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Finsac - A response to columnist Wilberne Persaud

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  • Finsac - A response to columnist Wilberne Persaud

    Finsac and the 'mismanagement' of the financial sector crisis - A response to columnist Wilberne Persaud
    published: Friday | August 31, 2007



    Paul Chen-Young, Economist and Investment Banker
    Dr. Paul Chen Young on the cover of his book: 'The Entrepreneurial Journey in Jamaica', which details the fall of his finacial group, which he blamed largely on misplaced government policies. - File


    In a Letter to the Editor
    Having read the recent articles by your business columnist, Mr. Wilberne Persuad, about the demise of the domestic financial sector and Finsac where he has sought to rebut analyses and views that I have expressed, I am responding to a few matters of substance that he has addressed.

    It is relevant for readers to knowthat Mr. Persuad served as a director of Finsac and is also a close ally of Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies. Both were lecturers at the University of the West Indies.

    Mr. Persaud was very involved as a policymaker at Finsac and readers can draw their own conclusions as to whether he is biased from the material presented and the tone that is reflected in his writing.

    It is instructive to quote the promo to his book, Jamaica Meltdown: "Unwarranted optimism guided Jamaica's indigenous financial sector institutions. They converted cash to speculative investments. Driven more by egos than economics they built grand head offices - dubbed the 'edifice complex' by one of Jamaica's most successful businessmen. Some of their activities skirted legal lines. The Courts adjudged others outright fraud. This general attitude and euphoric behaviours always precede a crash."

    Such writing is emotive and in parts factually wrong. I am not aware of any of the principal players being charged with fraud. The mindset of Mr. Persuad is clear. It is not surprising that his writings are strong on opinions but short on objective analyses. This makes them merely polemic.

    In one of his columns he made the extraordinary claim that there was no financial crisis in the financial sector in Jamaica. One has to ask whether Mr. Persuad lives in the real world. Any commentary that follows must be clouded by this outrageous assertion.

    Firewall
    In another column, he quotes extensively from his book and states the following: "The previously existing firewall constructed between and among banking, insurance, money management, and other financial services was jettisoned like so much useless ballast."

    In actuality, there has never been any legal restriction against the creation of financial conglomerates and Eagle was foremost in this strategy. Former Bank of Jamaica Governor Bussieres and Minister Davies echoed sentiments against financial conglomerates, much to their disadvantage.

    The financial legislation, which Minister Davies enacted, imposes no restriction against financial conglomerates. Today we see such staid financial institutions like the Bank of Nova Scotia expanding into insurance and brokerage services.

    In the views that I have expressed about the demise of the domestic financial sector, I have always maintained that management of these entities must share in the blame. Strategic investment strategy mistakes were made, and these did not happen in a vacuum. The financial policies of Minister Davies contributed significantly to the problem.

    One of the mistakes made by the nationally owned financial entities was the mismatch of assets and liabilities, that is, using short term funds to lend and invest long.
    This is generally to be avoided from a risk management viewpoint. But that is theoretical.

    The "Economic Focus" column of the August 18, 2007 issue of the Economist magazine states: "However much marble they lay in their foyers, banks have been brittle institutions. They borrow short [collecting deposits or short term loans that might have to be repaid quickly] and lend long [making loans that cannot easily be converted into cash at anything close to their value at the bank]."

    The quotation above correctly reflects how funds are raised and used by the banking system in the real world. In times of stability that mismatch of funds works fine.

    But when there is instability in the financial markets, as Jamaica experienced in the 1990s, as a result of unstable financial policies, it is inevitable that financial institutions which do not have a heavy concentration of Government paper in their portfolios will get into trouble. And that was what happened in Jamaica.

    In any serious analysis of widespread dislocation of enterprises, a distinction has to be made as to whether it is a problem associated with an enterprise or whether it is a sector problem.

    Where it is an enterprise problem, then specific action can be taken against those specific enterprises.

    But where the problems are throughout the sector there is a systemic problem, which suggests that the problems that face enterprises are widespread and intervention of the Authorities is warranted.

