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I am not surprised
Michael Burke
Thursday, September 06, 2007
So the Jamaica Labour Party won the elections.
Congratulations are due to Bruce Golding and everyone in his party. This brings to an end the longest ever rule of one political party in Jamaica - 18 years. The People's National Party now goes into Opposition.
Some of us saw this win by the Jamaica Labour Party coming, just as it did. In Exodus 1: 6-8, we read: "And Joseph died and all his brethren and all that generation. And the children were fruitful, and increased abundantly, and multiplied, and waxed exceeding mighty, and the land was filled with them. Now there arose a new king over Egypt, which knew not Joseph."
This reminds me of the young voters who do not know a JLP government and want to experience one. They now have their wish. It also reminds me of my generation who did not know a hurricane. I was born in 1953, two years after Hurricane Charlie hit Jamaica. No matter how our parents and grandparents told us about hurricanes, we wanted to experience one. And both of my grandmothers, now dead many years, were graphic in their description of hurricanes.
I suspect that the more the PNP supporters told young people negatives about the JLP, the more they wanted to see a JLP government. But even after 18 years of PNP rule, some of the young people might have listened. Had they turned out in their large numbers to vote for the JLP, then the winning JLP might have won by a landslide.
I have often written that elections in Jamaica are not about issues. They are about who organises best and who provides the better rallies complete with songs and dances. The party that can hype the voters more will win. And if you add to that the need to have a change because the PNP ruled for 18 years, it was likely that there would be a change of government.
If you add the fact that 18 months ago the PNP had a long and bitter presidential race with four aspirants, none of whom got over 50 per cent of the delegates, you would expect that it would be difficult for the new president to reunite that party.
To refresh your memory, 3808 delegates voted. Eight votes were spoilt and 3800 were counted. Of that number, Portia Simpson Miller got the most votes, polling 1775, which was 125 short of 1900, half of 3800. Dr Peter Phillips polled 1538 votes, Dr Omar Davies 283 and Dr Karl Blythe 204. There was indeed a valiant attempt to reunite the PNP. Dr Paul Robertson, who was in the Peter Phillips camp, was the campaign manager of the PNP in the election just concluded.
But even with that there was still disunity. And the rumours of the existence of CAP (Comrades against Portia) did not help the situation. I do not know if any such organisation exists. I do not even know if it might be a mischievous fabrication by the PNP's opponents. Nevertheless, despite the most valiant attempts, Portia Simpson Miller had serious difficulties reuniting the PNP.
My Observer column of October 14, 2004 read, "Even if the charismatic Portia Simpson Miller becomes PNP president and prime minister, she might not be able to stop the Golding tide, given the fact that the PNP has served four terms in office. But if it loses the next election, the PNP might very well decide to match Bruce Golding with an intellectual like Peter Phillips or Omar Davies. And at that time, the PNP might revisit the idea of Paul Burke that the party president should not be the parliamentary leader."
When I wrote that opinion in 2004, Paul Burke had started a campaign for PNP president stating that he had no intention of being prime minister. He later withdrew his bid for the office. Some of what I wrote then are yet to come to pass. But there has always been a tendency to match a leader in terms of the sort of person with another of the same sort.
Up to the 1970s, trade unionism was integrally tied into Jamaica's politics. One of the factors in choosing Michael Manley over Vivian Blake in 1969 was that the PNP was in Opposition and trade unionist Hugh Shearer was prime minister. There was a feeling that a trade unionist should be chosen to match Hugh Shearer. I know, because I heard the arguments although I was only 15 at the time.
What is sad in all of this is that discussion of the issues is not really what wins elections in Jamaica. It is the organisation and the hype, which costs money. Those who say that Portia should have called the election earlier do not understand the role of money in an election. The very people who were being hyped up by others would not have voted.
And when asked they would have said, "PNP never let off". Portia knows this better than I, and that is the primary reason she waited. The other reason, of course, was that wounds had to be healed. Truth is, they are still not healed. It is my view that at this stage it is only Dr Peter Phillips who can reunite the PNP. But that issue will be dealt with in time.
