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A CBS/NYT poll released yesterday indicated a 40-40 tie between Clinton and Trump. Cue media freakout. This illustrates the point that news organizations habitually report on outlier events, a bad move when it comes to data points when other data points are available.
Four other surveys with mostly overlapping dates show Clinton +1% (Morning Consult), YouGov/Economist (Clinton +3%), AP-GfK (Clinton +4%), and Clinton +12% (Raba Research). Five data points, with CBS at the extreme end. Oldtime PEC readers, all together now: take the median. Which is Clinton +3.0 ± 1.3% (± estimated one-sigma uncertainty). So the race may have narrowed from a 5% gap – maybe because of FBI director Comey’s public announcements? Anyway, it’s not a tie yet.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/0...over-outliers/
Four other surveys with mostly overlapping dates show Clinton +1% (Morning Consult), YouGov/Economist (Clinton +3%), AP-GfK (Clinton +4%), and Clinton +12% (Raba Research). Five data points, with CBS at the extreme end. Oldtime PEC readers, all together now: take the median. Which is Clinton +3.0 ± 1.3% (± estimated one-sigma uncertainty). So the race may have narrowed from a 5% gap – maybe because of FBI director Comey’s public announcements? Anyway, it’s not a tie yet.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/0...over-outliers/