RBSC

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

IMF analysis of the JDX & the economy by Dr Alleyne et al

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • IMF analysis of the JDX & the economy by Dr Alleyne et al

    .... Sass please get up to speed with this type of logical & data-driven analysis. Please also take this in good faith...

    I single you out out not because of "bad-mind" but because there is some glimmer of reasonableness about your arguments .
    As opposed to rabid, mindless tribalists like Ben & Lazie you seem to be not so inclined....

    wooooiiiee mi pons!!!!!

    Full Hundred

    SYNOPSIS

    Despite its achievements, JDX arguably did not directly address the debt overhang problem. The stock of debt and its structure continue to pose risks for fiscal sustainability and policy slippages could put Jamaica right where it started before the JDX. Jamaica’s debt outlook remains vulnerable to a wide range of issues including fiscal and structural, as well as to the external factors (such as the path of the global recovery).18 JDX did not trigger any meaningful fiscal consolidation beyond the reduction of the interest bill.

    Instead, the sense of additional fiscal space created by lower interest bill gave way for more pressures on the public wage front, building permanent pressures into the fiscal outlook and weakening the overall/net impact of the exchange in the medium term.

    Another critical aspect that may have gotten worse around the timing of JDX (having been exacerbated by the global crisis and its implications on the domestic economy) that could jeopardize its achievement and debt sustainability in general is the contingent liabilities.19

    All in all, there is an urgent need to implement policies that would help restore debt sustainability and investor confidence, as well as safeguard the stability of the financial sector.

    A multi-year credible fiscal adjustment framework would be required to put the debt ratio on a downward trajectory. In contrast to consolidation attempts in the past, this effort would have to be underpinned by efforts that would aim to substantially strengthen expenditure management and expand the scope of public liability management to include public entities, which have in the past had a significant drain on public resources, mostly taking place off budget.

    Jamaica’s debt overhang is likely to be a key factor behind the weak economic growth and financial market volatility and until/unless addressed would remain a drag on economic progress for years to come.
    TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

    Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

    D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

  • #2
    what is this all about???? Do you read the recent reviews????

    Do you see the importance of meeting tax targets and how bad we have fallen off?

    Do you see the importance IMF place in having confidence in the economy for business, growth in business and do you see how many quarters we have had of no growth, more debt(that you talk so much about), constant devaluation, rise in prices, rise in crime, rise in taxes and you taking something from about 2011 and posting as if it is recent????


    Economics mi a deal with, not theory and wishful thinking. As mi say the next 6 months going to be HELL economically.
    • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

    Comment


    • #3
      Let me make this clear, I am not debating the fact that many of the structural adjustment and policies the IMF is asking us to do should have been done 20 years ago. Our civil servants in 1988 was 70 thousand and now it is 105 thousand and imagine Air Jamaica, Bauxite, telephone company JPS and others are not in it now. Some of the polices that are been passed as it related to monetary policies should have been and even when some passed it is not been followed.

      The fact is as the topic started the devaluation in the dollar and high taxes is affecting business and business confidence. Here a group of people who wanted no more taxes(including so many on the forum who don't even talk about it any more) and the current government badly miss their 16.9 billion dollar tax target by a half and going back to people for more sacrifice.

      Businesses are closing and saying it is Tax, Crime, devaluation is the main reason. Not just one but a good amount. Some people are hanging and that is the reality. Had the government not miss the tax target there would be no need for anymore taxes. The best confidence you can give Jamaican businesses is stability and sorry to tell you, this is not happening currently.

      You going back to 2011 and talking bout JDX doesn't help when we have a new agreement and a second debt exchange. Again I say the next 6 months going to be very ruff for Jamaican businesses who are hanging in an economy that the IMF and the government admit is shrinking.
      Last edited by Assasin; January 5, 2014, 03:26 PM.
      • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

      Comment


      • #4
        =Assasin;461247]what is this all about???? Do you read the recent reviews????
        As I told you it's an example of logical, data-driven analysis... an approach I recommend to you as you're a reasonable man. Also the economic picture in 2010 when this piece was written has lessons for today as the situations are congruent

        Do you see the importance of meeting tax targets and how bad we have fallen off?
        Tax compliance is a huge issue in Jamaica.... especially so in a recessionary environment...what's new here???

        Do you see the importance IMF place in having confidence in the economy for business, growth in business and do you see how many quarters we have had of no growth, more debt(that you talk so much about), constant devaluation, rise in prices, rise in crime, rise in taxes and you taking something from about 2011 and posting as if it is recent????
        From all reports the IMF is happy with the GOJ program implementation... so far. We see that via passing grades in the quarterly tests. Do you have different reports?

        Of course the people experiencing the "Bitter Medicine" are unhappy. Did you expect anything less??


        Economics mi a deal with, not theory and wishful thinking. As mi say the next 6 months going to be HELL economically
        I believe they call that HELL "Bittah Medicine".

        For a growth agenda in 12-36 months Jamaica needs investments, intensified financial & bureaucratic reforms, energy cost reduction and crime control... so the GOJ has its work cut out to enable those items

        On the investment side the China Harbor logistics hub, KCT divestment & upgrade, Caymanas logistics park, EWI/JPS power investments must be fast-tracked as strategic assets... and SME development incentivized simultaneously along with education reform towards an applications technology/STEM focus
        Last edited by Don1; January 5, 2014, 04:17 PM.
        TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

        Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

        D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

        Comment


        • #5
          "I believe they call that HELL "Bittah Medicine".

          This a more than Bitter Medicine. A few months ago Dr. Peter said the worst had gone. He also said "No more taxes" which some gladly repeated. This new taxes is all because of missing the target, they have to go back to IMF and recommend NEW taxes in the early part of this year.
          • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

          Comment


          • #6
            I don't recall seeing such statements but.....Politician mout mek fi seh anyting...suh mi nuh watch dat ar get excited bout dem public mutterings one way ar anedda
            TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

            Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

            D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

            Comment

            Working...
            X