Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s

[Mosiah]

Regarding the big drop in crime experienced by many US cities, starting around 1990, may I encourage you to read this paper. It is written in academic fashion, not by a Giuliani basher or a conservative think-tank. It is lengthy, but I think it will answer all of your questions, doubts, misconceptions regarding the crime drop phenomenon.

There is also a table comparing the decline in homicide for various American cities. Bear in mind, these are homicide figures, not for other crimes such as robbery, stabbings that don’t result in death, rapes and jay-walking!

We could learn a thing or two about our own condition in Jamaica, what could work and what probably won’t when it comes to crime fighting.

The link is: http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...yCrime2004.pdf

Enjoy!

[Sir X]

Everybady a investigative journalist pan di site ,well almost some just come wid dem own facts..lol

[Islandman]

I will take a look when I have some time, but I am sure you realise that there are MANY conflicting theories on this phenomenon. Nobody really knows for sure what were the critical success factors. The data set is quite small and the analysis is still undergoing peer review.

For example Steve Levitt, the publisher of that paper and co-author of the book Freakonomics, had some serious errors in his calculations on which his abortion theory is based and he has admitted as much.

http://www.economist.com/node/5246700

[Islandman]

LOL.

[Karl]

We could learn a thing or two about our own condition in Jamaica, what could work and what probably won’t when it comes to crime fighting.

Now that is a smart way to say, nothing!

We could (may not) learn a thing or two about our own condition in Jamaica, what could (may not) work and what probably won’t (probable may) when it comes to crime fighting.

...wonder why you never said: We would learn a thing or two about our own condition in Jamaica, what would work and what won’t when it comes to crime fighting.

[Mosiah]

There are many contributions re Giuliani's influence on crime. The vast majority blast him for claiming the credit. There could be several reasons for this, one being the fact that Giuliani is such a polarizing figure. The other reason could be, he doesn't deserve the praise!

I have since realised that Dinkins didn't jump to claim something that was pretty much a surprise to criminologists and maybe himself. But, if anything, he deserved the lion's share because it would appear that the increase in policing is widely accepted as being one of the main factors.

[Mosiah]

Good observation, Karl!

Once you read the paper you'll realise that the things you might expect to work, probably won't, while other things you never expected to work, did! (Are you as confused as I am right now?)

There is no silver bullet. Apart from policing. After all, in Jamaica's case, policing did help us get rid of Dudus, which resulted in a crime drop every year since!

No need to rationalize!
...trus mi I sometimes use that 'nice way of saying nothing'!

- The take on drop in crime by those who claim crime has, I find hard to accept. Granted they present 'figures' to support their claims...the problem is accepting the accuracy of those figures!

[Islandman]

I will be the first to say that he has got more credit than he probably deserved, specifically regarding the drastic reduction in the crime rates. I think his leadership played a part but it seems logical to conclude that crime in NYC would have gone down regardless, though maybe not as drastically. I will also be the first to say that Dinkins has not got the credit he deserved.

However when the claim is made that Giulianis tenure contributed nothing or very little to the transformation in overall quality of life for the MAJORITY of NYC residents, including its black residents when taken as a whole, that is what I do not accept. I have never heard of a chief executive who leads for as long as a decade who does not deserve credit for any of the successes during that tenure, only for the failures. It makes no sense.

[Islandman]

None of that means that he is not a racist or an overall pathetic person BTW

[Sir X]

Policing as in community policing,which would require a whole different psychological/social approach than the garrisonization/militarization we have practiced since independence.

[Mosiah]

If Giuliani did nothing but keep whatever that was working in place, he would deserve credit for that.

But for me, his crimes against my people far outweigh whatever good he contributed to New York. Others will disagree with me, but that's fine.

The turning point, when Giuliani became enemy no. 1 for me, was when he justified the shooting in the back of an unarmed teen. Combine that with the other police killings that he celebrated and there is no way someone like Giuliani could get an iota of praise from me.

When it comes to my people, I have a simple rule - if you don't like us, I'm not going to like you.

[Mosiah]

True dat!

[Islandman]

I can accept that. I don't particularly like him either but while we are entitled to our own opinions we are not entitled to our own facts.

I am quite sure for example that I would have hated Henry Ford. He was a racist, and anti-Semite and Hitler said he was an inspiration. However if someone says Ford had little to do with producing automobiles affordable for the ordinary person , including many of the people he hated, I would still have to say they were being foolish.

[Mosiah]

I can accept that. I don't particularly like him either but while we are entitled to our own opinions we are not entitled to our own facts.

I am quite sure for example that I would have hated Henry Ford. He was a racist, and anti-Semite and Hitler said he was an inspiration. However if someone says Ford had little to do with producing automobiles affordable for the ordinary person , including many of the people he hated, I would still have to say they were being foolish.

Of course!

I wouldn't go out of my way to say what good came from Giuliani. Who reminds others that Hitler gave the world it's first highway system (the autobahn) and that it was Hitler's war efforts that produced the Volkswagen and jet propulsion?

Alright then!

[Islandman]

OK, point taken.