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Britain has about 86,000 inmates, of which about 11,000 are foreigners (157 natinalities).
Poland is first, then Ireland and then Jamaica. So Jamaican Nationals are about 7% of the foreigners, or just less than 1% of total inmates. That is say 750 out of 86 thousand.
For family and other reasons, all could not be transferred, so the current number mooted is 300, while the PNPyo says 500.
The Grant is for £25m, while the total, including the GOJ 60% would be $63m. The claim by the MoNS is that the facility will hold 1500 to 2K inmates, BUT Jamaica as of 2014 has 4050 total incarcerated, but that includes 689...so net 3361 "real" prisoners. Source: http://www.prisonstudies.org/country/jamaica
If we split the difference and say the new facility which will cost JA$12.6B in total, that Cameron will foot partially to the tune of JA$5B, will accomodate 1,750 inmates, of which say 400 are deportees, then we have space for "only" 1,350 locals. This 1350 represents only 40% of the hardcore total population of 3,361. Note that the 2009 prison total was some 28% HIGHER than in 2014, so if our incarceration rate climbs again, we could be looking at needing another 2 of these prisons, rather than the need for just another one.
So right now it seems that Jamaica needs to source funding for £125m for at least 2 prisons holding about 1,800 inmates each and the teaser from camercon is only 20% of that money.
Of course, Cameron is also offering a one-time fund of £5.5m in repatriation grants to resettle the prisoners, but nothing for their maintenace, which will save them about half of the £10m annual upkeep costs for the current 750 prisoners he has. Jamaica would have to fund that, ie JA$292m annually until the sentences run their course.
The talk of Govt raising funds for construction from the sale of GP and SCDP lands needs examination. I would assume that say at least 60% of our prisoners are housed in these 2 facilities and that means just over 2K inmates...more than the max capacity touted by the MoNS and much less than the split difference 1,750 - 400 = 1,350. This means that ONLY GP could be decommissioned and as its the more valuable real estate, it makes sense. The shortfall in construction $$$ is £63m-25m=£38m or USD$61m or JAD$730 for the waterfront 30 acre complex. Is that a realistic selling price for the land (I assume the building will be demolished, given the decrepid state)?
Let us be generous and say that GoJ could get £15m for the GP complex, that means that we would still have to incur debt of £23m and a new recurring prisoner upkeep cost of £1-2m a year to get a new facility.Is it worth it, or could we negotiate for more?
If the GoJ could push back and ask for double what has been offered, that would mean £50m plus £11m in resettlement costs, then we would only have to find £13m for construction and the hypothetical £15m sale of GP would cover than and then some. This would allow us to build for "free" and cover running costs for the deportees for a year out of the profits and another year or 2 out of the resettlement funds. I assme the weighted average duration of the prison terms remaining is some 8 years....so we effectively have to cover 5, ie £5-8m in total.
These are the facts as I see them.
Poland is first, then Ireland and then Jamaica. So Jamaican Nationals are about 7% of the foreigners, or just less than 1% of total inmates. That is say 750 out of 86 thousand.
For family and other reasons, all could not be transferred, so the current number mooted is 300, while the PNPyo says 500.
The Grant is for £25m, while the total, including the GOJ 60% would be $63m. The claim by the MoNS is that the facility will hold 1500 to 2K inmates, BUT Jamaica as of 2014 has 4050 total incarcerated, but that includes 689...so net 3361 "real" prisoners. Source: http://www.prisonstudies.org/country/jamaica
If we split the difference and say the new facility which will cost JA$12.6B in total, that Cameron will foot partially to the tune of JA$5B, will accomodate 1,750 inmates, of which say 400 are deportees, then we have space for "only" 1,350 locals. This 1350 represents only 40% of the hardcore total population of 3,361. Note that the 2009 prison total was some 28% HIGHER than in 2014, so if our incarceration rate climbs again, we could be looking at needing another 2 of these prisons, rather than the need for just another one.
So right now it seems that Jamaica needs to source funding for £125m for at least 2 prisons holding about 1,800 inmates each and the teaser from camercon is only 20% of that money.
Of course, Cameron is also offering a one-time fund of £5.5m in repatriation grants to resettle the prisoners, but nothing for their maintenace, which will save them about half of the £10m annual upkeep costs for the current 750 prisoners he has. Jamaica would have to fund that, ie JA$292m annually until the sentences run their course.
The talk of Govt raising funds for construction from the sale of GP and SCDP lands needs examination. I would assume that say at least 60% of our prisoners are housed in these 2 facilities and that means just over 2K inmates...more than the max capacity touted by the MoNS and much less than the split difference 1,750 - 400 = 1,350. This means that ONLY GP could be decommissioned and as its the more valuable real estate, it makes sense. The shortfall in construction $$$ is £63m-25m=£38m or USD$61m or JAD$730 for the waterfront 30 acre complex. Is that a realistic selling price for the land (I assume the building will be demolished, given the decrepid state)?
Let us be generous and say that GoJ could get £15m for the GP complex, that means that we would still have to incur debt of £23m and a new recurring prisoner upkeep cost of £1-2m a year to get a new facility.Is it worth it, or could we negotiate for more?
If the GoJ could push back and ask for double what has been offered, that would mean £50m plus £11m in resettlement costs, then we would only have to find £13m for construction and the hypothetical £15m sale of GP would cover than and then some. This would allow us to build for "free" and cover running costs for the deportees for a year out of the profits and another year or 2 out of the resettlement funds. I assme the weighted average duration of the prison terms remaining is some 8 years....so we effectively have to cover 5, ie £5-8m in total.
These are the facts as I see them.
Willi and Peter with the most of respect , this is not a matter of economics or the number adding up. Jamaica should not be in the prison insourcing business. Britain , the US , Canada et al should housed their own criminals or those socialized and criminalizes in their own countries. I think the idea is insulting to be honest! Maybe we should invest in vocational training institutes and that may lower the crimiinality and we may not need to build more jails.
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