    I have argued that the problems that faced the financial sector were not caused just by managerial investment strategy mistakes, which did occur, but by unstable Government financial policies that resulted in sustained periods of high inflation, high interest rates and devaluations.
    The reality is that the problems extended throughout most of the financial sector and was not limited to an enterprise.

    The heavy handed manner in which Century Bank was handled created the impression that it was only that bank that had problems. I recall Minister Davies making a public statement that there was no systemic problem. He was to be proven wrong.

    And so Finsac was formed.

    True that the Government took a very deliberate and costly decision to bail out depositors and insurance policy holders — and not the shareholders of the troubled entities, except to certain entities like National Commercial Bank, where preferential treatment was meted out to shareholders who benefited from the massive Government support to the bank.

    The main beneficiary was Jamaica National Building Society while Victoria Mutual Building Society suffered losses from the collapse of Island Victoria Bank.

    Mr. Persuad writes that: "The IMF publicly mandated that NCB was to be sold by a certain date."
    It is astonishing that he could have used that rationale to draw his conclusions about the sale of financial entities since Jamaica has no formal loan agreement with the IMF. This is a fact about which the Minister of Finance has boasted on numerous occasions.

    The issue surrounding Finsac is not about bailing out depositors and policyholders. It is about the mismanagement of a crisis and the failure of Government to provide any leadership to restructure the sector. Simply taking liability for bad loans and cleaning up the balance sheets of the entities before selling them off is not leadership. It was a very costly course to have pursued-both financially and from a balance of payments perspective.

    The sector should have been restructured by mergers and consolidation with change in boards of directors and management, where justified, that would allow for strong bargaining for joint ventures with overseas financial institutions.

    Joint ventures have been the path undertaken by most countries that have experienced a crisis in the financial sector, as well as those which have liberalised the sector to foreign participation.

    It makes sense since the domestic financial sector - and the country - benefits from foreign capital, closer links to the international capital markets, management and technical expertise.

    It also has the significant advantage of reducing investment capital outflows, instead of where banks and insurance companies are just sold off.

    The Authorities did not encourage joint ventures and took an antagonistic attitude towards those who were at the helm of the domestic financial sector. It was clear that there was no intention by FINSAC to collaborate with those decision makers who were involved. And where any understanding about restructuring was reached they were simply arbitrarily discarded by Finsac as in the case of Eagle. This, I am told, was also the case with other financial entities.

    The model of joint ventures was given no serious consideration by the Authorities and I believe that this was a big mistake. I can say for sure that there was definite interest by the Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago in undertaking a joint venture with Island Victoria Bank since meetings were held at high levels with the ownership of both institutions.

    An understanding was reached on how the joint venture would be structured and attempts were made to obtain the blessing of Bank of Jamaica and the Ministry of Finance. No encouragement was given.
    Directors at the Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago must have been ecstatic when they got the full ownership of one of the then best run commercial banks [Eagle Commercial Bank] along with Workers Bank with a clean balance sheet, after Finsac involvement.

    It is their good fortune that they were handed such a gift on a platter, because those in charge apparently had no vision about the future of the financial sector, and no understanding of the harmful economic consequences of their action.

    In most countries that have experienced turmoil in the financial sector speedy action is taken by the Authorities to intervene and to help restore order. The financial sector is like no other sector. This is what is described as the "commanding heights of the economy", from which there are numerous implications for credit policy and the use of a country's financial resources.

    It is because of this reason why then Minister of Finance, Mr. Edward Seaga, embarked on the successful "Jamaicanisation" programme of the financial sector in the 1960s.

    It took over 30 years for Jamaicans to develop a comprehensive — and sophisticated — financial sector that Finance Minister Davies dismantled in just about two years.

    The revitalisation and building of hotels in the 1990s, including the divestment of Government owned hotels, is the best example of how the financial sector — owned and controlled by Jamaicans — played a vital role in the country's development.

    Overseas owned banks sat on the sidelines and escaped the meltdown as ruinous high interest rates and inflation crushed the now maligned indigenous entities which committed resources to helping to develop the country.

