Jamaica’s average primary surplus of 7.3 per cent of GDP

[Sir X]

Using the same IMF World Economic Outlook data set, Jamaica’s average primary surplus of 7.3 per cent of GDP over 1990-2019 compares with an average deficit of 0.3 per cent of GDP at the eight fastest-growing peers, at similar levels of GDP per capita to Jamaica. That striking deviation from best practice resulted in annual average GDP growth per capita for Jamaica over that period of just 0.3 per cent, compared with 4 per cent for its best peers. That implies that had Jamaica applied the same policy discipline it took to sustain 7 per cent primary surpluses over 30 years to following the policy frameworks of its best peers — including primary deficits of 0.3 per cent — its GDP per capita would have been of the order of three times higher than it was in 2019.

That implied scale of output foregone not only reflected chronic sustained underspend by Jamaica on health and education which the report mentions in passing, but also major underspending on such things as the criminal justice system and on hurricane preparation and recovery. And it also reflected over-taxation — all measured relative to the conduct of the best peers. In these ways, Jamaica’s debt was repaid by sustained outlier primary surpluses, but at enormous evident cost to output.

https://www.ft.com/content/c78a1827-...e-c545a135f301

[Sir X]

So while one cannot but be awestruck at the sustained commitment displayed by Jamaican governments over three decades to meet their creditors’ debt repayment demands, the resultant stagnation means that this is emphatically not an example for the world to emulate, or for Jamaica to continue — as required under its latest IMF programme.

In other words , the great job that successive governments have done in reducing the debt , has come at a devastating cost of destroying our social infrastructure, schools, hospitals, housing, jobs etc . The JLP has failed economically ,our GDP hasnt moved , P.R pronouncements of the IMF patting this government on its back cannot and will never be translated to the masses. The irony is its passing IMF guidelines of debt reduction.