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Central message of the electorate
Analysis
Rickey Singh
Sunday, September 09, 2007
The Jamaican electorate not only voted for a change in government last Monday. They also seemed anxious to remind the country's two traditional handlers of state power to get their acts together for a new political culture in meaningful co-operation, in the national interest.
A quick reading of the results of both the last general election and that of Monday's, suggests that this mood for qualitative change in the governance politics of Jamaica may have been evident in the outcome of the 2002 poll won by the People's National Party (PNP), but even more strongly expressed in last week's change in favour of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
It would be to the credit of the new prime minister, Bruce Golding, and new opposition leader, Portia Simpson Miller, to reflect their own appreciation of the meaning of the electorate's verdict when the opportunities present themselves for "constructive engagement".
Interpretations of the election results of 2002 and 2007 would undoubtedly vary, and not only by the strategists, spin doctors, and leading decision-makers of both parties. However, an objective assessment of the verdicts delivered by the electorate at these two elections over five years appear to point the following:
1) A disturbing level of recurring boycotts of the poll by almost 40 per cent of registered voters; and,
2) An unmistakable cry for action to deal with the very sharp political divisions that the current winner-takes-all Westminster model, located in a first-past-the-post electoral system, cannot effectively address.
2002/2007 comparison
In 2002 when, under the leadership of P J Patterson, the PNP retained state power for an unprecedented fourth term, it did so with an eight-seat majority for the 60-member House of Representatives and a five per cent lead, or 37,027 more votes than were cast for the JLP's 26 seats. Total voter turnout was 56.7 per cent or 734,628.
For Monday's election, with a significantly revised electoral roll standing at 1.3 million, including some 50,000 new voters, the change in government came with the JLP securing 33 of the 60 constituencies to the PNP's 27, a six-seat majority after the initial nail-biting two-seat victory that was declared on the basis of preliminary results.
That's one aspect of the political picture. Another significant factor not to be overlooked is that while under the first-past-the-post system it is the majority of seats that count and not votes gained, the harsh reality is that less than 3,000 valid ballots separated the victor (JLP) and loser (PNP).
The arithmetic of the JLP's victory that frustrated the PNP's bid for a consecutive fifth term was, therefore, earned with approximately just half of one per cent of the 808,240 ballots cast.
That less than one per cent more popular votes, now translated into the JLP's plurality of six seats in the House of Representatives, resulted from its total of 405,215 ballots (or 50.1 per cent) compared with the 402,275 (or 49.7 per cent) secured by the PNP.
Conclusion! A timely, relevant reminder of Jamaica as a country politically divided down the middle in its 45th year of independence.
Contrary to earlier claims of one opinion pollster of about a "landslide" or "tsunami" for the JLP, victory against the PNP was snatched by the lowest percentage of popular votes and slimmest of parliamentary majority.
Blunders
In this context must be assessed the position of a disappointed outgoing Prime Minister Simpson Miller unfortunately choosing to cast her first post-election response in a negative mould when she said she would not "concede anything".
It would have been a good moment instead to commend the mass of her party's loyal supporters to have brought the PNP, against all the odds, very close to making a reality of her expressed desire to be Jamaica's first woman to secure an electoral mandate of her own to lead a government in Kingston.
That faux pas was corrected the following day with her conditional acceptance of defeat while stressing her party's involvement in overseeing the official counts in addition to pursuing legal challenges against successful JLP candidates allegedly holding dual citizenship.
Failure to call a snap general election within the first six months of her success in winning the presidency of the PNP to succeed Patterson as prime minister, as well as an unprecedented six-week-long election campaign are being recalled by her detractors as blunders that may have contributed to the defeat suffered on Monday, though coming very close to retaining power.
On reflection, the JLP's victory cannot be objectively analysed in isolation of the plenty money that vested interests reportedly had committed themselves to pour into that party's election campaign, and utilised in part to sustain a major media propaganda blitz superior to the PNP's.
The moneyed-class had earlier succeeded in helping the JLP to expose the "Trafigura funding scandal" that placed the PNP on the defensive.
Having rightly refunded that kind of campaign financing, it seemed to have placed the PNP at a serious disadvantage in obtaining help from local sources.
Accusations by opposition parties and anti-government forces about corruption, poor fiscal management, and economic policies are traditionally made against governments across the Caribbean. Both the JLP and PNP have had to experience such unflattering claims during their respective administrations.
The 'engagement'
Those interested in a more reasonable view of social and economic gains under the PNP, particularly in recent years of recovery from natural disasters, should perhaps read the 2006 annual report of the Caribbean Development Bank and compare relevant data with those of even robust economies in Caricom, such as Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados.
For now, with the election over and Bruce Golding fulfilling his and his father's dream as Jamaica's new prime minister, the eighth since Independence in 1962, there is need to focus on the message from the electorate.
Golding has done well in calling for "constructive engagement" with the PNP, after perhaps his own sober assessment of the election results.
In Opposition, he was clamouring for constitutional reform and changes in the system of governance long before he had succeeded Edward Seaga as JLP leader after returning to the party following the dismal performances of the National Democratic Movement that he had helped to form.
It is felt that the PNP would do well for itself, now and in the longer term, to reciprocate with its own concept and programme for meaningful "engagement" with the first-ever Golding-led JLP administration.
It is an administration that can hardly afford to ignore that its rise to power came with just half of one per cent more popular votes than was secured by the now parliamentary Opposition PNP.
The electorate has sent a clear and firm message that it is not business as usual for the Government and Opposition.
