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What’s in store for the losing leader?
By Kimmo Matthews
Staff Reporter
The many months of preparation and political campaigning for tomorrow’s General Election are now over and Jamaicans in their numbers will be moving to cast their ballots another time around.
Some political analysts believe the elections will not only decide which party will govern the country for the next five years, but could also herald the end of several high-level political careers, especially that of the leader of the losing party.
The analysts, who spoke with the Sunday Herald last week, contended that Jamaica’s 15th General Election since Adult Suffrage will have much deeper implications than many persons have seemingly assumed.
They argued that after many months of mobilising resources, the two main political parties were ready for the day of reckoning, as the political atmosphere was now as charged as it could ever be.
The Parties
For the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the analyst said that after 18 and a half years in the political wilderness, the party, with its new leader Bruce Golding, was desperately banking on victory at the polls.
For the People’s National Party (PNP), the analyst said that after the same period in power, the party, with its new leader Portia Simpson Miller, was hoping to be given a fifth term in office.
Analysts like Dr. Paul Ashley, said the time immediately ahead would be very interesting.
“Both leaders have done all they can do. For the one who is not successful, I don’t see him or her assuming the leadership role in his/her respective party as the Leader of Opposition,” Dr. Ashley said.
In emphasising his point, Dr. Ashley said: “For Simpson Miller, I do not think she is equipped to be the Leader of the Opposition and I think Bruce Golding would be tired of trying (and failing).”
Two other political analysts who requested anonymity, agreed with Dr. Ashley. They argued that based on the atmosphere in the two main political parties, it would be very difficult for the leader of the losing party.
However, while Dr. Ashley and the two anonymous analysts felt that way, other analysts, such as Lloyd B. Smith, felt differently.
“…It would seem to me that Golding would be hard pressed to continue to remain the leader of the JLP, should the party lose this election,” Smith said. “But there is still a possibility that if he loses he could bounce back, as he is a fairly young man,” Smith added.
JLP Backing
But he made another significant point against the likelihood of Golding retaining the party leadership on a loosing ticket.
“Although he (Golding) has done what one would regard as a very good job in terms of reuniting the party and giving it a good, fighting chance for the elections, the reality is that the party has been subjected to a lot of very big money backers who have put all their faith and trust in his ability to bring home the elections,” Smith said.
“If he were not to do so, I think there would be a serious amount of faults, that he would be perhaps forced to step aside,” Smith continued.
As for the PNP, Smith said, “the reality is that it is no secret that there are elements in the PNP who are not comfortable with her (Simpson Miller) as leader and as Prime Minister,” and a loss for the party could see her being forced out.
He, however, said there was also the chance that she could bounce back, as she was a leader with a lot of influence.
“Both leaders have a-lot to lose in this election, and based on how things pan out, it could mean that either of them could head for the political wilderness if their party should lose,” Smith said.
He was, however, keen to say that in the case of both parties, there was a possibility that the losing leader could be forced to take a back seat and likely bounce back after a few years.
By Kimmo Matthews
Staff Reporter
The many months of preparation and political campaigning for tomorrow’s General Election are now over and Jamaicans in their numbers will be moving to cast their ballots another time around.
Some political analysts believe the elections will not only decide which party will govern the country for the next five years, but could also herald the end of several high-level political careers, especially that of the leader of the losing party.
The analysts, who spoke with the Sunday Herald last week, contended that Jamaica’s 15th General Election since Adult Suffrage will have much deeper implications than many persons have seemingly assumed.
They argued that after many months of mobilising resources, the two main political parties were ready for the day of reckoning, as the political atmosphere was now as charged as it could ever be.
The Parties
For the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the analyst said that after 18 and a half years in the political wilderness, the party, with its new leader Bruce Golding, was desperately banking on victory at the polls.
For the People’s National Party (PNP), the analyst said that after the same period in power, the party, with its new leader Portia Simpson Miller, was hoping to be given a fifth term in office.
Analysts like Dr. Paul Ashley, said the time immediately ahead would be very interesting.
“Both leaders have done all they can do. For the one who is not successful, I don’t see him or her assuming the leadership role in his/her respective party as the Leader of Opposition,” Dr. Ashley said.
In emphasising his point, Dr. Ashley said: “For Simpson Miller, I do not think she is equipped to be the Leader of the Opposition and I think Bruce Golding would be tired of trying (and failing).”
Two other political analysts who requested anonymity, agreed with Dr. Ashley. They argued that based on the atmosphere in the two main political parties, it would be very difficult for the leader of the losing party.
However, while Dr. Ashley and the two anonymous analysts felt that way, other analysts, such as Lloyd B. Smith, felt differently.
“…It would seem to me that Golding would be hard pressed to continue to remain the leader of the JLP, should the party lose this election,” Smith said. “But there is still a possibility that if he loses he could bounce back, as he is a fairly young man,” Smith added.
JLP Backing
But he made another significant point against the likelihood of Golding retaining the party leadership on a loosing ticket.
“Although he (Golding) has done what one would regard as a very good job in terms of reuniting the party and giving it a good, fighting chance for the elections, the reality is that the party has been subjected to a lot of very big money backers who have put all their faith and trust in his ability to bring home the elections,” Smith said.
“If he were not to do so, I think there would be a serious amount of faults, that he would be perhaps forced to step aside,” Smith continued.
As for the PNP, Smith said, “the reality is that it is no secret that there are elements in the PNP who are not comfortable with her (Simpson Miller) as leader and as Prime Minister,” and a loss for the party could see her being forced out.
He, however, said there was also the chance that she could bounce back, as she was a leader with a lot of influence.
“Both leaders have a-lot to lose in this election, and based on how things pan out, it could mean that either of them could head for the political wilderness if their party should lose,” Smith said.
He was, however, keen to say that in the case of both parties, there was a possibility that the losing leader could be forced to take a back seat and likely bounce back after a few years.
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