    What is often overlooked is that in most developed and successful countries there are investment banks which play a dynamic role in fostering investment. Jamaica had none. The development bank did not lend directly but used the commercial and merchant banks as intermediaries to lend to tourism, manufacturing and agriculture. Combined with funds raised from the public, these banks and life insurance companies filled the void by providing much needed investment banking service. But there were risks,and in a volatile financial environment, they ran into trouble.

    In my letter of August 5, 2007 to the Jamaica Observer I said that : "The new owners are risk averse and we can expect to see no major initiative being taken to support investments in the productive sector, except in the case of National Commercial Bank" because the controlling ownership is in the hands of Mr. Michael Lee Chin.

    "Jamaica can expect no leadership from these entities in the development effort". On his reference to lending, Mr. Persuad misses the substantive point that they will be very conservative by concentrating on "Government paper, trading in securities, providing loans for more consumption and providing mortgages."

    Apart from the loss of national control of these "commanding heights" profits from these financial companies — for which total blame must be placed on the Directors of FINSAC and the Minister of Finance — to overseas owners will be a serious and continuous drag on the country's balance of payments.

    Jamaica is running increasingly large trade deficits. The country has compounded the situation by increasing deficits on the investment income account to pay overseas owners to whom we have sold off well established and properly staffed financial institutions.

    This fundamental strategic mistake is not surprising when one looks at the composition of the Board of Directors of Finsac. None had any successful business experience to be able to deal with the tough task of restructuring the troubled financial sector.

    They were all probably well intentioned, but misplaced their priority by relying more heavily on forensic auditors rather than on experienced investment bankers.

    This misguided bias no doubt reflected the will of the person ultimately responsible for policy direction, Dr. Omar Davies, who sadly demonstrated no sense of vision for the financial sector and was more bent on finding scapegoats rather constructive rebuilding.
    And so Finsac failed in the fundamental task of any meaningful restructuring of thedomestic financial sector, and we have compounded our balance of payments problem by the massive sell-off to overseas companies.
    "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

  • #2
    having said that.. abredrin of mine was brought in from the states to do work on finsac and the restructuring and there was a great deal of hocus pocus being carried on by the bank managers and senior executives....i'm sure that is not what mr chen young is referring to when he said that the "instituions made some mistakes" or words to that effect....but it was corrupt some of the things that were going on.....lazie will remember me referring him to the negril negril case a few years ago...

    Infidelity does not consist in believing, or in disbelieving; it consists in professing to believe what he does not believe. Thomas Paine

    Comment


    • #3
      Demystifying the financial meltdown: a response to Chen-Youn

      Demystifying the financial meltdown: a response to Chen-Young on mismanagement
      published: Sunday | September 23, 2007


      Wilberne Persaud, Columnist


      (Left)Former Island Life chief executive Oliver Jones ... could have ended up as mogul of insurance industry with patience. - File

      (Middle)Former Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies... his policies were publicly criticised. - File
      (Right)Dr. Paul Chen Young... was a principal of one of the entities that collapsed. - Winston Sill/Freelance Photographer


      My reason for debate and discussion of the indigenous financial service meltdown of the mid-1990s is simple: to avoid repetition of similar costly mistakes.

      Dr. Paul Chen-Young's latest comment continues to rely on flawed analysis of the issues. Initially, I was heartened. He was responding to "a few matters of substance" that I had addressed.

      Sadly, anticipation of debate on substance was short-lived. Indeed, it did not survive even one sentence.

      Purporting to respond to matters of substance, he instead begins by personal attack - quite a good strategy, for confusion though not truth - creating and distorting a picture of the messenger.

      My first inclination is to step back and across, lifting the bat - classic leave alone. I fear nevertheless, even though I shall not respond in kind, I do have to spend some column inches in rebuttal.

      Chen-Young claims I am "a close ally" of now former Minister of Finance Dr. Omar Davies, saying, "Both were lecturers at the University of the West Indies." He also suggests that readers be informed that I was "involved as a policymaker at Finsac." These two 'facts' he implies, constitute bias.

      First, readers of my Financial Gleaner columns on the meltdown are aware that I immediately declared interest by indicating my connection to Finsac as a board member.

