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The disaffected majority
published: Wednesday | September 26, 2007
A lot is being made of the fact that on the preliminary count only 2,940 votes separate the PNP and the JLP in the 2007 popular vote. According to the preliminary count 808,140 persons voted: 402,275 persons for the PNP (49.8%) and 405,215 persons for the JLP (50.1%), with 650 persons voting for other parties (0.1%). The margin of victory is small, both in terms of popular vote and number of seats, and in this context the country may prove to be ungovernable.
However, this for me is not the most interesting statistic. The Electoral Office tells us that 1,336,214 persons were enumerated to vote, which means that 808,140 persons voted (60.5%), and that 528,074 eligible persons (39.5%) did not vote for one reason or another.
MORE PERSONS DID NOT VOTE AT ALL, THAN VOTED FOR EITHER THE PNP OR THE JLP.
Sometimes not voting is apathy, laziness or 'don't-cyah'; but sometimes not voting is a loud political statement. Sometimes people don't vote because they do not support either party: they want to say: "A pox on both your houses!"
Some people have assessed both parties and find neither attractive. Some have analysed the two manifestos and find both wanting. Some people of conscience cannot bring themselves to give their support to parties which have garrisons, gunmen and histories of corruption.
Options
Some people allow themselves to be enumerated not really intending to vote, but keeping their options open in case at the last moment they feel moved to. I don't know if either party should be happy with the fact that, should it turn out that many Jamaicans intentionally stayed away from the polls in protest, the protest vote may have won the election!
What message should the PNP and the JLP get from the results of this election? I submit that they should take seriously the fact that many Jamaicans are not happy with our political system from which both parties have benefited from time to time. I submit that a large number of Jamaicans are not happy with the corruption which is widespread in this land under both administrations. I believe that many Jamaicans are disgusted by a state which (over the years) has closed its eyes at violence perpetrated by its own agents against the people of the country. Neither party really has any reason to rejoice at this election result.
Protest
The analysis should not stop here. An even more profound protest would be to refuse to be enumerated at all! People who believe that the system is unredeemable, might choose to drop ou>How might we estimate the number of political dropouts? One way might be to take the number of persons eligible to vote (i.e. over 18 years old) and subtract the number on the voters list.
The 2001 Population Census revealed a total population 18 years and over of about 1.6 million people. That number would have increased since then, but to be conservative let us use the 2001 figure. This means that about 265,000 persons have not registered to vote; if these did register, the voters list would increase by about 20 per cent.
Using the census figure to assess the true democratic support received by each party, the PNP really received 25.1% of those eligible to vote, the JLP 25.3%, and those who did not cast any vote at all were a massive 49.5 per cent of the population - almost half of all Jamaicans 18 years old and over. Could it be that about half of our adult population is disaffected with our political culture?
Peter Espeut is a sociologist and is executive director of an environment and development NGO.
published: Wednesday | September 26, 2007
A lot is being made of the fact that on the preliminary count only 2,940 votes separate the PNP and the JLP in the 2007 popular vote. According to the preliminary count 808,140 persons voted: 402,275 persons for the PNP (49.8%) and 405,215 persons for the JLP (50.1%), with 650 persons voting for other parties (0.1%). The margin of victory is small, both in terms of popular vote and number of seats, and in this context the country may prove to be ungovernable.
However, this for me is not the most interesting statistic. The Electoral Office tells us that 1,336,214 persons were enumerated to vote, which means that 808,140 persons voted (60.5%), and that 528,074 eligible persons (39.5%) did not vote for one reason or another.
MORE PERSONS DID NOT VOTE AT ALL, THAN VOTED FOR EITHER THE PNP OR THE JLP.
Sometimes not voting is apathy, laziness or 'don't-cyah'; but sometimes not voting is a loud political statement. Sometimes people don't vote because they do not support either party: they want to say: "A pox on both your houses!"
Some people have assessed both parties and find neither attractive. Some have analysed the two manifestos and find both wanting. Some people of conscience cannot bring themselves to give their support to parties which have garrisons, gunmen and histories of corruption.
Options
Some people allow themselves to be enumerated not really intending to vote, but keeping their options open in case at the last moment they feel moved to. I don't know if either party should be happy with the fact that, should it turn out that many Jamaicans intentionally stayed away from the polls in protest, the protest vote may have won the election!
What message should the PNP and the JLP get from the results of this election? I submit that they should take seriously the fact that many Jamaicans are not happy with our political system from which both parties have benefited from time to time. I submit that a large number of Jamaicans are not happy with the corruption which is widespread in this land under both administrations. I believe that many Jamaicans are disgusted by a state which (over the years) has closed its eyes at violence perpetrated by its own agents against the people of the country. Neither party really has any reason to rejoice at this election result.
Protest
The analysis should not stop here. An even more profound protest would be to refuse to be enumerated at all! People who believe that the system is unredeemable, might choose to drop ou>How might we estimate the number of political dropouts? One way might be to take the number of persons eligible to vote (i.e. over 18 years old) and subtract the number on the voters list.
The 2001 Population Census revealed a total population 18 years and over of about 1.6 million people. That number would have increased since then, but to be conservative let us use the 2001 figure. This means that about 265,000 persons have not registered to vote; if these did register, the voters list would increase by about 20 per cent.
Using the census figure to assess the true democratic support received by each party, the PNP really received 25.1% of those eligible to vote, the JLP 25.3%, and those who did not cast any vote at all were a massive 49.5 per cent of the population - almost half of all Jamaicans 18 years old and over. Could it be that about half of our adult population is disaffected with our political culture?
Peter Espeut is a sociologist and is executive director of an environment and development NGO.
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