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Not surprisingly, not a single comment has been published from the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) concerning its standing in the recent opinion polls. The yet unpublished Stone Polls put the PNP 6 to 8 percentage points ahead of the JLP and the published Anderson Polls put the PNP 4 percentage points ahead. The JLP’s position is not to comment on the polls when the polls put them behind.
The Observer has rubbished the suggestion that it had a political motive in not publishing the Stone Polls. It has claimed that it has not published the polls because the findings were leaked. This is not a credible position by the Observer because a poll usually includes a survey of a number of findings. If one of the findings of a given poll is leaked, it does not compromise or betray the remaining findings. The remainder of the poll results still has a lot of news value.
At any rate, the suggestion of a leak is an excuse invented after the fact. The self-justifying protests by the Observer seen in articles, columns, and editorials, have failed to address the deficit in its credibility.
The controversy aside, the poll findings (published and unpublished) do raise questions about the JLP. Why should the JLP be behind in the polls on the eve of the 2007 General Elections after 18 years of the PNP in government, when the governing party is seeking its fifth term in office?
The lag in the polls by the JLP appears to show that the party is once again about to squander its opportunity. The arguments about the Seaga factor used for the previous electoral defeats can no longer be advanced. Mr. Seaga has been retired and with him the excuse that he condemned his party to consecutive electoral defeats.
Bruce Golding, if not uniting the party, has managed by his stewardship as party leader to keep the JLP internal squabbles (such as there may be) out of the public domain. The vaunted JLP disunity is no longer a factor to be used to explain the disaffection with the JLP among voters.
Of course, it is possible that the pollsters could be proven wrong on election day, and the JLP ekes out a spectacular victory. “So man no dead n,o call him duppy.”
However, the scientism of political polling is a snapshot of the current position and the most optimistic interpretation of the JLP’s position in the polls in that it is stable. The JLP has neither improved nor deteriorated in the polls in the last 12 months.
Even though the “time for a change” theme has resonated with a wide cross-section of the electorate, the JLP has remained at 25 per cent of the popular vote in the last 12 months. Despite a full year of campaign and, more importantly, despite the expenditure of $120 million on political advertisements and rallies in 12 months, its position in the opinion polls has not changed.
What, therefore, are would-be voters seeing about the JLP that the JLP does not acknowledge in itself? The first is its incapacity to take on board the criticism of others or to respond by altering things that offend public sensibilities and sensitivity. This has been a weakness over the years. Every electoral loss from 1972 to 2002 has been accounted for by the JLP by suggesting that the voters have failed to make the right choice.
Allegations
The JLP has never taken on board the fact that rejection by the voters means that it needs to reform itself fundamentally. It has tinkered with this and that, but has never eaten humble pie and offered itself as a changed party. Coupled with that, the JLP responds to criticisms either by hunkering down and ignoring the criticism, or by abusing the critics and typecasting its critics as PNP sympathisers. Had the JLP been more sensitive to public sensibilities, there are at least three candidates that would have been dropped from the JLP slate of candidates. One of those candidates enjoys some seniority in the party, but is not trusted. Another has allegations against him, some of which border on the criminal. These allegations should at least be adequately responded to, if not cleared up, for a candidacy to be credible. Still, another is a throwback to the darkest days of Jamaican politics in the late 70’s and early 80’s - a loose cannon who is accountable to no one. The JLP persists with these candidates with a contemptuous indifference to what the public may think about them.
There is an association by the party with unsavory elements of doubtful character that has been downplayed by the media, but it is not lost on the public. The incidents surrounding the last JLP conference in 2006, in which persons were murdered in Retirement, St. James and Red Hills Road, St. Andrew, and the fingers pointed in the direction of elements not unconnected to the JLP, are cases in point. When one puts on top of all of that the Tivoli elements with obvious JLP connections that operate without due recognition of the rule of law, one has a political movement that will not be easily trusted. The JLP has not done enough to distance itself from a tinge of criminal elements that asserts itself from time to time. The Jamaica Labour Party has to deal with this if it is to effectively woo voters.
