Island : The polling ,memba mi tell yuh Blow out

[Sir X]

A suh me seeit,granted I could be wrong but I doubt it ,let me tell you why ,Trump is going into the general with no support from his party ,to the point of outright blatant sabotage-Repugs saying they will not vote for Trump ot sit out the election is nothing more than an endorsement of Hillary,anyway breds check this.

Another way to look at the data is to force a win for whichever candidate is leading in each state. This does not take into account all the possibilities. But it does give the mode – the single most likely combination of wins and losses. That mode gives a total of Clinton 364 EV, Trump 174 EV, very close to Obama’s win in 2008. This is totally consistent with the fact that Obama won the popular vote by 7% – the same as Clinton’s national poll margin today. The map would look like this.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/0...ah/#more-15608

[Islandman]

Could certainly turn out that way if the Republicans don't find a way to give the impression that most of them are behind Trump. Still Trump is such an unorthodox candidate and Clinton is such a shaky one that I am not convinced that it will be an easy ride right throughout the campaign.

Perhaps she needs to tell Bill to hold a back seat and do the fundraisers, and she hit the road with Obama. I really feel that he may be the silver bullet through Trumps heart because his temperament contrasts so well , not to mention Michelle compared against Trump trophy wife #3.

One thing is sure, it will be an interesting summer of politics.

[Sir X]

I don't think Bill should be held back,he is there and Trump will let John Public know this,ahh mean have you seen the news lately? It would be a mistake, let Bill go at him by choosing the high road and extrapolate on the real issues, Trump cards won't do well in the General esp with Obama and the democratic machine in full force,the way how I see it, Trump and repugs will launch a crippled campaign with the infighting, sitting out etc,where Twitter will be his war room...hehe, can't make this up, mi belly.

The Joke will be the media trying to sell it as close.

[Sir X]

On another politic note :Why I like the Bern

The parts about expanding Social Security and keeping our troops out of another costly ground war in the Middle East are particularly noteworthy; it seems unlikely that she would have made these statements without Bernie in the race. That is probably why even the New York Times editorial board, who endorsed Hillary, wrote immediately after the New York primary that Bernie should stay in the race until the end. It is more than just a candidate that will come out of this race, especially in a contest that has mobilized a mass movement of millions of people. And so it is far from over.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-w...b_9885706.html

[Gamma]

I am not sure why Bill is an issue? He remains one of the most popular ex presidents with the public knowing what they know.

It's not new ground or a revelation and most importantly it's not Bill that's running. Even as popular as Bill is though he could t deliver against Obama because if the broad base of support Obama had. Cannot say the same for Trump

[Sir X]

Bill isn't an issue but Trump hopes he can make him one.I hope he keeps trying g in the General, just another turnoff that will push wom.en in droves to Clinton, women I perceive will look at it as another attempt to victimize her.Even so it gives Bill the spotlight in ripping him in policy.

[Time]

Bill isn't an issue but Trump hopes he can make him one.I hope he keeps trying g in the General, just another turnoff that will push wom.en in droves to Clinton, women I perceive will look at it as another attempt to victimize her.Even so it gives Bill the spotlight in ripping him in policy.

There is unfinished business at hand;

1) Hillary needs to knock out Saunders ASAP.

2) Hillary needs to survive this e-mail server thing. Trump is going to remind voters about her IT Director's missing e-mails

3) We also need to see who lines up behind Trump. Cruz says that if he wins enough delegates (his name is still on the ballots) then he would consider restarting his campaign. I call bull___t on that one.

4) The GOP establishment needs to decide if they want to launch a 3rd party candidate. Trump said that his supporter are not going to switch even if he shoots someone in Manhattan. If he is right then a 3rd party candidate may actually take democratic votes and hand Trump the presidency.

[Islandman]

Well, they have sold themselves as a type of two-for-one deal, so that is how they will be viewed going forward. You just can't separate them and their policies now.

Bill is much more vulnerable to personal attack from Trump than Obama is, and if it becomes a personal attack type of campaign he will be a yuuge part of it.

[Islandman]

Apparently the long shot that some of the #neverTrumpers they are looking at is to find a third party candidate who would focus their campaign in just 2 or 3 swing states , say Ohio, Colorado and Florida. If they could win just those 2 or 3 they could stop both Trump and Hillary from getting to the required 270 electoral votes.

If that happens the decision on who will be the next president goes to the House and they would select that 3rd candidate. That is their dream scenario.

Desperate times call for desperate measures I guess. Many of them prefer Hillary winning and fight again in 4 years than to have Trump win and redefine the party for a generation.

[Sir X]

How else has Trump ran his campaigns,little Marco,Lying Ted,etc...lol....it will be personal attacks.

[Rudi]

There is unfinished business at hand;

1) Hillary needs to knock out Saunders ASAP.

2) Hillary needs to survive this e-mail server thing. Trump is going to remind voters about her IT Director's missing e-mails

3) We also need to see who lines up behind Trump. Cruz says that if he wins enough delegates (his name is still on the ballots) then he would consider restarting his campaign. I call bull___t on that one.

4) The GOP establishment needs to decide if they want to launch a 3rd party candidate. Trump said that his supporter are not going to switch even if he shoots someone in Manhattan. If he is right then a 3rd party candidate may actually take democratic votes and hand Trump the presidency.

Why would a third party GOP candidate take democratic votes? I would think any votes taken would be non Trump GOP supporters who have no one to vote for as it stands now.

[Islandman]

Agreed, but they could take independents away with a centrist candidate if such a thing still exists in the GOP. I don't think any of the 17 than were at the starting line fits that description.

[Karl]

What is a BLOWOUT?

I have been a political animal...similar to fanatic ...football and Track & Field - from mi yeye deh hah mi nee!

- In these United States of America the race for the presidency occurs on 2 levels...unlike Jamaica. These 2 are for the popular vote and State by State 'first past the post'.

In Jamaica it is popular vote in 'first past the post' Parish by Parish sprint.

- Here is where both countries are similar:
i) The electorate is split in three factions: US: Republicans: Democrats: Independents = the significant group termed "swing voters".

Jamaica: Jamaica Labour Party supporters: People National Party supporters: Independents = "swing voters".

ii) A rough break down of election results has in both countries an approximate voting block of solid unwavering support for either party of 47% - through 48%. ...with Independents "swinging to and fro" through 4% - 6%.

Conclusions: On popular vote the elections are just about always close. A few votes in a number of States/Parishes...so called key States/Parishes = in play States/Parishes determine who wins or loses.

Are there reasons to think in this upcoming US election it will not be close?
I do not think so!

In the US there is a final determinant = Electoral College votes.
http://www.diffen.com/difference/Ele...s_Popular_Vote

Because of the "first past the post" nature of Jamaica's general elections there can easily be a blow-out on MP count...and Party win.

In the US there can be a blow-out both on States won and popular vote that do not translate into Electoral College votes blow-out. There could also be an Electoral College blow-out...however in both cases, however, it is hardly likely that either party shall have a popular vote blow-out.

So...when "blow-out" is mentioned in our upcoming US Elections what is being spoken about?

"The people" will once again speak in November and if "one man, one vote" is the standard blow-out will not be on the cards...so which of the 'number of States won' or Electoral College votes shall most likely present 'blow-out'?

[Sir X]

Read the thread starter,Wang explains it.

[Time]

Why would a third party GOP candidate take democratic votes? I would think any votes taken would be non Trump GOP supporters who have no one to vote for as it stands now.

Bernie Saunders young and independent supporters are not too much into Hillary. They may find a 3rd party candidate attractive.