      Far from making me biased, on the contrary, it allows me to combine professional training and experience with an almost unique perspective for understanding the issues.

      I set out a view with reasons for the conclusions reached. My views can be contested, they are not opinions plucked from the sky.
      The logic, the reasoning has to be demonstrated as faulty in order to refute my conclusions.

      Never would I suggest Chen-Young is biased merely because he was a principal of one of the indigenous entities that collapsed. I was, still am, contesting the basis of his views as technically unsustainable.

      FIREWALL
      Second, I have consistently written columns critical of issues of governance, problems of develop-ment, the scourge of 'cost overruns', inattention to technological change and the like.

      Surely, Davies would have found it difficult to maintain 'a close ally' who would publicly highlight issues within his portfolio that needed to be remedied for good governance and development.

      I attempt to be analytical rather than political. I can only insist that the 'real environment', the 100C temperature at which water boils at sea level, does not bow to politics.

      I now turn to the "few matters of substance". I highlight those that I feel will shed the most light for an interested public.

      I spoke of a firewall among banking, insurance and other activities in the financial-services sector and those of the 'real sector' - real-estate development, hotel trade, car rental activities, etc.

      Anyone who has ever applied for a loan knows his banker is more familiar with his financial condition than his closest friend, even spouse at times. A commercial bank is not allowed to be in the business of 'real', that is, goods and trade, as opposed to the 'financial' sector.

      Imagine this: Small Jamaican entrepreneur seeks credit facilities from French footwear manufacturer. French manufacturer will grant 180-day credit subject to report from client's bank.
      The bank is part of a group that also sells/produces footwear. Huge conflict of interest here.

      Consider a bank lending to a client to purchase real estate only to repossess the property for its own use when he is unable to pay the loan.
      Indeed, during the meltdown at least one borrower accused a lender of coveting his property, charging high interest rates ultimately repossessing it. Chen-Young asserts: "There has never been any legal restriction against the creation of financial conglomerates and Eagle was foremost in this strategy."

      Correct. There was, still is, no legal restriction against conglomerates.

      The problem with conglomerates when there are inadequate regulations and oversight is that enormous temptation and avenues for bad decisions and impropriety exist.

      Chen-Young himself cites the case of Mutual Life Assurance Society borrowing multiples of the bank's capital base from its partially owned commercial bank.

      Existence of a 'firewall' was not posited as a part of law.

      It was a matter of custom in the previous regime of foreign commercial branch banking. Indigenous financial institutions facing troubles, used their conglomerate structure to practise regulatory arbitrage - the mechanism of hiding improper transactions from financial system regulators.

      The regulatory system itself, extant legislation and personnel were inadequate in specific rules, number and equipment, respectively.
      For instance, the superintendent of insurance was almost literally one person, a small office and a telephone.

      USEFULNESS OF CONGLOMERATES
      Our indigenous conglomerates destroyed the firewall that previously existed. Initially, this was a good thing, handled with prudence.
      Several entities used intra-group operations to theirs and Jamaica's advantage.

      Chen-Young highlights some of these positive developments - purchase and building of hotels as government divested.

      They also allowed, importantly, expanded stock-market participation and capital-market development, generally.

      Never disputing these facts, I have rather, highlighted and commended them.

      My point has been that in periods of rising prices, particularly real estate, euphoria sets in.

      Crowne Plaza hotel, Island Life's blue head-office building, Mutual Life's second tower, all became albatrosses around the necks of their respective groups - the equivalent of capital haemorrhage.
      What could Government policy have to do with these decisions?

      BETTING AGAINST DEATH
      Life-insurance companies bet their clients they will not die in a particular time period.

      As dealer and banker at the table, they usually win. The game is fixed in their favour by the statistics they analyse and the medical tests they do.
      But, apart from this, they must use clients' premium payments to generate investment income to cover necessary expenses settle claims.

      For this they hold an asset portfolio of cash, securities, real estate and so on. Prudence dictates a particular kind of mix in these holdings.

