Tweet
Today’s example of polarization is the news about Huma Abedin’s email, which it seems she accessed on a laptop she shared with her now-estranged husband, Anthony Weiner’s. Clinton supporters think it is a minor event with weird timing, which has blown up in the press. Trump supporters think it’s a game changer that can save their candidate.
One thing is almost certain: it will not affect Clinton’s lead substantially. Basically, the press needs a new direction, even if conditions haven’t really changed. I could imagine secondary effects downticket, though. Based on polls, Senate control could go either way. Even a small change in turnout could affect the outcome. Same story in the House, although partisan gerrymandering there seems likely to keep that chamber in Republican hands.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/1...es/#more-18351
Nate :
The emails apparently came from electronic devices belonging to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, and his wife, Huma Abedin, an aide to Clinton, and surfaced as part of an investigation into lewd text messages that Weiner sent to underage women. It isn’t clear that the emails directly implicate Clinton, and the reporting I’ve followed so far suggests that in a legal sense, Comey’s decision to inform Congress may be something done out of an “abundance of caution.” But in a political sense, there’s certainly some downside for Clinton in the appearance of headlines containing the words “FBI,” “investigation” and “email” just 11 days before the election.
We’ll return to the FBI news in a moment, but first, a quick look at where our forecast stands — and I’ll remind you that it is based on polls and won’t reflect any effect from the FBI news until the polls do. We’ve reached the point in the campaign in which there are so many polls coming in — state polls, national polls, tracking polls, one-off polls — that it’s really nice to have a model to sort out all the data. A couple of days ago, the model was beginning to detect tenuous signs that the presidential race was tightening. Now, that seems a bit clearer. Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is now 5.7 percentage points in our polls-only model, down from 7.1 points on Oct. 17. And Trump’s chances of winning the election have recovered to 18 percent from a low of 12 percent. Trump’s chances in our polls-plus forecast are 21 percent, improved from a low of 15 percent.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...nthony-weiner/
One thing is almost certain: it will not affect Clinton’s lead substantially. Basically, the press needs a new direction, even if conditions haven’t really changed. I could imagine secondary effects downticket, though. Based on polls, Senate control could go either way. Even a small change in turnout could affect the outcome. Same story in the House, although partisan gerrymandering there seems likely to keep that chamber in Republican hands.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/1...es/#more-18351
Nate :
The emails apparently came from electronic devices belonging to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, and his wife, Huma Abedin, an aide to Clinton, and surfaced as part of an investigation into lewd text messages that Weiner sent to underage women. It isn’t clear that the emails directly implicate Clinton, and the reporting I’ve followed so far suggests that in a legal sense, Comey’s decision to inform Congress may be something done out of an “abundance of caution.” But in a political sense, there’s certainly some downside for Clinton in the appearance of headlines containing the words “FBI,” “investigation” and “email” just 11 days before the election.
We’ll return to the FBI news in a moment, but first, a quick look at where our forecast stands — and I’ll remind you that it is based on polls and won’t reflect any effect from the FBI news until the polls do. We’ve reached the point in the campaign in which there are so many polls coming in — state polls, national polls, tracking polls, one-off polls — that it’s really nice to have a model to sort out all the data. A couple of days ago, the model was beginning to detect tenuous signs that the presidential race was tightening. Now, that seems a bit clearer. Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is now 5.7 percentage points in our polls-only model, down from 7.1 points on Oct. 17. And Trump’s chances of winning the election have recovered to 18 percent from a low of 12 percent. Trump’s chances in our polls-plus forecast are 21 percent, improved from a low of 15 percent.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...nthony-weiner/
Comment