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Portia vs Bruce vs Peter - Who would come out the winner? published: Sunday | January 29, 2006 Portia Simpson Miller greets Bruce Golding. - Winston Sill/Freelance Photo A NUMBER of Jamaicans are confident a Portia Simpson Miller or Peter Phillips-led People's National Party (PNP) will defeat a Bruce Golding-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the next general election, a new survey has found.The survey was conducted by Johnson Survey Research Limited on December 17 and 18, last year, among a total population of 1,344 Jamaicans over age 18 in 84 communities across the island. Seventy-nine per cent of the population was enumerated to vote in the next election and another 54 per cent voted in the last election.Half of those who voted in the last general election in 2002, said they voted for the PNP, while 44 per cent voted JLP. One per cent of the population voted for other parties and the remaining six per cent refused to say the party they voted for.Respondents were asked how they would vote if each of the four possible candidates was the leader of the PNP at the time of the next general election and Bruce Golding head of the JLP.Among the total population, 16 per cent of people believed a Peter Phillips-led PNP would probably defeat the JLP, while nine per cent believed a Bruce Golding-led JLP would win. However, the decision was very close among people who felt the PNP would definitely win if Peter Phillips led the party. Only 22 per cent of the total population felt a Peter Phillips team would definitely defeat the JLP compared to a close 21 per cent of respondents who felt the JLP would definitely win.The gap widened when Portia Simpson Miller was thrown into the question. Twelve per cent of people believed a Simpson Miller-led team would probably defeat the JLP if she became party president, while only eight per cent believed the JLP would probably win. A further 34 per cent felt she would definitely defeat the JLP if she became party president compared to a much lower 20 per cent who believed the JLP would definitely win.The prospects were not so bright for an Omar Davies or Karl Blythe-led PNP. Only 24 per cent of people believed an Omar-led team would defeat the JLP in the next elections compared to 33 per cent of respondents who believed the JLP would be victorious. The scale tipped 27 to 32 per cent in favour of the JLP if Karl Blythe was elected president of the PNP.PAYING THE PRICE OF SUCCESSPolitical analysts Professor Brian Meeks of the University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, and Lambert Brown of the University and Allied Workers' Union (UAWU), say Portia Simpson Miller and Peter Phillips may be leading their fellow contenders because of their success records as parliamentarians and ministers of government.Phillips, Professor Meeks explains, was a fairly successful minister in his previous portfolios as Transport and Works Minister and Health Minister, and a relatively successful middle and senior member of Cabinet and these successes may be working in his favour. But his tenure as National Security Minister has been proving a challenge to his track record."He has had a very difficult portfolio in security and it remains open whether he has failed or hasn't been successful and he is paying the price of success," Professor Meeks says.While Mrs. Simpson Miller's track record is far more difficult to pinpoint, he notes, her support might stem from the fact that she represents a different kind of leadership for the party and the nation. Moreover, in the polls she is represented as the winning candidate.MASS APPEAL"If you think about it then, Phillips is portrayed as a can-do person who is equipped for the job of leadership and Portia is somebody who is compassionate, deriving out of her image of the populace and as a woman," he says.Lambert Brown agrees.He says Mrs. Simpson Miller has served the party for a number of years and a significant part of the PNP believe it is time for her to lead the party. He says her mass appeal gives her the edge above the other contenders."You will discover that the most ardent of JLP supporters are supporting Portia Simpson Miller because she has been able to pull sections of JLP support to her in a way that none of the other contenders will be able to do," he points out.Peter Phillips on the other hand, has the party machinery behind him, but he lacks mass appeal, Brown explains."The grass roots feel that of the two, the best person to lead the PNP into continued victory in electoral politics is Portia Simpson Miller and they don't feel Peter can do it," he says.What may be working against the other candidates, Brown purports, is the simple fact that neither Blythe nor Davies has very successful track records or long years of service to the party.Blythe, he explains, is no longer a member of Cabinet and the Operation Pride issue that led to his resignation in 2002 still hovers over him."The PNP delegates are not idiots, they are not fool hearted and they recognise that any leader that comes out must be able to lead them to a fifth term of victory. Now Karl Blythe would not be able to pull that off nationally, so they would be wasting their votes on Blythe and that is why I think Blythe is not getting more traction," he says.Mixed perceptions about Omar Davies' work as Finance Minister, his perceived arrogance, and his capacity in the party over the years, may be what has prevented him from taking front position in the leadership race, Brown says."He has not been an officer of the party executive; he's never been a vice-president; he has never contested a vice-president position; and, therefore, he is seen in a sense as one who has not paid his dues."However, while the analysts point out why Simpson Miller and Phillips lead the PNP leadership race, the question arises as to which of the two contenders and Bruce Golding will be the best leader to take Jamaica forward.STRONGEST LEADER Not many persons chose to respond to The Sunday Gleaner's question, but throughout 2005, some political analysts perceived Golding as the strongest leader of the pack, but not the most liked. He has also been criticised for his 'bangarang' approach to some issues, including his initiation of an island-wide protest against Government policies and high prices. The protest received mixed reviews.Brown reasons that a Golding-led JLP may stand a chance to taste victory because he sits outside of government. He says this may make it easier for him to criticise and devise solutions. The other two candidates, while they are strong leaders, may have the ills of a 16-year term of PNP governance working against them.Peter Phillips has been cited as the strongest leader in the PNP leadership race, by the Gleaner-commissioned Don Ander-son polls, but his disconnectedness with the grass roots seems to be his greatest obstacle.While withholding comments on the candidates' policies and leadership qualities, Professor Meeks says victory for either party may depend on the leaders' ability to hold their party together."Bruce Golding is working to consolidate his strength and unity within the JLP. If indeed the PNP comes out of this internal party feeling strong and united, they may very well want to go for an early election," he says.More NewsPrint this PageLetters to the EditorMost Popular Stories
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