      Here's a crude numerical example. A company collects from 10,000 clients premiums of $4,000 each - a total of $40,000,000 per month

      Let us say each client's life is insured for $1 million, totalling $10 billion - a good deal since they are unlikely to die all at once.
      Indeed, it is likely that only a few of them will die in less than 40 years. So, the company has those premium funds to use.
      If the company does nothing but buy government paper at 23 per cent interest, in 15 years, one year's invested premium income grows to $10 billion. In 40 years, it grows to $1,540 billion.

      This is crude - premium payment is continuous, not just one year - but readers can get my drift. This is good business.

      But the company must pay its expenses - rental, electricity, salaries, computers and software licenses, etc. It is not cheap.
      So, to do even better, companies spread risk and invest in other types of assets that return more than government paper.

      In a time of rising real-estate prices, $480 million, the annual premium of our example can be doubled in much quicker time through real-estate development and speculation as opposed to investment in government paper.

      Crowne Plaza began as investment in real-estate development - luxury apartments and penthouses billed as Jamaica's most prestigious address.
      Perhaps government policy had an influence in its being converted to a hotel to benefit from tourism incentives. But that was an afterthought.
      Conversion proved costly as anyone in the building trade would know. As a business proposition, a hotel in that location made no sense.

      It could not be a leisure/pleasure/sea/sand/fun resort and Kingston traffic made a business hotel impossible. It was bound to fail.

      Island Life converted interest-earning government paper into its commercial building and head office at a time of literally zero economic growth and astonishingly, without tenant contracts.

      In what could only be described as a moment of serendipity, I had discussions with Oliver Jones, then CEO of Island Life, in which I advised against this. Jones' son, attending a Canadian university had difficulty with economics. They came after hours, to the Department of Economics at UWI Mona, for an appointment with a lecturer who did not show.

      Being head of department at the time, I was upset and embarrassed. I offered to assist if I could.

      Jones, in appreciation I thought, invited me for a breakfast meeting at the Terra Nova. At that session, I suggested if only he should be patient he might end up the true mogul of Jamaican insurance. It was already, however, when we spoke, too late.

      PRUDENT INVESTMENT
      When investing public funds, public institutions in the United States use the 'Prudent Person' rule: "Investments shall be made with judgement and care, under circumstances then prevailing which persons of prudence, discretion and intelligence exercise in the management of their own affairs, not for speculation, but for investment, considering the probable safety of their capital as well as the probable income to be derived from the investment."

      The former rule holds for employees.
      For a contracting investment company, the standard intensifies to the 'Prudent Expert' - even tougher. Readers can judge for themselves whether the indigenous financial sector institutions' investment strategies met the criteria above.

      IMF MANDATE
      Referring to my comment that "the IMF publicly mandated that NCB was to be sold by a certain date", Chen-Young said: "It is astonishing that he could have used that rationale to draw his conclusions about the sale of financial entities since Jamaica has no formal loan agreement with the IMF."

      This was never claimed as rationale for sale of financial entities. It was mentioned as a negative influence on sale price.

      Neophyte investors know if they want basic facts on Jamaica economy and society, the first ports are websites of the Central Intelligence Agency, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, followed by the Planning Institute of Jamaica, Statin and the Ministry of Finance, perhaps in that very order.

      If the IMF publishes in one of its quarterly, surveillance or other reports that Jamaica is undertaking to sell its largest domestic commercial bank in the next quarter and also indicates its 'support for such action', those who know, understand the code. It would be a dim-witted negotiator indeed who fails to grasp that critical fact.

      The seller is time-constrained and the offer price must fall.

      There are several further points of contention with Chen-Young's view of the meltdown being primarily caused by government policy - government's supervisory and regulatory regime had serious flaws which I have discussed elsewhere - its aftermath and ultimate solution.

      Space does not permit me to continue.

      I hope I have been able to demystify some seemingly esoteric stuff and as well, shared enough to dispel the notion of bias underlying my comments as implied in his response.

      Finally, I should indicate that I know Dr. Chen-Young personally, having not seen him in a decade, I do hope I remain a cordial acquaintance if not 'a close ally' after all this.
      wilbe65@yahoo.com

      "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

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