Trump surging in wake of Paris attacks

[Islandman]

Why does he say the things he does? Because they work.

Well, it now looks like Trump and Carson will be in it for the long run and one of them may very well win it. This must really scare the Republican establishment.

Donald Trump has gained political strength since the Paris terrorist attacks last Friday, according to most of the polls released in the aftermath.

Trump’s gains show him once again confounding Beltway wisdom, where the widespread view was that such a grave event would lead voters to look toward White House candidates who are purportedly more mature and sophisticated than the erstwhile star of “The Apprentice.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...-paris-attacks

[Mosiah]

HL, any views on how dumb Americans have proven themselves to be, supporting these idiots?

I would vote for Portia over any Repug candidate!

[Peter R]

Are there any "good" Republican candidates?

[Mosiah]

There some things about Kasich and Paul that I like.

When it comes to Cruz, Fiorina, Rubio, Trump and Bush, there is nothing I like about them, in that order!

[Sir X]

All these incidents fits his narratives,he does have points but his reactions and solutions are extreme,Isis coming over the board through a leaky mexican border ,let the russians bomb.Those sell, he can point to Paris and say I told you so,it appeals to his base and those on the sidelines gripped by fear.

[Jangle]

The man seh fi close down all mosques here and mek Muslims have specific ID cards. Now doctor man trying to out-trump him by comparing Muslims to stray dawgs. They are an embarrassment.

[Stonigut]

I-man, you really believe that. I don't see that at all and to me these polls are foolishness anyway, until the people start making their will known through the process all of this talk is pure fluff. Trump or Carson to win the nomination is just like the press saying Ronda Rousey is the best fighter male or female the world has seen, just pure trash, of course, maybe the best bantamweight female in Ufc up to last week. Anyway if Trump or Carson makes it through the process and make the top three I would be shocked, lets see.

[Sir X]

Stray dogs Im say sick dawg.Bredda was nuh good.

[Sir X]

I too have doubt about Polls and the media,the hype is all about ratings,it fits a narrative. The revolution will not be televised.

[Islandman]

Stoni, all a poll represents is a snapshot of opinion at a point in time. It is not a prediction of what that opinion will be in a month, or a year. Like anything else the situation on the ground can change and with that the polls will change. However early polling does give clues about whose support is solid and whose is fragile.

Nobody took Trump seriously for long time because he seemed to be a flash in the pan like a Herman Cain. Well six months later we know he is not, the base support is much more solid for him and Carson that nobody expected. Will it last to the end? We don't know that yet but they are certainly credible threats in a way nobody thought they would be a year ago.

The people who support those two are of a certain mindset, they are angry and they are in no mood to compromise. No way will they move over to a Bush or Christie. Their next choice will probably be Ted Cruz.

I think Rubio and Cruz will also be in the mix during the voting process. Rubio I believe Rubio is the most electable of the whole pack. Frankly he is one of very few on the Republican side that I would be OK with if he were to win. If Bernie Sanders was the Democrat nominee I would vote for Rubio over him.

Your comparison of election polling with polling the press about a sports outcome is not very credible. In one case you are polling a sample of the people whose opinion will eventually determine the outcome, in the other the outcome is totally out of their hands.

[Stonigut]

Agree, but it always is the case that when real selection time come and real honest to goodness people making the choice common sense comes to the fore.
I think Kasich, NJ guv if he can get past bridgegate and the other fatguy from Arkansas will come to the fore, people are too pragmatic to vote for those two neophytes, even hardcore Republicans have a little pragmatism.

[Islandman]

I hope you right, but bwoy their actions in the House and Senate haven't inspired confidence in me for a while.

I genuinely like Kasich. Good ideas and a level head. Just can't see him rising in this environment though.

[Stonigut]

Yeah, so I see it too, Kasich is the only one that seems solid and straightforward, not swimming under a junk of hype.

[Islandman]

Nate Silver makes a strong case that supports your and Stonis viewpoint, he says way too many people are still in the undecided column to draw any meaningful conclusion about Trumps (and by extension Carsons) durability.

Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will play into Trump’s hands, or that Republicans really might be in disarray. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-trumps-polls/