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PUBLIC AFFAIRS - A close shave
published: Sunday | August 26, 2007
Don Robotham, Contributor
Robotham
Hurricane Dean veered away from us at the last minute. Even more fortunately, another political hurricane also changed course at the eleventh hour. The Governor-General has at last been able to announce that the general election will shortly take place on September 3.
After several painful lessons, the Jamaican people are learning to cope with natural disasters. Our problem is with the man and woman-made ones. It is the political storms we have to worry about. Right now, because of the principled stand of some members of the PNP Cabinet and the stern warnings of the independent members of the Electoral Commission, a constitutional crisis has been narrowly averted.
The mere fact of the declaration of a state of emergency was not the problem. The problem was the back-door manner in which it was done, coupled with the election postponement fiasco. When, on the occasion of Hurri-cane Ivan, Mr. Patterson declared a state of emergency, this was done before the hurricane arrived - and in a context when there was no impending general election. Whether one agreed with him or not, it was clear that this was pre-emptive and non-partisan. In this current case, the declaration came after 'Dean' had passed, when there was little or no looting, on the eve of a general election.
As time passed, it emerged that the step was not taken on the advice of the police high command. It also became apparent that the Minister of National Security was not consulted, not to mention the Leader of the Opposition.
When the Governor-General's official proclamation was finally published, it was in stark contrast to the statement of the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister gave as her reason the danger of looting. But there is not a single word about looting in the Governor-General's proclamation.
Even more oddly, the Prime Minister did not present this extremely serious decision to the country in person. She left it to a lowly functionary to read. Even when it came to reading the promised announcement of a new date for the upcoming general election on Wednesday night, she did not appear in person and there was no word about the promised new date.
Instead, we were treated to a stealth presentation full of election handouts disguised as disaster relief - and arriving deep in the night to boot - audio only, plus a still photograph. When votes are to be hustled, there is no problem in appearing live and direct in broad daylight. When the fundamental rights of the Jamaican people are at stake, suddenly she is missing in action.
POSTPONEMENT OF DATE
As if the confusion over the state of emergency was not enough, it was followed by the scheming around the postponement of the date for the general election and the reopening of the school year.
When it was announced that the election was postponed to September 3 on the unanimous recommendation of the Electoral Commission, this seemed eminently reasonable. But then we were told this was a mistake and that this was a mere recommendation which had first to be approved by Cabinet.
Word soon spread of heated Cabinet meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday at which tongues were drawn! At both of these meetings, the Prime Minister was overruled and the September 3 date was reaffirmed. Strangely, despite this majority Cabinet decision, no new date was announced. One report said that the September 3 date had been sent to King's House. King's House reported no record of ever having received any such recommendation.
Another Cabinet meeting was convened as late as Friday, in a last-ditch attempt to reverse the previous decision. Faced with the likelihood of resignations from the Electoral Commission, opposition to the September 3 date faded. The recommendation of the Electoral Commission prevailed.
RIGHT TO VOTE
In the first days after 'Dean', many were prepared to give the Government the benefit of the doubt. I certainly had no objection to a state of emergency. But this initial sympathy quickly evaporated. Something more dangerous was afoot.
The real purpose behind the state of emergency was to put the JLP on the backfoot. That was also what was behind the frantic desire to postpone the general election beyond 30 days - into the special period, for the first time in our modern political history. Many months ago, I warned friends that there were political activists at large in Jamaica who wanted to push the election date down beyond October into the special period. I was dismissed as hysterical. Well, who is hysterical now?
Many have been focusing on the rights or wrongs of a state of emergency. But bigger fish were being fried here. For the real issue before us was no longer the state of emergency. The most important right won by the Jamaican people since emancipation - the right to vote - was now in danger of being taken away.
It is no secret that all recent polls indicated that the JLP had the political initiative and was gaining rapidly, if not passing the PNP. The last Bill Johnson Poll - not known for favouring the JLP - spoke of a "JLP surge". It pointed out that the JLP had gained four points, while the PNP was stagnant - a dead heat. Most important, Bill Johnson's report contained this innocuous but fateful conclusion: "Based on survey theory, it is likely that the JLP's current momentum willcontinue through to election day on August 27." (Daily Gleaner Thursday, August 16). The recent poll on the effect of the debates confirmed these findings conclusively.
