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It's 9:30 am on a work day. Do you know where your robot is?

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  • It's 9:30 am on a work day. Do you know where your robot is?

    How robots will even affect the jobs of people we thought were immune

    By Ana Swanson November 6, 2015

    We’re used to thinking that the jobs that are most likely to be taken over by automation are low-skilled ones: clerks, lowly paper pushers, assembly line workers. In contrast, those on the very high end of the wage scale -- doctors, CEOs and hedge fund managers -- seem like they will be comfortably insulated from the robot revolution.

    But new research from McKinsey & Company, a consultancy, shows that that isn't quite right. While there is a connection between a job's skill level and the likelihood it will be automated, there are a lot of jobs that don't fit that pattern. One example: CEOs, whose jobs will be more affected by automation than landscapers, the researchers say.

    The researchers argue that the way we usually talk about robots displacing workers is misleading. We typically try to identify the jobs that will disappear because of automation. In the near term, however, very few occupations will be automated away entirely. McKinsey estimates that, with the technology available today, fewer than 5 percent of occupations could be entirely turned over to robots.

    The more accurate way to think about this, they say, is not in terms of entire jobs, but in terms of activities. Few of us will actually be replaced by a robot. But there are tons of workers who will have part of their jobs taken away by automation. That category includes not only low-paid workers, but the most highly paid jobs in the U.S. -- including doctors, hedge fund managers and CEOs.
    TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

    Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

    D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

  • #2
    Originally posted by Don1 View Post
    How robots will even affect the jobs of people we thought were immune

    By Ana Swanson November 6, 2015

    We’re used to thinking that the jobs that are most likely to be taken over by automation are low-skilled ones: clerks, lowly paper pushers, assembly line workers. In contrast, those on the very high end of the wage scale -- doctors, CEOs and hedge fund managers -- seem like they will be comfortably insulated from the robot revolution.

    But new research from McKinsey & Company, a consultancy, shows that that isn't quite right. While there is a connection between a job's skill level and the likelihood it will be automated, there are a lot of jobs that don't fit that pattern. One example: CEOs, whose jobs will be more affected by automation than landscapers, the researchers say.

    The researchers argue that the way we usually talk about robots displacing workers is misleading. We typically try to identify the jobs that will disappear because of automation. In the near term, however, very few occupations will be automated away entirely. McKinsey estimates that, with the technology available today, fewer than 5 percent of occupations could be entirely turned over to robots.

    The more accurate way to think about this, they say, is not in terms of entire jobs, but in terms of activities. Few of us will actually be replaced by a robot. But there are tons of workers who will have part of their jobs taken away by automation. That category includes not only low-paid workers, but the most highly paid jobs in the U.S. -- including doctors, hedge fund managers and CEOs.
    Now this is on point!
    It relates to changes! ...not the disappearance of 'meaningful work'! The companion thought must be that there shall be creation of entirely new jobs...both on space-ship-earth and outside of space-ship earth!
    "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

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    • #3
      The key is for educational institutions to produce graduates who are TRAINABLE. This requires a basic level of academic competence as well as softer skills like critical thinking, problem solving and communicating.

      Once you have those and a healthy positive attitude you can adjust as required. Nobody was born to be a mechanic , doctor or computer engineer. We simply have certain aptitudes, some we are born with and some we develop, then we apply them in areas where there is a demand for them.
      "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Karl View Post
        Now this is on point!
        It relates to changes! ...not the disappearance of 'meaningful work'! The companion thought must be that there shall be creation of entirely new jobs...both on space-ship-earth and outside of space-ship earth!
        I believe the point you're missing is that although new jobs will be created..many more old one will disappear. So the net effect will be negative job growth

        This because technology morphs into more powerful & capable forms much faster than the job market (i.e. humans) can react via training, re-orientation & re-deployment.

        Plus it will be cheaper...the life cycle cost of an industrial robot will be pennies to the dollar vs equivalent human labor. That's the issue
        TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

        Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

        D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

        Comment


        • #5
          I believe the point you're missing is that although new jobs will be created..many more old one will disappear
          I don't believe we know this for sure. In fact i think it will depend on the overall skill set of the work force in question.

          US Census figures:

          1870: 47.6% of the employed were in agriculture
          1900: 35.7% of the employed were in agriculture
          1970: 3.6% of the employed were in agriculture

          US high school graduation rate in 1900 ~ 2%
          US high school graduation rate in 1970 ~ 75%.

