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Will Hurricane Dean affect voting decision?
Mark Wignall
Thursday, August 23, 2007
The first consideration of any Jamaican prime minister in planning and announcing an election is a hurricane. Indeed, it is almost taken as a given that because it is known that the height of the season is between the last half of August and September, those months automatically become crossed off whenever strategy is being mapped out in holding a general election.
All the prime minister had to do before she announced the date was visit the EOJ website and examine the various dates of past elections. Is there some reason why August is non-existent among the election dates? After that she should have availed herself of the information on Wikipedia even if she did not trust her own knowledge of life and hurricanes in this region. There she would have read: "In the North Atlantic a distinct hurricane season occurs from June 1 to November 30, sharply peaking from late August through September. The statistical peak of the hurricane season is September 10."
The prime minister would also have seen that no general election has ever been held in September. Readers will recall that when she announced the election date in early July, most election watchers were figuring on a date at the end of July. Readers will also recall that just prior to that time the prime minister was into her "guzzu", her numerology, her seeming fascination with self-styled pastor and prophet Phillip Phinn who had sold her the idea that she should gather as many "sevens" as she could because that number would take her home triumphantly come next elections.
In other words, the prime minister with whom we had been doing business from March 30, 2006, was doing an undefined "business" with a "reader man", an action we would normally expect from the dull and ignorant. And while we know that "sensible" people in high places have indulged in the occult, the very thought that a prime minister was fiddling with signs and numbers, and doing so openly, was extremely troubling to a wide cross section of intelligent people.
Apart from the fact that the August date would have meant that the real campaign would last for two whole months, in addition to the unofficial one which had been in the works before, there was the distinct impression that the people of this country wanted the elections to be over and done with. In plain language, the earlier the better.
Hurricane Dean approached us with evil intent, but at the last minute it dangerously edged its way along the south coast, in the process unleashing some terrible winds on the parishes closest to it. I must confess that I am not as concerned about the State of Emergency as others are. First, it is my belief that the prime minister will not know what to do about a State of Emergency. Second, she does not have excess political capital to indulge in any political shenanigans as Michael Manley did in 1976 when he locked up key members of the JLP before and during the December elections. So I am buying into the idea that, as she says, her motive is "the people", that is, protecting them.
With my August polls not only showing the JLP considerably ahead of the PNP but with the "don't-know" likely voter having more JLP tendencies than PNP, the PNP and the prime minister will be well advised not to annoy the people any more.
It is my belief that from here on, the odds are stacked against the PNP and especially the prime minister. It should be noted that the PNP is mounting a one-man - my mistake - a one-woman campaign. Where is a senior man like Peter Phillips in the PNP's election campaign? Where is Bobby Pickersgill, chairman of the PNP in the election campaign? Where is Omar Davies?
The PNP is pushing Portia, based on a decision taken somewhere by some people. Indeed, if one recalls the looks of surprise on the faces of senior government members sitting on the PNP platform when the prime minister announced the election date, it would appear that those "some people" could turn out to be one or two, probably involving even Prophet Phinn.
Now that the hurricane has done enough damage to delay the elections, what will some in the electorate think about the person who had the power to call the elections for July or October? If Dean had hit us directly, this country would have been devastated and no elections could have been held this year. It must be remembered that an election was held five months after Gilbert. Frankly, I believe that the readiness five months after was due to the superior management skills of Eddie Seaga. Had there been another leader in place with fewer of those skills, the readiness for elections could have been one year later.
The fact is, Dean did not devastate us although some people have suffered property damage and dislocation. The additional fact that Dean "grazed" us and brought about a delay in the elections is what will move some in the electorate to see a negative between the delay and Portia.
They will ask on what basis she called an election for August knowing that the latter part of that month forms a part of the peak of the hurricane season. If, as we know, or at the very least suspect, that the prime minister called the election for August 27 because that particular "seven" in the date had more power than all others, is it not likely that some will question her allegiance to some "prophet" over the responsibilities she has as the first servant of the people of Jamaica?
I must confess some puzzlement with Winsome Callum, JPS' corporate communications manager, telling a radio programme three days ago that it would be weeks before full power could be restored, yet the election is being delayed by only one week. Seriously now, with the EOJ into its high-tech stage, where will it find power to deal with all those rural areas in the southern parishes which are not likely to have electricity in another two weeks?
Let us face one fact. The people of this country want the election to be over and done with. The JLP wants this election to be over and done with because the political mood favours that party. It is the PNP which would do well with the delay but at some stage in the life of a "finished" political administration, it is damned if you do, damned if you don't.
