JLP 32 to PNP 31 - St Mary South East

[Assasin]

Good time for democracy. The JLP will have to work hard and honest and seek the support of the PNP on some things. Arrogance on either part could result in a lot at the poll the next time around.

Communication and work in constituency is also key here.

[Reggaedoc]

More like cause for concern. If the PNP was to win another recount and flip the result what then? I had some concerns about this when I saw the close result and when Portia gave that signal about checking the counts.

Perhaps they should delay Andrews swearing in for another week to avoid a constitutional crisis?

No doubt. The government or the courts should block any swearing in until all recounts have been completed. The election was just too close for anything to be taken for granted.

[Gamma]

I understand , and I guess recounts could go on for a while. It gives me an uncomfortable feeling though.

Any idea what would have to be done constitutionally in the unlikely scenario that two seats get reversed and it is held up in court?

Also, given the margin is likely to be one seat, what happens if a member of the majority leaves the party , or crosses the aisle? I am guessing there would have to be another election, or does the sittting PM have the legal right to continue?

Unprecedented times.

Good questions. If the sitting govt gets an inkling I think they would call an election to try to get a proper mandate. Otherwise then they no longer have the majority and therefore do not have the right to recommend a prime minister would be my guess.

[Time]

The General Election with be certified by the EOJ as JLP 32 and PNP 31 and Andrew Holness with be sworn in on Tuesday. The Prime Minister of Jamaica has the option to call a General Election at any time. Expect the JLP Government to rush through the 1.5 million tax break and be ready to call a General Election if they lose a seat or a budget vote.

[Jawge]

bang on that's exactly the strategy. His mentor told him... anyway the snag is if he call the snap election and the PNP do not protest and walk out but campaign in the short period (in short calling his bluff). That explains the haste to go in. Glad you saw it as I saw it.

Use a snap election to clear the house but that was 80s the parameters have chaged much since then

[Time]

I believe that there is a standard procedure for the GG to appoint new PM from the current parliament should the government loses a budget vote or a no confidence vote. However, the current PM has the trump card of calling an election instead of stepping down.

[Jawge]

You can forget that tax break . Andrew has to follow the IMF's structural adjustment; they want their money back. IMF would draw a red line through that no can do. Andrew can't afford to miss a payment now.

This gives PNP room to walk the streets and say "see what did I tell you".

[Assasin]

Did EOJ screw this up? Why didn't they have a check box for people to vote in on the ballot?

[Islandman]

Just spoke to someone in the know. They said the recounts will be done before the swearing in on Tuesday. There may be challenges after that but essentially the final result will be known.

[Islandman]

West st Thomas now looking iffy. They are thinking about moving the vote counting.

Let's hope this does not get out of control

[Time]

You can forget that tax break . Andrew has to follow the IMF's structural adjustment; they want their money back. IMF would draw a red line through that no can do. Andrew can't afford to miss a payment now.

This gives PNP room to walk the streets and say "see what did I tell you".

I will bet you bragging rights on this forum that he will do the 1.5 million tax break even if it means failing the next IMF test. Missing a payment is a default, that is not going to happen, he will find the money, even if it means massive GCT or specific taxes on luxury sales.

[Islandman]

West St Thomas ballot boxes on the move to Kingston under heavy JDF security. Counting will continue tomorrow.

Say a prayer for Jamaica tonight.

[Westman]

The St Mary seat will go back to Labourite when magisterial count is done. I hope this is all resolved soon because restlessness among fanatics on both sides could result in dangerous occurrences.

[Islandman]

That might well happen. This could go on for a while, Memories of Bush-Gore 2000 and Florida.

The word I am hearing is that they are still planning for PM swearing in on Tuesday but if another seat flips and changes the result it will probably be put on hold until magisterial recounts in all disputed seats are completed.

These developments will test the maturity of our electorate and leaders. Elections this close are always challenging to resolve. Every disputed and spoilt ballot will become an issue.

[Time]

The St Mary seat will go back to Labourite when magisterial count is done. I hope this is all resolved soon because restlessness among fanatics on both sides could result in dangerous occurrences.

St Thomas Western is also in doubt. They moved the ballot boxes to Kingston because of 'security concerns.' You are correct, there is potential for big trouble. Let's hope that cooler heads prevail.