          Now if that workforce retraining did not happen the US economy would have been a very different place by the 1950s, perhaps 50% unemployment (ok that is an oversimplified estimate but you get the point). That is what I believe is critically missing this time around, the population is not being trained or retrained to meet the rapid technological changes. It may or may not be too late to fix that, I am not sure.
          Last edited by Islandman; March 10, 2016, 02:46 PM.
          "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Islandman View Post
            I don't believe we know this for sure. In fact i think it will depend on the overall skill set of the work force in question.
            You're right, we certainly don't know for certain.

            The history of the world shows us that the countries that embrace technology, even as anxiety persists about the loss of jobs, have all gone on to be successful.

            I realise that perhaps this new development (robots, AI) may be a different ballgame than losing Photo Express to camera phones, but the countries that encourage and embrace change due to technological advances have all seemed to keep ahead of those countries that don't.


            BLACK LIVES MATTER

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Islandman View Post
              I don't believe we know this for sure. In fact i think it will depend on the overall skill set of the work force in question.

              US Census figures:

              1870: 47.6% of the employed were in agriculture
              1900: 35.7% of the employed were in agriculture
              1970: 3.6% of the employed were in agriculture

              US high school graduation rate in 1900 ~ 2%
              US high school graduation rate in 1970 ~ 75%.

              Now if that workforce retraining did not happen the US economy would have been a very different place by the 1950s, perhaps 50% unemployment (ok that is an oversimplified estimate but you get the point). That is what I believe is critically missing this time around, the population is not being trained or retrained to meet the rapid technological changes. It may or may not be too late to fix that, I am not sure.
              I don't know if it's too late or not to fix the retraining issue....but these things I do know:

              * Technology shifts are already fast..but with thinking/learning machines in regular play the shifts will be MUCH faster. Once a machine reaches human level capability in a job it'll learn and become more capable much faster than a human can

              * Businesses (on a whole) don't see any imperative to help re-train workers. It's relatively expensive when the alternative is a robot machine or program

              The imperative will be the lowest cost effective solutions...Why go to hassle & expense of training a human and all the associated HRM costs & issues when your competitor won't??

              Cost competitiveness run di cut
              TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

              Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

              D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

              Comment


              • #8
                Yes some of the people who study these things do believe that this time it is different because of the pace and breadth of the changes this time around.

                I am not yet convinced, not because I don't think there will be disruption, but because humans have shown the uncanny ability to find solutions when we really need to.
                "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

                Comment


                • #9
                  I get all that but isn't there a point that will be reached where that approach is no longer viable? If nobody is employing anybody and these people are not finding new ways to earn a living then who is buying the goods and services produced by the robots? Other robots?

                  I think we may shift back to a workforce that is largely self-employed with more specialty and differentiation. Or perhaps new economic systems will be adapted.

                  I just don't think the only outcome possible is anarchy and the breakdown of civilization as we know it.
                  "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    "who is buying the goods and services produced by the robots"

                    haha

                    "I just don't think the only outcome possible is anarchy and the breakdown of civilization as we know it."

                    Can we all co-exist?
                    • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

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                    • #11
                      I get all that but isn't there a point that will be reached where that approach is no longer viable? If nobody is employing anybody and these people are not finding new ways to earn a living then who is buying the goods and services produced by the robots? Other robots?
                      Interesting

                      Well I think the job/income losses due to automation are already occurring. The US has a supposedly strong economy now but job growth is tepid and incomes at the middle and lower level are less than they were in the 1990s (inflation adjusted) Ok it's not due only or even mainly to automation but many believe that plays a role. One question is: If jobs are hard to come by in a "boom" period...what will happen when the inevitable bust arrives?
                      Statistically there's a bust every 7-8 years or so ...so one is due. I don't believe the govt unemployment numbers because so many have given up looking for work...not to mention the masses of underemployed

                      But since robots can increase productivity massively....there will always be affordable trinkets for people to buy and pretty advertising to create the artificial demand. Suh evvyting kriss
                      I think we may shift back to a workforce that is largely self-employed with more specialty and differentiation. Or perhaps new economic systems will be adapted.
                      That's happening...they call it the "sharing economy"
                      I just don't think the only outcome possible is anarchy and the breakdown of civilization as we know it.
                      I'm not expecting anarchy based solely on AI tech. But if it does cause significant job losses...that allied with the increasing "financialization" of the US economy can cause extreme income inequality. If/when that occurs...any number can play.

                      Babylon aint creating militarized police forces nationwide & full spectrum surveillance of EVERYBODY juss fi find couple eediat terrorist
                      Last edited by Don1; March 10, 2016, 10:00 PM.
                      TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

                      Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

                      D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

                      Comment

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