This and other poll results created despair and panic in the PNP camp, already demoralised by their lacklustre campaign. Then came 'Dean'. Suddenly it appeared that a heaven-sent opportunity had arrived. If one could somehow use 'Dean' to put off the election, time could be bought.
In that breathing spell, 90,000 household could be promised "a one-off allowance of $2,000." Further, 80,000 pensioners could also be promised a "special allowance" of $5,000, which politicians could walk the length and breadth of Jamaica handing out to a grateful populace. In return for this unprecedented act of 'balancing people's lives', the pensioners and householders would fork over their vote, no questions asked. Most telling of all, the National Housing Trust (NHT) funds could be mobilised to provide a three-month moratorium on mortgage payments, "covering September 1 to November 30". Pay closest attention to this one - for it gives the game away.
It is one thing to promise handouts, but it is another matte to actually deliver them into outstretched hands. Special agencies and handouts take time to organise and implement. Jamaican government bureaucracies are notoriously slow to move. Indeed, the NHT handout envisaged "a three-month period." In other words, the thinking here was not to postpone the election for a few days or even weeks. The vision was one of months. After all, time was needed for the handouts to reach the intended hands, to be actually pocketed and, hopefully, to turn the election around. From the point of view of the actors in this drama, a three-month delay was essential.
POLITICAL DESPERATION
This whole effort, born of political desperation, has now ignominiously collapsed, leaving the PNP utterly fragmented and in disarray. Many are like walking dead, wondering what they did when they chose the present Prime Minister to be their party leader. But don't fool yourself - the schemers could have succeeded.
If we still have the right to vote in Jamaica, we have a number of people to thank. First, the courageous members of the Electoral Commission who did not waver in the face of extreme political pressure. Second, the principled members of the PNP Cabinet who stood firm in the best Norman Manley tradition in the face of all the vile appeals to political tribalism.
It will probably cost them the election. But, belatedly, they have rescued what remained of the tattered reputation of their party. Finally, we owe a profound debt to all those in the media - especially Mr. Irascibility himself, Wilmot Perkins, who kept the issue alive. It was a close shave. Let this be a lesson to us all.
Professor Don Robotham is an anthropologist and former a dean of the School for Graduate Studies and Research at the University of the West Indies, Mona.
published: Sunday | August 26, 2007
Don Robotham, Contributor
Robotham
Hurricane Dean veered away from us at the last minute. Even more fortunately, another political hurricane also changed course at the eleventh hour. The Governor-General has at last been able to announce that the general election will shortly take place on September 3.
After several painful lessons, the Jamaican people are learning to cope with natural disasters. Our problem is with the man and woman-made ones. It is the political storms we have to worry about. Right now, because of the principled stand of some members of the PNP Cabinet and the stern warnings of the independent members of the Electoral Commission, a constitutional crisis has been narrowly averted.
The mere fact of the declaration of a state of emergency was not the problem. The problem was the back-door manner in which it was done, coupled with the election postponement fiasco. When, on the occasion of Hurri-cane Ivan, Mr. Patterson declared a state of emergency, this was done before the hurricane arrived - and in a context when there was no impending general election. Whether one agreed with him or not, it was clear that this was pre-emptive and non-partisan. In this current case, the declaration came after 'Dean' had passed, when there was little or no looting, on the eve of a general election.
As time passed, it emerged that the step was not taken on the advice of the police high command. It also became apparent that the Minister of National Security was not consulted, not to mention the Leader of the Opposition.
When the Governor-General's official proclamation was finally published, it was in stark contrast to the statement of the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister gave as her reason the danger of looting. But there is not a single word about looting in the Governor-General's proclamation.
Even more oddly, the Prime Minister did not present this extremely serious decision to the country in person. She left it to a lowly functionary to read. Even when it came to reading the promised announcement of a new date for the upcoming general election on Wednesday night, she did not appear in person and there was no word about the promised new date.
Instead, we were treated to a stealth presentation full of election handouts disguised as disaster relief - and arriving deep in the night to boot - audio only, plus a still photograph. When votes are to be hustled, there is no problem in appearing live and direct in broad daylight. When the fundamental rights of the Jamaican people are at stake, suddenly she is missing in action.
POSTPONEMENT OF DATE
As if the confusion over the state of emergency was not enough, it was followed by the scheming around the postponement of the date for the general election and the reopening of the school year.
