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Jamaica now better able to cope with hurricane disaster
Dennis Morrison
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Last Saturday most weather forecasters were projecting that Jamaica would have suffered a devastating direct hit from Hurricane Dean, which at that time was fast approaching Category 5 status.
Dennis Morrison
In the end, we were spared a direct hit though the southern part of our island, particularly St Thomas, is reported to have suffered severe damage. This southern zone, as well as Portland, has now gone through what must be the worst spate of hurricane and flood-related devastation in the last 40 years.
As a matter of fact, in the past six years we have been spared in only two years, 2003 and 2006, from this kind of aggressive weather. Farmers in the breadbasket parishes on the south have borne the brunt of the losses. Our secondary road infrastructure and vulnerable housing settlements have hardly had time to recover before having to cope with new threats.
The latest experience further reinforces the urgent need to take steps to mitigate threats to our coastal areas, starting with those on the south. This is in line with what is being advocated by experts studying the effects of global warming.
While the agricultural sector would have suffered serious losses and the extent of infrastructure damage is still being assessed, we already know that the tourism sector, Jamaica's economic driver, was spared significant damage. This is especially so on the north coast, from Negril to Ocho Rios. But tourism interests on the south coast have been unfortunate again. For example, Jakes, that special resort in the Treasure Beach area, has taken another bad hit after recovering from the hard blows dealt by Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane Dean has disrupted the recent improved performance of the sector after the negative effects of the US passport requirement introduced last January had curtailed stop-over visitor arrivals from that country in the January to June period. Preliminary data show that stop-over visitor arrivals had increased by 2.7 per cent in July, which was of some significance, bearing in mind that July 2006 was a record month, exceeding the corresponding month of 2005 by 22.5 per cent. Similarly, in the first two weeks of August stop-over arrivals were 4.1 per cent ahead of 2006, which had also achieved a record level.
Damage at St Mary Banana Estates Limited as Hurricane Dean lashed the island on Sunday.
With the restoration of electricity and water in the resort centres along the northern coastline from Ocho Rios to Negril, those centres should return quickly to near normal operation for the remainder of August and the early days of September, barring any other hurricanes. Indications are that there are minimal cancellations, as tour operators in the USA, Canada and the United Kingdom are reporting that visitors are keeping their bookings.
There will, however, be disruption to the economy because of Hurricane Dean, as production slowed in the days leading up to the hurricane and normality is not expected to return immediately. We know, for example, that the Jamalco port at Rocky Point has been severely damaged and hence imports of raw materials and shipments of alumina will be affected. Unlike Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, the economic disruptions can be met by the strong foreign reserves position of the Bank of Jamaica.
With over US$2 billion in foreign reserves, Jamaica is in a strong position to maintain the smooth flow of food, raw materials and building supplies. Our credit standing also allows for business with the outside world to be transacted normally, and we are not dependent on handouts at a time when our earnings would be negatively affected by the hurricane.
Food supplies, especially vegetables, which have suffered damage, can be supplemented by imports, thus controlling the inflationary effects that usually follow such events. These are the benefits of having accumulated substantial foreign reserves, a position which has been harshly criticised by some analysts and political spokespersons.
What is clear from a quick look at the landscape after the passing of Hurricane Dean is how our improved infrastructure, including roads, electricity and telecommunications, has made us better able to cope with the disaster. So too, has the organisational framework that has been developed and is now manifested in the work of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM).
Most evident is the difference in the scale of damage to our housing stock, even when account is taken of the less direct hit from Dean, compared with Hurricane Gilbert. Much more needs to be done to improve the quality of our housing stock but there can be no doubt that things have improved in this area by leaps and bounds in the past 19 years.
Dennis Morrison
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Last Saturday most weather forecasters were projecting that Jamaica would have suffered a devastating direct hit from Hurricane Dean, which at that time was fast approaching Category 5 status.
Dennis MorrisonIn the end, we were spared a direct hit though the southern part of our island, particularly St Thomas, is reported to have suffered severe damage. This southern zone, as well as Portland, has now gone through what must be the worst spate of hurricane and flood-related devastation in the last 40 years.
As a matter of fact, in the past six years we have been spared in only two years, 2003 and 2006, from this kind of aggressive weather. Farmers in the breadbasket parishes on the south have borne the brunt of the losses. Our secondary road infrastructure and vulnerable housing settlements have hardly had time to recover before having to cope with new threats.
The latest experience further reinforces the urgent need to take steps to mitigate threats to our coastal areas, starting with those on the south. This is in line with what is being advocated by experts studying the effects of global warming.
While the agricultural sector would have suffered serious losses and the extent of infrastructure damage is still being assessed, we already know that the tourism sector, Jamaica's economic driver, was spared significant damage. This is especially so on the north coast, from Negril to Ocho Rios. But tourism interests on the south coast have been unfortunate again. For example, Jakes, that special resort in the Treasure Beach area, has taken another bad hit after recovering from the hard blows dealt by Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane Dean has disrupted the recent improved performance of the sector after the negative effects of the US passport requirement introduced last January had curtailed stop-over visitor arrivals from that country in the January to June period. Preliminary data show that stop-over visitor arrivals had increased by 2.7 per cent in July, which was of some significance, bearing in mind that July 2006 was a record month, exceeding the corresponding month of 2005 by 22.5 per cent. Similarly, in the first two weeks of August stop-over arrivals were 4.1 per cent ahead of 2006, which had also achieved a record level.
Damage at St Mary Banana Estates Limited as Hurricane Dean lashed the island on Sunday. With the restoration of electricity and water in the resort centres along the northern coastline from Ocho Rios to Negril, those centres should return quickly to near normal operation for the remainder of August and the early days of September, barring any other hurricanes. Indications are that there are minimal cancellations, as tour operators in the USA, Canada and the United Kingdom are reporting that visitors are keeping their bookings.
There will, however, be disruption to the economy because of Hurricane Dean, as production slowed in the days leading up to the hurricane and normality is not expected to return immediately. We know, for example, that the Jamalco port at Rocky Point has been severely damaged and hence imports of raw materials and shipments of alumina will be affected. Unlike Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, the economic disruptions can be met by the strong foreign reserves position of the Bank of Jamaica.
With over US$2 billion in foreign reserves, Jamaica is in a strong position to maintain the smooth flow of food, raw materials and building supplies. Our credit standing also allows for business with the outside world to be transacted normally, and we are not dependent on handouts at a time when our earnings would be negatively affected by the hurricane.
Food supplies, especially vegetables, which have suffered damage, can be supplemented by imports, thus controlling the inflationary effects that usually follow such events. These are the benefits of having accumulated substantial foreign reserves, a position which has been harshly criticised by some analysts and political spokespersons.
What is clear from a quick look at the landscape after the passing of Hurricane Dean is how our improved infrastructure, including roads, electricity and telecommunications, has made us better able to cope with the disaster. So too, has the organisational framework that has been developed and is now manifested in the work of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM).
Most evident is the difference in the scale of damage to our housing stock, even when account is taken of the less direct hit from Dean, compared with Hurricane Gilbert. Much more needs to be done to improve the quality of our housing stock but there can be no doubt that things have improved in this area by leaps and bounds in the past 19 years.