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Boiling Frogs Chronicles CCXV111 
Monumental Shifts in the Global Power Structure are fast approaching
In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP. We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050. But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.
The global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become
the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.
India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms3. We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.
Monumental Shifts in the Global Power Structure are fast approaching
In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP. We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050. But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.
The global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become
the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.
India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms3. We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.
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