When it was announced that the election was postponed to September 3 on the unanimous recommendation of the Electoral Commission, this seemed eminently reasonable. But then we were told this was a mistake and that this was a mere recommendation which had first to be approved by Cabinet.
Word soon spread of heated Cabinet meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday at which tongues were drawn! At both of these meetings, the Prime Minister was overruled and the September 3 date was reaffirmed. Strangely, despite this majority Cabinet decision, no new date was announced. One report said that the September 3 date had been sent to King's House. King's House reported no record of ever having received any such recommendation.
Another Cabinet meeting was convened as late as Friday, in a last-ditch attempt to reverse the previous decision. Faced with the likelihood of resignations from the Electoral Commission, opposition to the September 3 date faded. The recommendation of the Electoral Commission prevailed.
RIGHT TO VOTE
In the first days after 'Dean', many were prepared to give the Government the benefit of the doubt. I certainly had no objection to a state of emergency. But this initial sympathy quickly evaporated. Something more dangerous was afoot.
The real purpose behind the state of emergency was to put the JLP on the backfoot. That was also what was behind the frantic desire to postpone the general election beyond 30 days - into the special period, for the first time in our modern political history. Many months ago, I warned friends that there were political activists at large in Jamaica who wanted to push the election date down beyond October into the special period. I was dismissed as hysterical. Well, who is hysterical now?
Many have been focusing on the rights or wrongs of a state of emergency. But bigger fish were being fried here. For the real issue before us was no longer the state of emergency. The most important right won by the Jamaican people since emancipation - the right to vote - was now in danger of being taken away.
It is no secret that all recent polls indicated that the JLP had the political initiative and was gaining rapidly, if not passing the PNP. The last Bill Johnson Poll - not known for favouring the JLP - spoke of a "JLP surge". It pointed out that the JLP had gained four points, while the PNP was stagnant - a dead heat. Most important, Bill Johnson's report contained this innocuous but fateful conclusion: "Based on survey theory, it is likely that the JLP's current momentum willcontinue through to election day on August 27." (Daily Gleaner Thursday, August 16). The recent poll on the effect of the debates confirmed these findings conclusively.
This and other poll results created despair and panic in the PNP camp, already demoralised by their lacklustre campaign. Then came 'Dean'. Suddenly it appeared that a heaven-sent opportunity had arrived. If one could somehow use 'Dean' to put off the election, time could be bought.
In that breathing spell, 90,000 household could be promised "a one-off allowance of $2,000." Further, 80,000 pensioners could also be promised a "special allowance" of $5,000, which politicians could walk the length and breadth of Jamaica handing out to a grateful populace. In return for this unprecedented act of 'balancing people's lives', the pensioners and householders would fork over their vote, no questions asked. Most telling of all, the National Housing Trust (NHT) funds could be mobilised to provide a three-month moratorium on mortgage payments, "covering September 1 to November 30". Pay closest attention to this one - for it gives the game away.
It is one thing to promise handouts, but it is another matte to actually deliver them into outstretched hands. Special agencies and handouts take time to organise and implement. Jamaican government bureaucracies are notoriously slow to move. Indeed, the NHT handout envisaged "a three-month period." In other words, the thinking here was not to postpone the election for a few days or even weeks. The vision was one of months. After all, time was needed for the handouts to reach the intended hands, to be actually pocketed and, hopefully, to turn the election around. From the point of view of the actors in this drama, a three-month delay was essential.
POLITICAL DESPERATION
This whole effort, born of political desperation, has now ignominiously collapsed, leaving the PNP utterly fragmented and in disarray. Many are like walking dead, wondering what they did when they chose the present Prime Minister to be their party leader. But don't fool yourself - the schemers could have succeeded.
If we still have the right to vote in Jamaica, we have a number of people to thank. First, the courageous members of the Electoral Commission who did not waver in the face of extreme political pressure. Second, the principled members of the PNP Cabinet who stood firm in the best Norman Manley tradition in the face of all the vile appeals to political tribalism.
It will probably cost them the election. But, belatedly, they have rescued what remained of the tattered reputation of their party. Finally, we owe a profound debt to all those in the media - especially Mr. Irascibility himself, Wilmot Perkins, who kept the issue alive. It was a close shave. Let this be a lesson to us all.
Professor Don Robotham is an anthropologist and former a dean of the School for Graduate Studies and Research at the University of the West Indies, Mona.
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