In calling the election date for August 27, the prime minister exposed it to the dangerous vagaries of a hurricane and delays. Surely, there must have been someone in the PNP who could have been trusted enough to give her sensible advice prior to announcing the election date. Would she have listened?
observemark@gmail.com
Mark Wignall
Thursday, August 23, 2007
The first consideration of any Jamaican prime minister in planning and announcing an election is a hurricane. Indeed, it is almost taken as a given that because it is known that the height of the season is between the last half of August and September, those months automatically become crossed off whenever strategy is being mapped out in holding a general election.
All the prime minister had to do before she announced the date was visit the EOJ website and examine the various dates of past elections. Is there some reason why August is non-existent among the election dates? After that she should have availed herself of the information on Wikipedia even if she did not trust her own knowledge of life and hurricanes in this region. There she would have read: "In the North Atlantic a distinct hurricane season occurs from June 1 to November 30, sharply peaking from late August through September. The statistical peak of the hurricane season is September 10."
The prime minister would also have seen that no general election has ever been held in September. Readers will recall that when she announced the election date in early July, most election watchers were figuring on a date at the end of July. Readers will also recall that just prior to that time the prime minister was into her "guzzu", her numerology, her seeming fascination with self-styled pastor and prophet Phillip Phinn who had sold her the idea that she should gather as many "sevens" as she could because that number would take her home triumphantly come next elections.
In other words, the prime minister with whom we had been doing business from March 30, 2006, was doing an undefined "business" with a "reader man", an action we would normally expect from the dull and ignorant. And while we know that "sensible" people in high places have indulged in the occult, the very thought that a prime minister was fiddling with signs and numbers, and doing so openly, was extremely troubling to a wide cross section of intelligent people.
Apart from the fact that the August date would have meant that the real campaign would last for two whole months, in addition to the unofficial one which had been in the works before, there was the distinct impression that the people of this country wanted the elections to be over and done with. In plain language, the earlier the better.
Hurricane Dean approached us with evil intent, but at the last minute it dangerously edged its way along the south coast, in the process unleashing some terrible winds on the parishes closest to it. I must confess that I am not as concerned about the State of Emergency as others are. First, it is my belief that the prime minister will not know what to do about a State of Emergency. Second, she does not have excess political capital to indulge in any political shenanigans as Michael Manley did in 1976 when he locked up key members of the JLP before and during the December elections. So I am buying into the idea that, as she says, her motive is "the people", that is, protecting them.
With my August polls not only showing the JLP considerably ahead of the PNP but with the "don't-know" likely voter having more JLP tendencies than PNP, the PNP and the prime minister will be well advised not to annoy the people any more.
It is my belief that from here on, the odds are stacked against the PNP and especially the prime minister. It should be noted that the PNP is mounting a one-man - my mistake - a one-woman campaign. Where is a senior man like Peter Phillips in the PNP's election campaign? Where is Bobby Pickersgill, chairman of the PNP in the election campaign? Where is Omar Davies?
The PNP is pushing Portia, based on a decision taken somewhere by some people. Indeed, if one recalls the looks of surprise on the faces of senior government members sitting on the PNP platform when the prime minister announced the election date, it would appear that those "some people" could turn out to be one or two, probably involving even Prophet Phinn.
Now that the hurricane has done enough damage to delay the elections, what will some in the electorate think about the person who had the power to call the elections for July or October? If Dean had hit us directly, this country would have been devastated and no elections could have been held this year. It must be remembered that an election was held five months after Gilbert. Frankly, I believe that the readiness five months after was due to the superior management skills of Eddie Seaga. Had there been another leader in place with fewer of those skills, the readiness for elections could have been one year later.
The fact is, Dean did not devastate us although some people have suffered property damage and dislocation. The additional fact that Dean "grazed" us and brought about a delay in the elections is what will move some in the electorate to see a negative between the delay and Portia.
They will ask on what basis she called an election for August knowing that the latter part of that month forms a part of the peak of the hurricane season. If, as we know, or at the very least suspect, that the prime minister called the election for August 27 because that particular "seven" in the date had more power than all others, is it not likely that some will question her allegiance to some "prophet" over the responsibilities she has as the first servant of the people of Jamaica?
I must confess some puzzlement with Winsome Callum, JPS' corporate communications manager, telling a radio programme three days ago that it would be weeks before full power could be restored, yet the election is being delayed by only one week. Seriously now, with the EOJ into its high-tech stage, where will it find power to deal with all those rural areas in the southern parishes which are not likely to have electricity in another two weeks?
Let us face one fact. The people of this country want the election to be over and done with. The JLP wants this election to be over and done with because the political mood favours that party. It is the PNP which would do well with the delay but at some stage in the life of a "finished" political administration, it is damned if you do, damned if you don't.
In calling the election date for August 27, the prime minister exposed it to the dangerous vagaries of a hurricane and delays. Surely, there must have been someone in the PNP who could have been trusted enough to give her sensible advice prior to announcing the election date. Would she have listened?
observemark@gmail.com
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