Now, it is the turn of the voter

[Karl]

Now, it is the turn of the voter
Claude Robinson
Sunday, September 02, 2007


One of the longest and most unusual election campaigns in our history is, thankfully, over and the electorate will decide tomorrow whether to make a change or stay the course charted by three People's National Party (PNP) administrations since 1989.

Claude Robinson
Leaders of the governing PNP and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have criss-crossed the country promising to do what has never been done before. They have issued glossy documents with commitments that voters are asked to take seriously.

Radio and television audiences have been bombarded with an 'air war' in which each party has attacked the other and poked fun at their opponents.

In their manifesto, the PNP promised to build on the economic platform built over the past 18 years in government and take Jamaica to "developed country status in this generation so that our people will enjoy all the benefits of living in a quality society".

Among other things, this meant achieving average GDP growth of 6-7 % a year over the next five years, according to PNP president and prime minister Portia Simpson Miller.

She also promised that the PNP would double per capita GDP within 10-12 years; reduce youth unemployment by 30%; improve the human development indicators by 5% per annum for health, education, social welfare and the environment over the next decade.

JLP leader Bruce Golding has stressed a new framework for good governance, about reducing the power of the executive and increasing the power of Parliament; establishing a platform for economic growth by making the country more business friendly; promised to reduce crime, improve education and offer free and good health care to everyone.

Both have promised to increase the size of the Police Force by 50 per cent in short order as part of a raft of measures to reduce violent crime.
The pollsters have also had their say. Mark Wignall (Sunday Observer) gave the JLP an 11-point lead; Bill Johnson (Daily Gleaner) had the JLP four points ahead; Don Anderson (Daily Observer) Thursday had the JLP trailing by a one per cent margin, thus placing the parties in a statistical dead heat.

Now that we have heard from those seeking office as well as polling and media pundits, it is now up to the voters and, if the 72% turnout by security and election day workers is any guide, then we could very well see a higher turnout than has been the case in recent elections.

Clearly, all these numbers cannot be right. However, when they are examined in relation to trends over the past several months, they do indicate that momentum is on the side of the JLP. However, while polls do have some predictive power, elections are only won after the ballots have been cast and counted.

Battleground seats
So while the parties will draw whatever positives they can from the poll numbers and other indicators, they know from experience that the only result that really matters is what happens tomorrow and that result depends a great deal on execution, on getting supporters to the polling stations.

Both sides will be paying particular attention to the large number of marginal constituencies where even a small swing can see several of these moving from one side to the other.

In 2002, when the PNP won 36 seats to 24 for the JLP, 19 constituencies were won by margins of five per cent or less. In many cases only a few hundred votes separated winner from loser. Of these marginal seats the PNP had nine and the JLP 10.

In addition, some constituencies won by comfortable majorities are now considered marginal by some experts because of local conditions, including candidate selection and boundary changes in parishes with significant population growth. St James and St Catherine were the parishes most affected by population shifts.

For example, the shift in numbers suggest that the JLP seat in St James East Central has become safer while another JLP seat, St James North Western held by deputy leader Horace Chang, has become competitive.
Based on the 2002 results and other factors the latest Don Anderson-CVM poll identified 18 constituencies as marginal. In 2002, the JLP won 10 of these seats while the PNP won 8.

Anderson's findings, released on CVM-TV last Wednesday, showed each party leading in nine of the marginal seats.

The PNP was leading in Portland West (Abe Dabdoub over Daryl Vaz); St Mary Western (Harry Douglas over Tarn Peralto); St Ann North West North West (Michael Whittingham over Othneil Lawrence); St Elizabeth South East (Norman Horne over Franklyn Witter); Clarendon North West (Richard Azan over Michael Stern); Clarendon North (Horace Dally over Laurie Broderick); St Andrew South East (Maxine Henry-Wilson over Joan Gordon Webley); St Andrew Eastern (Trevor Munroe over St Aubyn Bartlett); St Catherine North East (Phyllis Mitchell over Gregory Mair).