Analysis
Rickey Singh
Sunday, September 09, 2007
The Jamaican electorate not only voted for a change in government last Monday. They also seemed anxious to remind the country's two traditional handlers of state power to get their acts together for a new political culture in meaningful co-operation, in the national interest.
A quick reading of the results of both the last general election and that of Monday's, suggests that this mood for qualitative change in the governance politics of Jamaica may have been evident in the outcome of the 2002 poll won by the People's National Party (PNP), but even more strongly expressed in last week's change in favour of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
It would be to the credit of the new prime minister, Bruce Golding, and new opposition leader, Portia Simpson Miller, to reflect their own appreciation of the meaning of the electorate's verdict when the opportunities present themselves for "constructive engagement".
Interpretations of the election results of 2002 and 2007 would undoubtedly vary, and not only by the strategists, spin doctors, and leading decision-makers of both parties. However, an objective assessment of the verdicts delivered by the electorate at these two elections over five years appear to point the following:
1) A disturbing level of recurring boycotts of the poll by almost 40 per cent of registered voters; and,
2) An unmistakable cry for action to deal with the very sharp political divisions that the current winner-takes-all Westminster model, located in a first-past-the-post electoral system, cannot effectively address.
2002/2007 comparison
In 2002 when, under the leadership of P J Patterson, the PNP retained state power for an unprecedented fourth term, it did so with an eight-seat majority for the 60-member House of Representatives and a five per cent lead, or 37,027 more votes than were cast for the JLP's 26 seats. Total voter turnout was 56.7 per cent or 734,628.
For Monday's election, with a significantly revised electoral roll standing at 1.3 million, including some 50,000 new voters, the change in government came with the JLP securing 33 of the 60 constituencies to the PNP's 27, a six-seat majority after the initial nail-biting two-seat victory that was declared on the basis of preliminary results.
That's one aspect of the political picture. Another significant factor not to be overlooked is that while under the first-past-the-post system it is the majority of seats that count and not votes gained, the harsh reality is that less than 3,000 valid ballots separated the victor (JLP) and loser (PNP).
The arithmetic of the JLP's victory that frustrated the PNP's bid for a consecutive fifth term was, therefore, earned with approximately just half of one per cent of the 808,240 ballots cast.
That less than one per cent more popular votes, now translated into the JLP's plurality of six seats in the House of Representatives, resulted from its total of 405,215 ballots (or 50.1 per cent) compared with the 402,275 (or 49.7 per cent) secured by the PNP.
Conclusion! A timely, relevant reminder of Jamaica as a country politically divided down the middle in its 45th year of independence.
Contrary to earlier claims of one opinion pollster of about a "landslide" or "tsunami" for the JLP, victory against the PNP was snatched by the lowest percentage of popular votes and slimmest of parliamentary majority.
Blunders
In this context must be assessed the position of a disappointed outgoing Prime Minister Simpson Miller unfortunately choosing to cast her first post-election response in a negative mould when she said she would not "concede anything".
It would have been a good moment instead to commend the mass of her party's loyal supporters to have brought the PNP, against all the odds, very close to making a reality of her expressed desire to be Jamaica's first woman to secure an electoral mandate of her own to lead a government in Kingston.
That faux pas was corrected the following day with her conditional acceptance of defeat while stressing her party's involvement in overseeing the official counts in addition to pursuing legal challenges against successful JLP candidates allegedly holding dual citizenship.
Failure to call a snap general election within the first six months of her success in winning the presidency of the PNP to succeed Patterson as prime minister, as well as an unprecedented six-week-long election campaign are being recalled by her detractors as blunders that may have contributed to the defeat suffered on Monday, though coming very close to retaining power.
On reflection, the JLP's victory cannot be objectively analysed in isolation of the plenty money that vested interests reportedly had committed themselves to pour into that party's election campaign, and utilised in part to sustain a major media propaganda blitz superior to the PNP's.
The moneyed-class had earlier succeeded in helping the JLP to expose the "Trafigura funding scandal" that placed the PNP on the defensive.
Having rightly refunded that kind of campaign financing, it seemed to have placed the PNP at a serious disadvantage in obtaining help from local sources.
Accusations by opposition parties and anti-government forces about corruption, poor fiscal management, and economic policies are traditionally made against governments across the Caribbean. Both the JLP and PNP have had to experience such unflattering claims during their respective administrations.
The 'engagement'
Those interested in a more reasonable view of social and economic gains under the PNP, particularly in recent years of recovery from natural disasters, should perhaps read the 2006 annual report of the Caribbean Development Bank and compare relevant data with those of even robust economies in Caricom, such as Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados.
For now, with the election over and Bruce Golding fulfilling his and his father's dream as Jamaica's new prime minister, the eighth since Independence in 1962, there is need to focus on the message from the electorate.
Golding has done well in calling for "constructive engagement" with the PNP, after perhaps his own sober assessment of the election results.
In Opposition, he was clamouring for constitutional reform and changes in the system of governance long before he had succeeded Edward Seaga as JLP leader after returning to the party following the dismal performances of the National Democratic Movement that he had helped to form.
It is felt that the PNP would do well for itself, now and in the longer term, to reciprocate with its own concept and programme for meaningful "engagement" with the first-ever Golding-led JLP administration.
It is an administration that can hardly afford to ignore that its rise to power came with just half of one per cent more popular votes than was secured by the now parliamentary Opposition PNP.
The electorate has sent a clear and firm message that it is not business as usual for the Government and Opposition.
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