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Don’t worry about Trump’s “lead” yet: It’s too early to

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  • #1

    Don’t worry about Trump’s “lead” yet: It’s too early to

    Then, you bother to read three or four paragraphs more and realize the story is talking about one poll in one swing state. There is no context, so you might not stop to think that maybe Trump got this lead because the Republicans just finished their convention and the Democrats have yet to hold theirs, or that the pollster responsible is known to oversample conservative voters.

    And then it’s off to the medicine cabinet to see if you can find those beta blockers you got lazy about and stopped taking six months ago.

    http://www.salon.com/2016/07/29/dont...out_the_polls/
    THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!

    "Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.


    "It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.
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  • #2
    People often seem not to understand what polls are. They are not crystal balls that predict who will eventually win an election, they are simply indications of where things stand at a particular point in time. When things change on the ground the polls change. It doesn't mean they were wrong any more than a clock which showed a time of 6:00 AM at sunrise is inaccurate 12 hours later, It just means that the situation has changed! There is no serious politician today who does not use polls to help make decisions on where they should spend their time and advertising dollars.

    However there are some things that we can reasonably conclude from the polls over the last few months.

    One is that it is very unlikely that Trump is going to lose 45+ states as many of us thought he would if he became the Republican candidate. His Southern base is solid and they are going to vote for him no matter what.

    Another is that Clinton is not a popular candidate because she and her husband are seen as dishonest by so many people.

    I also am of the opinion that because Trump and Clinton are such polarizing and unpopular candidates, there could well be be a higher margin of error in the polls than normal. People may vote for Trump and not want to admit they are voting for him, and people who don't usually vote may be motivated into coming out to vote for OR against him. Still others, the NeverTrumpers and the BernieorBusters may decide both options are so awful they will just stay home.

    We will see. It is not a normal election cycle, that much is certain. If it was Trump would have been back in New York a long time ago.
    Last edited by Islandman; July 29, 2016, 04:54 PM.
    "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Islandman View Post
      Another is that Clinton is not a popular candidate because she and her husband are seen as dishonest by so many people.
      How is Clinton's integrity being questioned and Trump's isn't?

      That I can't understand.


      BLACK LIVES MATTER

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      • #4
        I think it's a case of different voters, different priorities.

        To a Trump supporter who basically wants someone to blow up the system, his integrity and most of the other normal attributes required of a leader don't matter.

        Kind of like people asking why do inner city residents burn down their own neighbourhood when they riot. Well, it's because they get to the point where they really don't give a damn anymore.
        "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

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        • #5
          The choice to support Trump isn't the first glimpse of the mental problems plaguing the society,racism was one of the earliest indicators.
          My only interest is if Bernie would have been a better candidate to battle Trump because he offered an alternative to the status quo...

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          • #6
            Media hype to promote ratings,listen to the commentators carefully,i have a new poll with Trump leading....,it says Trump fav ratings are higher than Clinton,they link,mesh ,elude to issues that pass as national polls,or they grab the outlier.e. g a poll on Clinton Trump on who best on national security,who best at the economy etc etc.

            You think these pollsters can gauge poor rural whites ,blacks and Latino who don't have access or time to the media,internet,phone calls or write in questionnaire as per their preferences?

            Trump was and will never be tied with Clinton much less ahead,THINK what can they sell John Public if they say this is going to be a blowout for CLINTON ?

            Mi tiyad fi tell unnuh fi check Wang. Babylon affi sell unnu ratings.

            The real story is will the Senate flip.....it look suh !
            THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!

            "Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.


            "It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.

            Comment

            • #7
              Everything is in play

              Infidelity does not consist in believing, or in disbelieving; it consists in professing to believe what he does not believe. Thomas Paine

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by Mosiah View Post
                How is Clinton's integrity being questioned and Trump's isn't?

                That I can't understand.
                Clinton integrity issues are related to politics.
                Trump integrity issues are related to business.
                The issue before us is a political issue.

                Clinton/Saunders supporters care about integrity issues.
                Trump supporters don't care if he is a robber baron.
                The same type of thinking that created a problem cannot be used to solve the problem.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by Time View Post
                  Clinton integrity issues are related to politics.
                  Trump integrity issues are related to business.
                  The issue before us is a political issue.

                  Clinton/Saunders supporters care about integrity issues.
                  Trump supporters don't care if he is a robber baron.
                  But Trump has never been in politics. You think once he gets into politics his "integrity related to business" issues won't be transferred to politics?

                  Get real!



                  BLACK LIVES MATTER

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                  • #10
                    I think what Time is saying is relevant to this election. Trump doesn't have a political record other than gloating about how he has bought off politicians on both sides as a businessman. His supporters apparently think this is a great thing.
                    "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

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                    • #11
                      Yes, but one must connect the dots to have some idea what he'd be like as a politician.

                      It would have been nice if, at the RNC, some current or former employees at Trump Tower, Mexicans preferably, had told us how great he was.


                      BLACK LIVES MATTER

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                      • #12
                        Connecting dots is asking a lot of a Trump voter. Let start with trying to get them to chew gum and walk in a straight line.
                        "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

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                        • #13
                          Problem with Bernie is he stole Democrats taking points but presented nary a point on how to accomplish same.

                          Pretty easy to label him as the great big fearful and frightening socialist who would tax and spend as reflexive ingrained DNA.

                          All talk and no substance.
                          Last edited by Karl; September 14, 2016, 08:57 AM.
                          "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mosiah View Post
                            How is Clinton's integrity being questioned and Trump's isn't?

                            That I can't understand.
                            More figment of the imagination of the talking and their use of misuse of stats.

                            If Hillary Clinton has this great trust deficit, how is it so many democrats...enough to destroy Bernie? Bernie has a trust deficit even greater than that being touted for Hillary?

                            The talking heads are even using Hillary pluses 'spun' in a negative way. Example: Hillary consistently leads in National polls...but the talking heads spin...Hillary dogged by this or that...this or that is a drapitg on her...

                            So the die-hards gobble up more than 90%...closer to 95% of those who vote - last presidential election may have been less than 60% of eligible voters -... So there is a %age that represents voting 'no shows'. Right? Where then would we find voters that would make a blow-out?

                            They do not exist! Bogus argument!

                            btw - On possible Electoral College at this moment more likely Hillary wins comfortably than Trump doing the same.
                            Nate Silver's current prediction gives Hillary 60+% chance of pulling it off...Trump? Approximately 30%.

                            Truth is both candidates are taking nothing for granted. Both going, 'All in'.
                            "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Ooooh by-the-way those stats on 'trust deficit?

                              What % of the sample would vote...not just Hillary but any politician, "Not trust-worthy"?

                              Just asking...
                              "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

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