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The ICT future
published: Thursday | June 28, 2007
Martin Henry
A month ago, the annual lecture of the GraceKennedy Foundation was delivered by Caribbean ICT master, Kenneth Sylvester, on 'Information Communication Technology - Shaping our Lives.' Sylvester began by examining ICT in social and economic transformation and ended with a futuristic look 'Beyond the Information Society.'
Just over a decade ago, the Futurist magazine carried an article, 'The Cyber Future', by its editor and president of the World Future Society, Edward Cornish, making 92 predictions about where ICT was going to take us. I have always been fascinated by futurism, from Bible prophecy to the prognostications of scientists and science fiction writers. As a university undergraduate, I did the required book review for Use of English on Alvin Toffler's Future Shock.
The biggest, fastest, most complex changes which humankind has ever had to run with are happening now. No change is of greater magnitude than the ICT revolution driven by the computer hooked up to the older telephone. That is essentially what the internet is.
Biggest machine ever built
Top futurist, Edward Cornish began his piece noting that, "The global network of interconnected computers and telecommunications links is already the biggest machine ever built." And the weirdest one, with no location, no physical form, no owner, and precious little management. "This monster machine will fundamentally transform human life as we know it today," Cornish heralded. Hardly a big brainer conclusion.
And the GKF lecturer, Sylvester says, "The convergence of super-computing power, the advanced intelligence of computers, the increased integration of computer chips and the pervasive networking capabilities of wireless communication continue to transform our world at speeds that are incomprehensible. New technologies are suggesting that the time is fast approaching when our entire lives will be managedand controlled by computers that have the ability to think, to be aware of their existence and which are choice makers without intervention from humans."
Cultural change
Cornish's decade-old article comprehensively surveyed: Cultural change, education, work, business and the economy, money, government, media and entertainment, private life, and some more general areas. Let's work with Cornish and come back to Sylvester another time.
As Cornish himself points out, his work is more trending than predicting. The futurist overlooked key areas like religion and war. Among his 92 trend lines: Many people may largely abandon the 'real world' in the future, preferring to live in the fictitious world created by the entertainment industry.
Cash may become unpopular with everyone except thieves, tax dodgers, and paranoiacs. As the global culture grows, local cultures will decline and hundreds of languages will disappear. But new sorts of culture and language will appear. The infomedia will tend to desocialise people making them more prone to antisocial and criminal behaviour and people will become increasingly egocentric and selfish. Smart houses and cars will increase human physical comfort - and social isolation.
The cyber society will put a high premium on entrepreneurship. Infotech will take over far more jobs for which humans were once thought indispensable, but human teachers will still be needed in education.
Increased global productivity could drastically strain the earth's natural resources. The increasing complexity of the global financial system will make it highly vulnerable to disruptions. [And it can only be a matter of time before the fatal flap of the butterfly's wing of chaos theory sets off a catastrophic collapse of the system.]
Limited control
Governments will have only limited control over cyber space [Tell the Chinese and the Cubans - and the Americans too]. Important, complex, sensitive decisions will be submitted to computers. Lawyers will spend years trying to cope with the legal issues raised by infotech. And intellectual property rights will become a burning issue, perhaps even leading to war [which, of course, will be a high-tech war].
Cybersex may become widely available. Privacy will be harder to maintain. Cyberspace will contain huge 'memorial gardens' for the dead, including pets and even inanimate objects. Interpersonal relationships will likely be increasingly unstable. People may lose much of their ability to think rationally and make wise decisions. And infotech will be implanted in our bodies. Martin Henry is a communications consultant.
published: Thursday | June 28, 2007
Martin Henry
A month ago, the annual lecture of the GraceKennedy Foundation was delivered by Caribbean ICT master, Kenneth Sylvester, on 'Information Communication Technology - Shaping our Lives.' Sylvester began by examining ICT in social and economic transformation and ended with a futuristic look 'Beyond the Information Society.'
Just over a decade ago, the Futurist magazine carried an article, 'The Cyber Future', by its editor and president of the World Future Society, Edward Cornish, making 92 predictions about where ICT was going to take us. I have always been fascinated by futurism, from Bible prophecy to the prognostications of scientists and science fiction writers. As a university undergraduate, I did the required book review for Use of English on Alvin Toffler's Future Shock.
The biggest, fastest, most complex changes which humankind has ever had to run with are happening now. No change is of greater magnitude than the ICT revolution driven by the computer hooked up to the older telephone. That is essentially what the internet is.
Biggest machine ever built
Top futurist, Edward Cornish began his piece noting that, "The global network of interconnected computers and telecommunications links is already the biggest machine ever built." And the weirdest one, with no location, no physical form, no owner, and precious little management. "This monster machine will fundamentally transform human life as we know it today," Cornish heralded. Hardly a big brainer conclusion.
And the GKF lecturer, Sylvester says, "The convergence of super-computing power, the advanced intelligence of computers, the increased integration of computer chips and the pervasive networking capabilities of wireless communication continue to transform our world at speeds that are incomprehensible. New technologies are suggesting that the time is fast approaching when our entire lives will be managedand controlled by computers that have the ability to think, to be aware of their existence and which are choice makers without intervention from humans."
Cultural change
Cornish's decade-old article comprehensively surveyed: Cultural change, education, work, business and the economy, money, government, media and entertainment, private life, and some more general areas. Let's work with Cornish and come back to Sylvester another time.
As Cornish himself points out, his work is more trending than predicting. The futurist overlooked key areas like religion and war. Among his 92 trend lines: Many people may largely abandon the 'real world' in the future, preferring to live in the fictitious world created by the entertainment industry.
Cash may become unpopular with everyone except thieves, tax dodgers, and paranoiacs. As the global culture grows, local cultures will decline and hundreds of languages will disappear. But new sorts of culture and language will appear. The infomedia will tend to desocialise people making them more prone to antisocial and criminal behaviour and people will become increasingly egocentric and selfish. Smart houses and cars will increase human physical comfort - and social isolation.
The cyber society will put a high premium on entrepreneurship. Infotech will take over far more jobs for which humans were once thought indispensable, but human teachers will still be needed in education.
Increased global productivity could drastically strain the earth's natural resources. The increasing complexity of the global financial system will make it highly vulnerable to disruptions. [And it can only be a matter of time before the fatal flap of the butterfly's wing of chaos theory sets off a catastrophic collapse of the system.]
Limited control
Governments will have only limited control over cyber space [Tell the Chinese and the Cubans - and the Americans too]. Important, complex, sensitive decisions will be submitted to computers. Lawyers will spend years trying to cope with the legal issues raised by infotech. And intellectual property rights will become a burning issue, perhaps even leading to war [which, of course, will be a high-tech war].
Cybersex may become widely available. Privacy will be harder to maintain. Cyberspace will contain huge 'memorial gardens' for the dead, including pets and even inanimate objects. Interpersonal relationships will likely be increasingly unstable. People may lose much of their ability to think rationally and make wise decisions. And infotech will be implanted in our bodies. Martin Henry is a communications consultant.
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