Tweet
Hype, money and elections
Michael Burke
Thursday, July 05, 2007
If people paid attention to history, the analysis by many leading up to the election would be more objective. For three straight years from 1969 to 1972, Michael Manley led an intensive campaign before then prime minister Hugh Lawson Shearer called the election. But although the PNP was on the campaign trail early, it did not force Shearer's hand to call the election before it was constitutionally due. According to Shearer, "Only one man can decide the date of elections and dat man is I-Man".
It was in September 1969 that Michael Manley came back from Ethiopia with the rod of correction which he said he had got from Emperor Haile Selassie. Whenever he held it up at a rally it was like electricity going through the crowd. Many inside the JLP, including Edward Seaga, saw the magical effect it was having on turning voters to the PNP.
There was a break-in at Michael Manley's house some time in 1971. At a rally at Bolivar's statue at National Heroes Circle, Michael Manley said, "I know why they broke into my home." He then held up the rod. The response was greater than thunder and the vibration greater than an earthquake. Manley told them: "But an angel appeared to me in a dream and said, 'Joshua, let not thy rod out of thy reach'."
I know all of this first-hand because I was there. In 1971, I entered the working world. In 1972 Seaga told a JLP rally that he had found the rod. In response, Manley had a PNP rally to show that it was not so and that he was still in possession of the rod. The difference between then and now was that the hype at political rallies was not televised. The stay-at-home intellectuals literally saw a different side of the politicians. But at the time, political rallies had a greater role in elections than they do today.
So the fact that the Jamaica Labour Party started its campaign from last year for an election that is constitutionally due in October this year does not mean that the election would be called whenever they wanted it. The year 1980 was different. The violent tensions in the society caused by a number of factors made Manley decide to call the elections one year early and get them out of the way, even though it did not suit him politically.
In all other cases where elections were called early, it was because it suited the governing party, as in 1959 with Norman Manley, 1983 with Edward Seaga and 1993 with PJ Patterson. In 1962, Norman Manley thought it suited him to call the election early. He did and he lost. I do not count the December 1976 election as being early because it was held only two months before it was constitutionally due. And if it had suited Portia Simpson Miller to call the elections earlier she would have done so. But the PNP needs to gather some funds. Most commentators do not understand the role of money in elections.
It is organisation that wins elections and if organisation is the vehicle by which elections are won, then money is the fuel. It is obvious in the way the JLP has spent money that they have more funds than the PNP. That is the number one reason why elections have not yet been called. It would take time for the ruling PNP to gather more party funds.
I tried to explain this from last year when I remarked that I did not believe that elections would have been called in 2006. Very few people understood what I was saying because most people do not understand the role of money in elections. Let me explain further. No matter what the public opinion pollsters say about which party is in front, the correct forecast of any poll depends on certain mechanisms being in place on election day. And those mechanisms (read organisation) take money.
One hears the naïve and nonsensical argument that the PNP is in power so it can spend money. With the greatest of respect, that is not how elections are won in Jamaica. In the first place, with respect to the party in power, not everyone gets the "road work" or whatever. In the second place, elections are won when a sufficient number of people are hyped up at rallies. And part of the hype is to wear the party colours, get into buses and sing party songs and shout party slogans. They will get boxes of beer and a grand or two as well as a "box lunch".
So the hype in other matters is useless if a party does not have what it takes to win on election day. For example, the unexplained islandwide power outage on Tuesday takes on greater proportions in an election year. And by the way, we have some clichés that are used for occasions.
We hear that Jamaica was "plunged into darkness". How dark is Jamaica at 5:10 am in the month of July and with a slightly fading full moon even if one turns on lights to see better? The bright sun might have been out in Port Antonio. But we seem to have love for emotive phrases.
I wish elections were won on the issues. But this is not so. Elections are won by hyping up the people at rallies and that takes money. It takes money to fit several thousand into the party colours, to rent the buses, to give out money, beer and food. All of that takes organisation. And organisation takes money.
