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While all recent public opinion polls have projected a close result in the upcoming General Elections, statistician and political analyst, Anthony Myers, says the ruling People’s National Party will win 34 seats.
Myers, an acknowledged supporter of the ruling party, has identified 26 safe seats for the PNP and 19 for the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party, which some political analysts believe will win the polls.
According to Myers, six of 10 marginal seats are in favour of the PNP, against four for the JLP. He also predicted that the PNP could win two of five of what he described as “borderline seats” by less than 200 votes.
Myers, who has done extensive work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica, argued that for the JLP to win the September 3 General Elections, that party would have to win at least 12 of 15 marginal to borderline seats.
Myers identified safe seats for the PNP as Hanover eastern, the three Westmoreland constituencies, two of four in St. Elizabeth, two of three in Manchester, two in Clarendon and three in St. Catherine; seven of 15 seats in Kingston and St. Andrew, one in St. Thomas, and five across the parishes of Portland, St. Mary, St Ann, Trelawny and St. James.
Safe seats for the JLP, according to Myers, are St. Elizabeth south west and north east; two in Clarendon, three in St. Catherine, six in the Corporate Area, one in St. Thomas and five across St. Ann, Trelawny and St. James.
Myers claimed that his latest predictions were based on his track record of calling correct past elections, starting in 1972.
The last two public opinion polls done by pollsters Bill Johnson for the Gleaner and Don Anderson for the Jamaica Observer and CVM TV, showed the JLP closing in on a six-point lead by the PNP.
While PNP leader, Portia Simpson Miller, continues to lead her rival, Bruce Golding, as the most popular leader, the JLP, according to the polls, was closing the gap in a number of areas, including the party most favoured by uncommitted voters.
Myers, an acknowledged supporter of the ruling party, has identified 26 safe seats for the PNP and 19 for the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party, which some political analysts believe will win the polls.
According to Myers, six of 10 marginal seats are in favour of the PNP, against four for the JLP. He also predicted that the PNP could win two of five of what he described as “borderline seats” by less than 200 votes.
Myers, who has done extensive work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica, argued that for the JLP to win the September 3 General Elections, that party would have to win at least 12 of 15 marginal to borderline seats.
Myers identified safe seats for the PNP as Hanover eastern, the three Westmoreland constituencies, two of four in St. Elizabeth, two of three in Manchester, two in Clarendon and three in St. Catherine; seven of 15 seats in Kingston and St. Andrew, one in St. Thomas, and five across the parishes of Portland, St. Mary, St Ann, Trelawny and St. James.
Safe seats for the JLP, according to Myers, are St. Elizabeth south west and north east; two in Clarendon, three in St. Catherine, six in the Corporate Area, one in St. Thomas and five across St. Ann, Trelawny and St. James.
Myers claimed that his latest predictions were based on his track record of calling correct past elections, starting in 1972.
The last two public opinion polls done by pollsters Bill Johnson for the Gleaner and Don Anderson for the Jamaica Observer and CVM TV, showed the JLP closing in on a six-point lead by the PNP.
While PNP leader, Portia Simpson Miller, continues to lead her rival, Bruce Golding, as the most popular leader, the JLP, according to the polls, was closing the gap in a number of areas, including the party most favoured by uncommitted voters.
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