The second thing which has inhibited the JLP in the eyes of voters, is what recently appointed candidate for the PNP in North East St Ann and a former member of JLP affiliate G2K, Lisa Hanna, has most perceptively called its too narrow base of influence. In a radio interview on the Breakfast Club, Hanna opined that the PNP had a wider base of influence than the JLP. There is a cut and thrust within the PNP, she said, while the JLP is controlled by a small clique (my words).
In the last 12 months or so, the JLP has allowed itself almost to become the “rented canine” of the single business mogul. It has become the mouthpiece, spreading the bile and dancing to the beat of his drum. It has spent his largesse and fought his battles for him. And when one of its own dared to step out of line in the Hallowed Halls of the Parliament and vented criticism (properly founded) of that business mogul, the party leadership firmly reprimanded the young MP. This has not been lost on the public. The JLP is at risk of limiting its popularity to the mogul’s popularity. It is an enormous risk to take with Bustamante’s party.
Gambled wrongly
The third flaw that has bedeviled the Labour Party and has showed itself in opinion polls, is that the party has gambled wrongly in its opposition to a number of projects and programmes from which the country in general, and particular communities have be,nefited immensely. The JLP gambled against CWC 2007 and therefore could claim none of the credit from the enormous PR value (put it no greater than that) of the opening ceremony at Greenfield Stadium. It has found itself on the wrong side of any credit to be given for the benefits to the South Coast of the Sandals Whitehouse Hotel. It has gambled against the Portmore toll road, which is used without complaint by 90 per cent of the people of Portmore. The JLP has gambled against the PetroCaribe arrangements, which have proven remarkably beneficial to Jamaica’s interest.
If a political party keeps taking minority positions, it will end up in the minority. Worst than that, the JLP has created a political nightmare for itself; like elements in the media, it is developing a reputation of being opposed to everything progressive and in the interest of Jamaica’s national development. Controversy may generate interest, but they do not necessarily win over the electorate.
Of course, the fact that the JLP is behind in the polls is not entirely its fault. Like many others, it may have underestimated the Portia factor, which has moved beyond charismatic to the mesmeric.
The Observer has rubbished the suggestion that it had a political motive in not publishing the Stone Polls. It has claimed that it has not published the polls because the findings were leaked. This is not a credible position by the Observer because a poll usually includes a survey of a number of findings. If one of the findings of a given poll is leaked, it does not compromise or betray the remaining findings. The remainder of the poll results still has a lot of news value.
At any rate, the suggestion of a leak is an excuse invented after the fact. The self-justifying protests by the Observer seen in articles, columns, and editorials, have failed to address the deficit in its credibility.
The controversy aside, the poll findings (published and unpublished) do raise questions about the JLP. Why should the JLP be behind in the polls on the eve of the 2007 General Elections after 18 years of the PNP in government, when the governing party is seeking its fifth term in office?
The lag in the polls by the JLP appears to show that the party is once again about to squander its opportunity. The arguments about the Seaga factor used for the previous electoral defeats can no longer be advanced. Mr. Seaga has been retired and with him the excuse that he condemned his party to consecutive electoral defeats.
Bruce Golding, if not uniting the party, has managed by his stewardship as party leader to keep the JLP internal squabbles (such as there may be) out of the public domain. The vaunted JLP disunity is no longer a factor to be used to explain the disaffection with the JLP among voters.
Of course, it is possible that the pollsters could be proven wrong on election day, and the JLP ekes out a spectacular victory. “So man no dead n,o call him duppy.”
However, the scientism of political polling is a snapshot of the current position and the most optimistic interpretation of the JLP’s position in the polls in that it is stable. The JLP has neither improved nor deteriorated in the polls in the last 12 months.
Even though the “time for a change” theme has resonated with a wide cross-section of the electorate, the JLP has remained at 25 per cent of the popular vote in the last 12 months. Despite a full year of campaign and, more importantly, despite the expenditure of $120 million on political advertisements and rallies in 12 months, its position in the opinion polls has not changed.
