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As I wrote yesterday, there are more undecideds in the Clinton-Trump race than in the Obama-Romney race four years ago. The difference is 5.5 percentage points: in early July 2012, approximately 90.7 ± 1.1% (average ± SEM) of voters reported a preference for Obama or Romney. In 2016, total Clinton+Trump support is currently 85.2 ± 2.0%.
In practice, undecided voters tend to break approximately equally. However, these “extra undecideds” may not be the same as the run-of-the-mill voters who cannot yet express a preference to a pollster. Instead, Donald Trump is underperforming in a pattern that suggests that many Republicans in red states are disaffected by his candidacy. [Read
http://election.princeton.edu/
In practice, undecided voters tend to break approximately equally. However, these “extra undecideds” may not be the same as the run-of-the-mill voters who cannot yet express a preference to a pollster. Instead, Donald Trump is underperforming in a pattern that suggests that many Republicans in red states are disaffected by his candidacy. [Read
http://election.princeton.edu/