The JLP was leading in St Mary Western (Bobby Montague over Delano Franklyn); St James East Central (Edmund Bartlett over Donald Colomathi); St James West Central (Clive Mullings over Francis Tulloch); Hanover East (Barrington Gray over DK Duncan); St Elizabeth North West (JC Hutchinson over Ann-Marie Warburton); St Elizabeth South East (Christopher Tufton over Stanley Redwood); Manchester North East (Audley Shaw over Paul Lyn); Clarendon South East (Ruddy Spencer over Sean Barnswell) and St Andrew, West Rural, (Andrew Gallimore over Andrea Moore).

Interestingly, when the data is further analysed, it shows that the JLP lead in six of the constituencies where it is ahead is more than the poll's margin of error while there are only three such cases for the PNP.

So, if the momentum shown by the polls is valid and if it is maintained through to Election Day tomorrow then the JLP would seem to be in the stronger position to pick up more marginal seats than it drops.

On the other hand, if the PNP gets a last-minute surge from the final days of the campaign it could pick up enough of the marginal seats to cross the finish line ahead.

Hurricane Dean Factor
But, of course, there are several other factors that could influence the results besides the momentum, perceived or actual. These include the impact of the last week of the campaign, including advertising and the articulation of issues critical to the more independent voter who is not 'tribally' linked to either the PNP or the JLP.

The impact of Hurricane Dean on the personal lives and mental state of mind of voters in those constituencies that have been badly affected on the island's south coast as well as the response of governmental and political figures could also be a factor.

Before the hurricane, the JLP appeared to run a more structured and organised campaign, apparently drawing from the playbook the PNP had mastered over several decades.

This was evident in the advertising which stayed on message of attacking the prime minister's capability to manage the Government. They have also been hammering away at the 'change' perception, that is, the Government has grown tired and arrogant after 18 years.

While polls and anecdotes indicate that the JLP advertising campaign has been effective in attracting independent voters it could also have the effect of energising Mrs Simpson Miller's grassroots base who regards some of the ads as disrespectful.

On their part, the PNP advertising campaign, which was uncertain in the early stages, settled down in the last week attacking Mr Golding on the 'trust' factor and using the hurricane relief efforts to portray Mrs Simpson Miller as caring and compassionate.

Advertising apart, Dean can be a plus for the PNP if the Government is perceived as doing a good job in relief and recovery. It could also be a burden because people who do not have food and roof, and water and light are going to be angry at the authorities even if the government's overall performance has been creditable as, indeed, it has.

Another factor that could influence turnout is violence. In the last days of the campaign there have been a marked increase in the incidence of politically related violence and death and late Thursday it appeared that the commissioner of police would shut down campaign activities in the Corporate Area and St Catherine.

That would be welcome for most voters, I believe. We have been polled and canvassed and cajoled for too long. There is no new message to be heard. What's needed now is to have the election conducted in a peaceful manner.

The stakes are high and careers could be on the line. But, whatever the outcome in terms of which party forms the Government and which is asked to be the Opposition it is essential that the will of the people be accepted peacefully and democratically so that the country can quickly get back to the hard task of governing and managing a fragile society.

Somebody is going to lose tomorrow night. There should be recrimination and scapegoating. However we may feel we must accept the results of the election as a reflection of the will of the people. Those with new jobs to do should be allowed to get on with it and the others simply move on to life after an election.


kcr@cwjamaica.com

[Gamma]

suh karl, using your logic, are we to assume that the pnp staged the fatal attack in mandeville?

[Karl]

All the pundits say JLP win!
Where is Maudib and Balla when you need them?

...on the hustlings, I guess?

[Karl]

Caricom's third in a row - Will Portia prove pollsters wrong?

Analysis
Rickey Singh
Sunday, September 02, 2007


If it happens in Jamaica tomorrow to the governing People's National Party (PNP) as some political scientists think likely, it would be a hat trick in electoral defeats for incumbent parties within our Caribbean Community in less than nine months.


Rickey Singh

Tomorrow's election is the third in a row within Caricom since December last year, two of them resulting in loss of power by the incumbents.

This is an omen or prognosis that Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller can be expected to openly dismiss as she desperately seeks to prove wrong the opinion polls that have forecast a dead heat, at best, between her PNP and Bruce Golding's Jamaica Labour Party. Or, at worse, defeat.

The reputation of the pollsters for both the Observer (Don Anderson) and the Gleaner (Bill Johnson) are as much at stake as that of party "strategists" whose research and analyses would have been vital in helping to shape the election campaign.

