Econ Analysis needed: Calling Prof. Johnny....STAT!!!

[Don1]

Sagicor expects business boom from PetroCaribe debt buy-back
BY KARENA BENNETT Business reporter bennettk@jamaicaobserver.com

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

BYLES... the Jamaican economy continues to perform well in respect of all indicators except GDP growth.

SAGICOR Group Jamaica is anticipating strong business growth for over the next four months based on Jamaica's positive economic indicators and the Government's buy-back of PetroCaribe debt.

Concurrently, the group posted net profit of $2.3 billion for its second quarter ending June 30, or 25.4 per cent higher than profits of the comparative quarter last year.

"The Jamaican economy continues to perform well in respect of all indicators except GDP growth, which remains low. Factors such as higher business confidence, improved ratings, and the buy-back of PetroCaribe debt at a discount will support continued positive economic trends," Group President and CEO Richard Byles stated in a statement to shareholders.

[Don1]

Phillips confirms PetroCaribe debt buy-back saves Jamaica US$300 million
Wednesday, August 12, 2015


ON Monday, Finance Minister Peter Phillips formally confirmed that three-quarters of the US$2 billion recently raised from the international capital markets, or US$1.5 billion, was used to purchase US$3.25 billion of debt owed by the PetroCaribe Development Fund to PDVSA Petróleo SA, Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

This represented a cost of roughly US$0.46 per US dollar of debt, with the price paid being calculated on the net present value of the debt outstanding at December 2014, or virtually all the debt then outstanding. The minister emphasised that the PetroCaribe agreement continues however.

As a consequence, the minister of finance noted, “Our debt service will be lower by just under US$300 million over the life of the transaction. This applies to the total debt service [that is, principal and interest] to be repaid in relation to the funds raised in the international capital market to purchase the PetroCaribe debt when compared with the total debt service on the full PetroCaribe debt.

[Islandman]

Richard Byles is one of the few prominent Jamaican businessmen who I generally listen to on economic matters. However I wish he had expanded on that statement.

Is he expecting GDP growth the follow soon? Can positive economic trends continue indefinitely without much impact on GDP growth?

[Assasin]

Double edge sword. We sat and let the debt for Petro Caribe grow, while the agreement was also for Jamaica to trade locally produced goods. Did we do that?? and live up to that part of the agreement? The answer is no.

Most of the agreement including the CBI, this etc. we fail to export anything in line with what was agreed.

We would better grow the economy now so we will be able to pay off the debt we extended to the back end of the agreement.

[Don1]

Double edge sword. We sat and let the debt for Petro Caribe grow, while the agreement was also for Jamaica to trade locally produced goods. Did we do that?? and live up to that part of the agreement? The answer is no.

Most of the agreement including the CBI, this etc. we fail to export anything in line with what was agreed.

We would better grow the economy now so we will be able to pay off the debt we extended to the back end of the agreement.

Thanks for this overview Prof

But Prof what is your analysis of the specific deal? Does this change our debt dynamics in any significant way? How so? What are the implications for our medium term prospects?

And Prof....do you support this deal or not?

[Don1]

Richard Byles is one of the few prominent Jamaican businessmen who I generally listen to on economic matters. However I wish he had expanded on that statement.

Is he expecting GDP growth the follow soon? Can positive economic trends continue indefinitely without much impact on GDP growth?

Rapid & sustainable GDP growth is gonna require gobs of foreign capital.

That won't occur until the Termites and Jamaicans generally....

* Reduce our financial risk profile in the markets by lowering the Debt/GDP ratio

* Make the civil service practices & regulations more efficient,

* Lower energy costs (outside of the decreased oil prices most nations benefit from)

* Upskill the labor force for higher value chain production,

* Reduce infrastructural bottlenecks,

* Be freed of IMF restrictions on Govt spending to aid reflating the economy

* Reduce crime to the point where locals and foreigners perceive a "safe" environment for work & play

In other words rapid growth is impossible in the short run under a demand-compression/debt-reduction IMF program...but in the medium term it's possible IF the world economy doesn't flop in that timeframe .... resulting in JA experiencing exogenous shocks

Over to you Prof

[Karl]

Rapid & sustainable GDP growth is gonna require gobs of foreign capital.

That won't occur until the Termites and Jamaicans generally....

* Reduce our financial risk profile in the markets by lowering the Debt/GDP ratio

* Make the civil service practices & regulations more efficient,

* Lower energy costs (outside of the decreased oil prices most nations benefit from)
* Upskill the labor force for higher value chain production,

* Reduce infrastructural bottlenecks,

* Be freed of IMF restrictions on Govt spending to aid reflating the economy

* Reduce crime to the point where locals and foreigners perceive a "safe" environment for work & play

In other words rapid growth is impossible in the short run...but in the medium term it's possible IF the world economy doesn't flop in that timeframe .... resulting in JA experiencing exogenous shocks

Over to you Prof

How yuh suh suh-mart sum-time?
...there is "the how" to achieve the actions/results you suggest???
We have a history of identifying the problems and even often putting forward great (theory on) solutions...but execution ba-bah has so often been our bugbear!

[Don1]

How yuh suh suh-mart sum-time?
...there is "the how" to achieve the actions you suggest. We have a history of identifying the problems and even often putting forward great theory on solutions...but execution ba-bah has so often been our bugbear!

Elda..yuh know anyone whe smart all di time?

[Islandman]

What number would you use as a baseline for rapid growth? Upwards of 5% GDP?

The criteria you have listed for rapid growth makes sense but are unlikely to happen without SOME growth first. With some decent public and private sector leadership and a little luck (ie no major negative externalities) shouldn't we be able to achieve at least 4% GDP in the short term?

[Don1]

What number would you use as a baseline for rapid growth? Upwards of 5% GDP?

The criteria you have listed for rapid growth makes sense but are unlikely to happen without SOME growth first. With some decent public and private sector leadership and a little luck (ie no major negative externalities) shouldn't we be able to achieve at least 4% GDP in the short term?

5% for JA would be more than BRILLIANT

For me though the key is not really a specific number...it's what's underneath:

* Can JA sustain the growth number 3-6% over a long period

* Is the growth driven by 21st century industries and not just tourism and the other "old" sectors?

* At the time we may be growing acceptably...are we investing massively in the right areas (e.g. early childhood education & STEM)... or are we frittering away gains by focusing on Babylon trinkets and high life nonsense?

Those types of issues can translate mere "growth"...to actual "human development" which is a far more important metric imo

The devil is always in the details...nuh choo??

[Islandman]

Yep, always.

Unfortunately focus and delayed gratification are not our areas of strength, generally speaking.

[Don1]

Yep, always.

Unfortunately focus and delayed gratification are not our areas of strength, generally speaking.

Absolutely.....Dat mi ah try show di JFF an' dem foolfool SnowBall supporta dem

[Muadib]

5% Growth for consecutive years ?

Eddie was indeed BRILLIANT !

[Don1]

5% Growth for consecutive years ?

Eddie was indeed BRILLIANT !

Nope...He was Vampiya Reagan and his right wing cohort's Favorite Likkle Pet. Babylon Showa dat corrupt likkle varmint wid nuff money...all Eli Tisona "winter veggies" money involve

Afta all ...Babylon apprecilove to di max ..di key Tivarli/Showa role in dem JA "regime change" operations

Blood Money handled by Vampiyas

[Muadib]

And yet his economic growth performance cannot be achieved since...