What, therefore, are would-be voters seeing about the JLP that the JLP does not acknowledge in itself? The first is its incapacity to take on board the criticism of others or to respond by altering things that offend public sensibilities and sensitivity. This has been a weakness over the years. Every electoral loss from 1972 to 2002 has been accounted for by the JLP by suggesting that the voters have failed to make the right choice.
Allegations
The JLP has never taken on board the fact that rejection by the voters means that it needs to reform itself fundamentally. It has tinkered with this and that, but has never eaten humble pie and offered itself as a changed party. Coupled with that, the JLP responds to criticisms either by hunkering down and ignoring the criticism, or by abusing the critics and typecasting its critics as PNP sympathisers. Had the JLP been more sensitive to public sensibilities, there are at least three candidates that would have been dropped from the JLP slate of candidates. One of those candidates enjoys some seniority in the party, but is not trusted. Another has allegations against him, some of which border on the criminal. These allegations should at least be adequately responded to, if not cleared up, for a candidacy to be credible. Still, another is a throwback to the darkest days of Jamaican politics in the late 70’s and early 80’s - a loose cannon who is accountable to no one. The JLP persists with these candidates with a contemptuous indifference to what the public may think about them.
There is an association by the party with unsavory elements of doubtful character that has been downplayed by the media, but it is not lost on the public. The incidents surrounding the last JLP conference in 2006, in which persons were murdered in Retirement, St. James and Red Hills Road, St. Andrew, and the fingers pointed in the direction of elements not unconnected to the JLP, are cases in point. When one puts on top of all of that the Tivoli elements with obvious JLP connections that operate without due recognition of the rule of law, one has a political movement that will not be easily trusted. The JLP has not done enough to distance itself from a tinge of criminal elements that asserts itself from time to time. The Jamaica Labour Party has to deal with this if it is to effectively woo voters.
The second thing which has inhibited the JLP in the eyes of voters, is what recently appointed candidate for the PNP in North East St Ann and a former member of JLP affiliate G2K, Lisa Hanna, has most perceptively called its too narrow base of influence. In a radio interview on the Breakfast Club, Hanna opined that the PNP had a wider base of influence than the JLP. There is a cut and thrust within the PNP, she said, while the JLP is controlled by a small clique (my words).
In the last 12 months or so, the JLP has allowed itself almost to become the “rented canine” of the single business mogul. It has become the mouthpiece, spreading the bile and dancing to the beat of his drum. It has spent his largesse and fought his battles for him. And when one of its own dared to step out of line in the Hallowed Halls of the Parliament and vented criticism (properly founded) of that business mogul, the party leadership firmly reprimanded the young MP. This has not been lost on the public. The JLP is at risk of limiting its popularity to the mogul’s popularity. It is an enormous risk to take with Bustamante’s party.
Gambled wrongly
The third flaw that has bedeviled the Labour Party and has showed itself in opinion polls, is that the party has gambled wrongly in its opposition to a number of projects and programmes from which the country in general, and particular communities have be,nefited immensely. The JLP gambled against CWC 2007 and therefore could claim none of the credit from the enormous PR value (put it no greater than that) of the opening ceremony at Greenfield Stadium. It has found itself on the wrong side of any credit to be given for the benefits to the South Coast of the Sandals Whitehouse Hotel. It has gambled against the Portmore toll road, which is used without complaint by 90 per cent of the people of Portmore. The JLP has gambled against the PetroCaribe arrangements, which have proven remarkably beneficial to Jamaica’s interest.
If a political party keeps taking minority positions, it will end up in the minority. Worst than that, the JLP has created a political nightmare for itself; like elements in the media, it is developing a reputation of being opposed to everything progressive and in the interest of Jamaica’s national development. Controversy may generate interest, but they do not necessarily win over the electorate.
Of course, the fact that the JLP is behind in the polls is not entirely its fault. Like many others, it may have underestimated the Portia factor, which has moved beyond charismatic to the mesmeric.
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