For example, in both the cases of St Lucia's December 11, 2006 general elections, as well as that of the May 2 national poll in The Bahamas, the "Bill Johnson Poll" was proven wrong in his projected outcomes.

He could perhaps take some comfort in the fact that also wrong in their respective assessment were the then incumbents in St Lucia (Dr Kenny Anthony's Labour Party) and Perry Christie's Progressive Party (PLP) in The Bahamas.

This is a pattern that Prime Minister Simpson Miller thinks she could avoid in Jamaica tomorrow, to become, against the odds, the country's first woman to secure an electoral victory mandate for the PNP.

In February last year, after emerging victorious to succeed the retired P J Patterson as party president and head of government, she was hailed by then St Lucia Prime Minister Anthony for a "triumph" that was not only personal but one "for all women of Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean..."

Less than 10 months later, Anthony's SLP was to lose its bid for a third consecutive term in a remarkable return to power of the United Workers Party of the 82 year-old Sir John Compton that captured 11 of the 17 parliamentary seats to the SLP's six.

Currently, speculations are on the increase for the SLP's return to power amid growing concerns about the UWP's longevity in government as Sir John's illness hastens his planned retirement from politics before year-end.

In The Bahamas, the defeat in May of Perry Christie's one-term Progressive Liberal Party's administration by Hubert Ingraham's Free National Movement (FNM) with a five-seat majority, though with just over two per cent of the popular valid votes, was as surprising as that of Anthony's SLP.

Coming poll battles
Two and three consecutive terms have largely been the norm in most Caricom states with scheduled free and fair elections. The outstanding exceptions, since 1992, have been the fourth consecutive terms won respectively in Guyana by the People's Progressive Party (PPP) and in Jamaica by the PNP.

In the eastern Caribbean, the ruling Barbados Labour Party of Prime Minister Owen Arthur is hoping to create its own electoral history with an anticipated fourth consecutive victory before the end of the year or early in 2008.

David Thompson's Democratic Labour Party is planning to dash such hopes as it engages in new strategies to end its period as the parliamentary opposition since the party lost power in 1994 under the leadership of then Prime Minister Erskine Sandiford. It is an enormous challenge with the BLP's current 23-7 majority in the 30-member parliament.

Also optimistic, like the BLP, to retain power in coming elections in Trinidad and Tobago, is Prime Minister Patrick Manning's incumbent People's National Movement (PNM) that currently has a four-seat majority in the 36-member House of Representatives.

The PNM has the distinct advantage of facing a sharply divided opposition and an economy floating on billions of dollars from oil and natural gas revenue to help facilitate vote-catching "pork-barrel" projects.
It seems only a question of the margin of the PNM's victory for the new 41-member House of Representatives.

In contrast, there are indicators of likely changes in government at new elections next year in both Belize and Grenada, where they are due in March and November respectively.

In Belize Prime Minister Said Musa's People's United Party (PUP), which won 22 of the 29 parliamentary seats at the last general election, has been coming under increasingly intense pressures over its policies and management, with changes in cabinet and policy directives failing to have the desired impact.

Deane Barrow's opposition United Democratic Party (UDP), which had a dismal showing with merely seven seats in the 2003 election, is brimming with confidence of frustrating the PUP from securing a third term when the election bell rings for the 2008 poll.

Significantly, across in Grenada in the Eastern Caribbean, the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) is also optimistic of preventing Prime Minister Keith Mitchell's incumbent New National Party (NNP) from a third term at fresh election that could come long before November 2008.

The NNP had retained power with a mere one-seat majority at the last election.

For now, the immediate focus is what happens in Jamaica tomorrow as the long, bruising seven-week election campaign, disrupted by Hurricane Dean, comes to a close this evening.

A decisive factor would be the extent to which the parties succeed in rousing sufficient enthusiasm among supporters, particularly those affected by Deane, to go out and vote.

For the last election, at which the PNP retained power with an eight-seat majority for the 60-member House of Representatives, voter turnout was 56.7 percent. Director of Elections Danville Walker feels that there would be "a much higher response" for tomorrow's poll.

Approximately 1.3 million Jamaicans are eligible to determine which party achieves the prize of state power for the next five years.

[Gamma]

4th although not caricom ..bvi