Don1: The battle of robot and workforce automation theories.

[Islandman]

On the one hand we have Mckinsey saying that the impact of advanced robotics is real, but the change it will bring to the jobs market will not be catastrophic:

http://www.mckinsey.com//Insights/Bu...ace_automation

Our results to date suggest, first and foremost, that a focus on occupations is misleading. Very few occupations will be automated in their entirety in the near or medium term. Rather, certain activities are more likely to be automated, requiring entire business processes to be transformed, and jobs performed by people to be redefined, much like the bank teller’s job was redefined with the advent of ATMs.

But this Bank of America report is much more pessimistic, it predicts major disruption resulting and a very different workplace, with major social implications.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-a-decade.html

'The pace of disruptive technological innovation has gone from linear to parabolic,' says Bank of America

We are coming close to the crucial “inflexion point” when it is 15pc cheaper to use a robot than to employ a human worker.

This threshold has already been crossed in the American, European and Japanese car industries, where it costs $8 an hour to employ a robot for spot welding, compared to $25 for a worker. Hence the eerie post-human feel of the most up-to-date car plants. “We are facing a paradigm shift, which will change the way we live and work,” said the report's author, Beijia Ma.

Who will be proven correct? I guess we will have to wait and see, and be prepare dto adjust to all possible outcomes.

[Don1]

Yep very inneresting sociological & technological constructs

On the one hand we have Mckinsey saying that the impact of advanced robotics is real, but the change it will bring to the jobs market will not be catastrophic:

http://www.mckinsey.com//Insights/Bu...ace_automation



But this Bank of America report is much more pessimistic, it predicts major disruption resulting and a very different workplace, with major social implications.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-a-decade.html



Who will be proven correct? I guess we will have to wait and see, and be prepare dto adjust to all possible outcomes.

I don't see it as an either/or situation. The labor market is so large and variegated that there probably won't be one dominant AI rollout model or impact.

My guess is the back office functions in logistics/manufacturing/distribution etc which can be standardized and reduced to a level easily replicable by a robot...will be swamped with automated solutions...In fact that's already occurring and many job types are disappearing in those sectors. That's the low hanging fruit

Other jobs involving a level of intuition or which are customer-facing seem less amenable to automated solutions...at the moment

So I see a patchwork of impacts & varying levels off penetration for robotic workforce solutions.

However over time as the advanced AI "learns" and gets intrinsically smarter....more and more jobs will be at risk...especially as humans find robots more socially acceptable. For example in Japan robots are currently being used as attendants and companions for the vast number of elderly people there. That type of solution will slowly proliferate as people live longer globally and the cost of their care rises exponentially ...A Malthusian Dilemma

We can only imagine what such a world where robots begin to subsume more job types looks like. Scratch dat...instead of merely imagining...we must prepare our yutes to have the capacity to take advantage of such a world.

Otherwise we Black People will remain as we mainly are today:

Mere Drawers of Water and Hewers of Wood...plus butlers, taxi drivers, trinket sellers, entertainers, dancers, singers, runners and other sporting types = Perpetually Poor and at The Bottom of The Barrel

Failure is Not an Option

[Islandman]

I largely agree. I also think that more mainstream career opportunities will be created for humans in areas that are now only affordable by the wealthy. This is always happening to an extent. The example o like to use is personal trainers. There was a time when that was something only celebrities have, but now every middle class person who wants to pretend that they exercise wants a personal trainer.

I can imagine a time when more middle income people will be able to afford to have personal chefs , personal designers, doctors that make house calls and other such services that require a human touch and individual differentiation. Of course some of these careers already existed but were decimated in developed world societies by a previous cycle of technology and mass production. We still have some of them in the developing world but we call them helpers and tailors

[Don1]

Of course some of these careers already existed but were decimated in developed world societies by a previous cycle of technology and mass production. We still have some of them in the developing world but we call them helpers and tailors

Joshua 9:23

Now therefore you are cursed, and some of you shall never be anything but servants, cutters of wood and drawers of water for the house of my God.” Add Butlers, trinket sellers, taxi drivers, cooks, waiters, security guards, rent-a-dreads, tour guides, clerks, singers, dancers and sports people

[Islandman]

LOL. Those are 20th century versions of the profession. The era we are unfortunately still stuck in.

In the new era, chefs have social media pages with recipes and nutrition facts, tailors have websites with their designs and clients, tour guides have youtube videos showing their tours and knowledge expertise.

No matter the profession you better be able to work with the technology if you want to make decent income. No escaping that.

[Don1]

LOL. Those are 20th century versions of the profession. The era we are unfortunately still stuck in.

In the new era, chefs have social media pages with recipes and nutrition facts, tailors have websites with their designs and clients, tour guides have youtube videos showing their tours and knowledge expertise.

No matter the profession you better be able to work with the technology if you want to make decent income. No escaping that.

True dat