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they just lucky?
This is a good read if you are interested in the "science" of polling. I put science in quotations because it now seems to me that while the data analysis is a pure science, the modelling of the electorate makeup is still more of an art than a science.
In 2012 Romney was convinced he was going to win because the models his people had didn't account for the high black/urban turnout. Obamas people saw it and the adjustments they made were totally on point. Fast forward to 2016 and the SAME Obama data scientists working for Clinton did not pick up the surge in the white blue collar voters that Trump was able to mobilize. Trumps people saw it and we now know that they were right.
It seems to me that when the demographics of the voting pool is volatile, the polls have to be treated with suspicion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...bcomANews=true
This is a good read if you are interested in the "science" of polling. I put science in quotations because it now seems to me that while the data analysis is a pure science, the modelling of the electorate makeup is still more of an art than a science.
In 2012 Romney was convinced he was going to win because the models his people had didn't account for the high black/urban turnout. Obamas people saw it and the adjustments they made were totally on point. Fast forward to 2016 and the SAME Obama data scientists working for Clinton did not pick up the surge in the white blue collar voters that Trump was able to mobilize. Trumps people saw it and we now know that they were right.
It seems to me that when the demographics of the voting pool is volatile, the polls have to be treated with suspicion.
Trump’s numbers were different, because his analysts, like Trump himself, were forecasting a fundamentally different electorate than other pollsters and almost all of the media: older, whiter, more rural, more populist. And much angrier at what they perceive to be an overclass of entitled elites. In the next three weeks, Trump channeled this anger on the stump, at times seeming almost unhinged.
His hyperbole and crassness drew broad condemnation from the media and political elite, who interpreted his anger as an acknowledgment that he was about to lose. But rather than alienate his gathering army, Trump’s antipathy fed their resolve.
His hyperbole and crassness drew broad condemnation from the media and political elite, who interpreted his anger as an acknowledgment that he was about to lose. But rather than alienate his gathering army, Trump’s antipathy fed their resolve.
You should stick to this side of the forum. Stay away from the football side. 
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