Michael Burke
Thursday, July 05, 2007
If people paid attention to history, the analysis by many leading up to the election would be more objective. For three straight years from 1969 to 1972, Michael Manley led an intensive campaign before then prime minister Hugh Lawson Shearer called the election. But although the PNP was on the campaign trail early, it did not force Shearer's hand to call the election before it was constitutionally due. According to Shearer, "Only one man can decide the date of elections and dat man is I-Man".
It was in September 1969 that Michael Manley came back from Ethiopia with the rod of correction which he said he had got from Emperor Haile Selassie. Whenever he held it up at a rally it was like electricity going through the crowd. Many inside the JLP, including Edward Seaga, saw the magical effect it was having on turning voters to the PNP.
There was a break-in at Michael Manley's house some time in 1971. At a rally at Bolivar's statue at National Heroes Circle, Michael Manley said, "I know why they broke into my home." He then held up the rod. The response was greater than thunder and the vibration greater than an earthquake. Manley told them: "But an angel appeared to me in a dream and said, 'Joshua, let not thy rod out of thy reach'."
I know all of this first-hand because I was there. In 1971, I entered the working world. In 1972 Seaga told a JLP rally that he had found the rod. In response, Manley had a PNP rally to show that it was not so and that he was still in possession of the rod. The difference between then and now was that the hype at political rallies was not televised. The stay-at-home intellectuals literally saw a different side of the politicians. But at the time, political rallies had a greater role in elections than they do today.
So the fact that the Jamaica Labour Party started its campaign from last year for an election that is constitutionally due in October this year does not mean that the election would be called whenever they wanted it. The year 1980 was different. The violent tensions in the society caused by a number of factors made Manley decide to call the elections one year early and get them out of the way, even though it did not suit him politically.
In all other cases where elections were called early, it was because it suited the governing party, as in 1959 with Norman Manley, 1983 with Edward Seaga and 1993 with PJ Patterson. In 1962, Norman Manley thought it suited him to call the election early. He did and he lost. I do not count the December 1976 election as being early because it was held only two months before it was constitutionally due. And if it had suited Portia Simpson Miller to call the elections earlier she would have done so. But the PNP needs to gather some funds. Most commentators do not understand the role of money in elections.
It is organisation that wins elections and if organisation is the vehicle by which elections are won, then money is the fuel. It is obvious in the way the JLP has spent money that they have more funds than the PNP. That is the number one reason why elections have not yet been called. It would take time for the ruling PNP to gather more party funds.
I tried to explain this from last year when I remarked that I did not believe that elections would have been called in 2006. Very few people understood what I was saying because most people do not understand the role of money in elections. Let me explain further. No matter what the public opinion pollsters say about which party is in front, the correct forecast of any poll depends on certain mechanisms being in place on election day. And those mechanisms (read organisation) take money.
One hears the naïve and nonsensical argument that the PNP is in power so it can spend money. With the greatest of respect, that is not how elections are won in Jamaica. In the first place, with respect to the party in power, not everyone gets the "road work" or whatever. In the second place, elections are won when a sufficient number of people are hyped up at rallies. And part of the hype is to wear the party colours, get into buses and sing party songs and shout party slogans. They will get boxes of beer and a grand or two as well as a "box lunch".
So the hype in other matters is useless if a party does not have what it takes to win on election day. For example, the unexplained islandwide power outage on Tuesday takes on greater proportions in an election year. And by the way, we have some clichés that are used for occasions.
We hear that Jamaica was "plunged into darkness". How dark is Jamaica at 5:10 am in the month of July and with a slightly fading full moon even if one turns on lights to see better? The bright sun might have been out in Port Antonio. But we seem to have love for emotive phrases.
I wish elections were won on the issues. But this is not so. Elections are won by hyping up the people at rallies and that takes money. It takes money to fit several thousand into the party colours, to rent the buses, to give out money, beer and food. All of that takes organisation. And organisation takes money.
Comment