Michael Burke
Thursday, September 06, 2007
So the Jamaica Labour Party won the elections.
Congratulations are due to Bruce Golding and everyone in his party. This brings to an end the longest ever rule of one political party in Jamaica - 18 years. The People's National Party now goes into Opposition.
Some of us saw this win by the Jamaica Labour Party coming, just as it did. In Exodus 1: 6-8, we read: "And Joseph died and all his brethren and all that generation. And the children were fruitful, and increased abundantly, and multiplied, and waxed exceeding mighty, and the land was filled with them. Now there arose a new king over Egypt, which knew not Joseph."
This reminds me of the young voters who do not know a JLP government and want to experience one. They now have their wish. It also reminds me of my generation who did not know a hurricane. I was born in 1953, two years after Hurricane Charlie hit Jamaica. No matter how our parents and grandparents told us about hurricanes, we wanted to experience one. And both of my grandmothers, now dead many years, were graphic in their description of hurricanes.
I suspect that the more the PNP supporters told young people negatives about the JLP, the more they wanted to see a JLP government. But even after 18 years of PNP rule, some of the young people might have listened. Had they turned out in their large numbers to vote for the JLP, then the winning JLP might have won by a landslide.
I have often written that elections in Jamaica are not about issues. They are about who organises best and who provides the better rallies complete with songs and dances. The party that can hype the voters more will win. And if you add to that the need to have a change because the PNP ruled for 18 years, it was likely that there would be a change of government.
If you add the fact that 18 months ago the PNP had a long and bitter presidential race with four aspirants, none of whom got over 50 per cent of the delegates, you would expect that it would be difficult for the new president to reunite that party.
To refresh your memory, 3808 delegates voted. Eight votes were spoilt and 3800 were counted. Of that number, Portia Simpson Miller got the most votes, polling 1775, which was 125 short of 1900, half of 3800. Dr Peter Phillips polled 1538 votes, Dr Omar Davies 283 and Dr Karl Blythe 204. There was indeed a valiant attempt to reunite the PNP. Dr Paul Robertson, who was in the Peter Phillips camp, was the campaign manager of the PNP in the election just concluded.
But even with that there was still disunity. And the rumours of the existence of CAP (Comrades against Portia) did not help the situation. I do not know if any such organisation exists. I do not even know if it might be a mischievous fabrication by the PNP's opponents. Nevertheless, despite the most valiant attempts, Portia Simpson Miller had serious difficulties reuniting the PNP.
My Observer column of October 14, 2004 read, "Even if the charismatic Portia Simpson Miller becomes PNP president and prime minister, she might not be able to stop the Golding tide, given the fact that the PNP has served four terms in office. But if it loses the next election, the PNP might very well decide to match Bruce Golding with an intellectual like Peter Phillips or Omar Davies. And at that time, the PNP might revisit the idea of Paul Burke that the party president should not be the parliamentary leader."
When I wrote that opinion in 2004, Paul Burke had started a campaign for PNP president stating that he had no intention of being prime minister. He later withdrew his bid for the office. Some of what I wrote then are yet to come to pass. But there has always been a tendency to match a leader in terms of the sort of person with another of the same sort.
Up to the 1970s, trade unionism was integrally tied into Jamaica's politics. One of the factors in choosing Michael Manley over Vivian Blake in 1969 was that the PNP was in Opposition and trade unionist Hugh Shearer was prime minister. There was a feeling that a trade unionist should be chosen to match Hugh Shearer. I know, because I heard the arguments although I was only 15 at the time.
What is sad in all of this is that discussion of the issues is not really what wins elections in Jamaica. It is the organisation and the hype, which costs money. Those who say that Portia should have called the election earlier do not understand the role of money in an election. The very people who were being hyped up by others would not have voted.
And when asked they would have said, "PNP never let off". Portia knows this better than I, and that is the primary reason she waited. The other reason, of course, was that wounds had to be healed. Truth is, they are still not healed. It is my view that at this stage it is only Dr Peter Phillips who can reunite the PNP. But that issue will be dealt with in time.