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After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

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  • After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

    Ken Chaplin
    Tuesday, May 08, 2007


    The highlight of the 2007-2008 budget debate was the recognition by prime minister Portia Simpson Miller and opposition leader Bruce Golding of the urgent need to create jobs through economic growth.</B>
    Ken Chaplin
    This has got to be far more than the meagre 2.5 per cent that the finance minister Omar Davies has been speaking about. For 18 years of this government its economists have been saying that the country is "poised" for big growth. Today the country is still "poised".
    Golding was much more focused on the creation of jobs than Simpson Miller. More on this later.
    The speeches of both Simpson Miller and Golding were first-class. Golding was analytical, dealing with the most pressing need of the country which is employment. It was one of the best budget presentations I have heard by an Opposition leader for many years. Simpson Miller was far more confident than last year and her delivery greatly improved. However, her speech was far too long.
    After three hours I turned off my television but later read the speech from cover to cover as I did Golding's only because I had to. The prime minister should understand that when she covers subjects not under her portfolio in such detail she has to be careful that she does not pre-empt her ministers. Also the press is not likely to report much of the sectoral debate as the news would have already been "stale".
    There are nearly one million Jamaicans who are unemployed or not gainfully employed. This is creating serious problems across the country, creating an intolerable crime rate, poverty and social disorder.
    Many people cannot afford to pay their mortgages or rent, send their children to school, and even buy food regularly. The greater the number of people employed, the faster the growth rate with people paying more taxes and greater the revenue inflows. Golding put it this way: "The objective of our people must be jobs. Two-thirds of the total revenue collected is derived from wages and consumption expenditure. So if we create more jobs, you put more money in people's pockets and enable more people to consume. You collect more revenue and then you will be able to pay down the debt and create jobs." Creating more small businesses can also ease to some extent the unemployment situation. As Simpson Miller announced, $1 billion was taken from the National Insurance Fund last year to onlend to Jamaicans for new micro-business or to expand existing business.
    An end to corruption in government would also encourage local and overseas investment.
    When I visit the inner-city communities or the countryside and see the large number of young people sitting at the street corners during school or working hours, it leaves me worried. The matter of jobs also did not escape Simpson Miller's attention, but she should have given more attention to the problem. The creation of more jobs requires more training of skilled workers. HEART-NTA is carrying out comprehensive training programmes, and close to 80,000 young people will be trained this year. The question is where they will find employment. The work of the economy is to provide jobs, but the country is far behind.
    The agency does not train for the overseas market, but recently a few graduates have found jobs in other countries.Golding proposed to abolish tuition fees at secondary schools if elected to office which, according to the finance minister, would cost $2 billion. The Opposition also proposed to abolish all hospital fees. The two proposals are realisable, but Golding's proposal to establish a Constituency Development Fund financed by 2.5 per cent of the budget requires closer examination.
    Davies seemed to have panicked by Golding's proposals but he remained quiet after Simpson Miller announced that effective May 28, 2007 all fees for children and minors under 18 years old in government hospitals and health facilities will be abolished. This will not be applicable at the University Hospital of the West Indies. There was no money for this in the budget and it appears that the step was taken without Davies' approval. It seems as if Simpson Miller suddenly came up with the proposal after hearing Golding's proposal to abolish hospital fees. Looking at Davies's face in Parliament he seemed surprised and not happy with the move by Simpson Miller.
    While Simpson Miller discussed the matter of steps being taken to improve the justice system, she has failed to deal adequately with police abuses which is hardly better today than it was in the colonial days. She runs the risk of many poor young Jamaicans in the inner city forming an alliance against her re-election. There can be no doubt that there is more confidence in the economy today than over the past five years. Infrastructure development is moving ahead as Simpson Miller said.
    The main problem in this country, apart from water and crime, is the condition of parochial and farm roads. The maintenance of these roads is minimal and in some instances they are being repaired on a partisan basis. I expected the prime minister to declare that road repairs must be carried out on a non-partisan basis and that the programme would be expanded.
    The bad condition of most of these roads is a punishment to motorists and pedestrians. The completion of the construction of the $3.4 billion sewerage project in St Catherine which Simpson Miller said would serve 600,000 residential and commercial customers in the Kingston Metropolitan Area is eagerly awaited.
    The loan ceiling for NHT contributors will be raised from $3 million to $3.5 million and in the case of joint application from $6 million to $7 million. This comes back to the first point raised in this column - the need for employment so that people will be able to maintain their payments and will not fall into arrears and lose their homes. I gather that many people in government schemes, especially in PNP garrisons, are heavily in arrears. The government has a poor record in economic growth. I hope that it will improve.
    "Jamaica's future reflects its past, having attained only one per cent annual growth over 30 years whilst neighbours have grown at five per cent." (Article)

  • #2
    Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

    I recall Ralston Hyman writing an article, "Economy poised for take off!" The IJJ read the article and interviewed him about it. Mutty reminded him that every year that Manley was PM, his Christmas messages included the line, "We're at the threshold of a new beginning," yet we were worst off than we were the previous year.

    After being grilled, Hyman got upset stating that the only person that has read more about economics that him is Alan Greenspan. I guess now he is going to say Ken has no idea what he is talking about.
    "Jamaica's future reflects its past, having attained only one per cent annual growth over 30 years whilst neighbours have grown at five per cent." (Article)

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

      Quote "There are nearly one million Jamaicans who are unemployed or not gainfully employed. This is creating serious problems across the country, creating an intolerable crime rate, poverty and social disorder"

      Karl it seems like Ken a work fi Golding these days.
      • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

        Is there no-one in the PNP that sees this ?

        I mean there must be one bright spark in there.. or is it something else preventing them from speaking up ?

        The Cult ting a kill di PNP and poor Karl still playing him violin...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

          "Is there no-one in the PNP that sees this ?"

          Come now ... you think dem care? As long as PNP in power, dem willing fi bite dem bottom lip.
          "Jamaica's future reflects its past, having attained only one per cent annual growth over 30 years whilst neighbours have grown at five per cent." (Article)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

            Originally posted by Assasin View Post
            Quote "There are nearly one million Jamaicans who are unemployed or not gainfully employed. This is creating serious problems across the country, creating an intolerable crime rate, poverty and social disorder"

            Karl it seems like Ken a work fi Golding these days.
            Specific to your quote - How many persons live on the island? How many are considered of in employment age bracket/within the bracket considered "work-force"?


            July 2005

            Total Population: 2,657,300

            Labour Force - 1,197,500

            Employed Labour Force - 1,063,300

            Unemployed Labour Force - 146,100

            Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica
            Well we should expect changes in number since - up or down? ...but, Ken's 1,000,000 unemployed or not gainfully employed appears....??????
            "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

              You must be realistic even when defending the indefensible. You begin to sound like the Tivoli apologists. You should know that anyone no longer looking work is no longer counted as being unemployed. The actual figures for Jamaica is probably even greater than the 1,000,000 if everyone who wanted work other than selling wrigley's was counted.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                He maybe right.

                Too many are under employed.

                As I said before everybody with sciences end up turning bank clerk or hotel worker.
                • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                  Originally posted by Rudi View Post
                  You must be realistic even when defending the indefensible. You begin to sound like the Tivoli apologists. You should know that anyone no longer looking work is no longer counted as being unemployed. The actual figures for Jamaica is probably even greater than the 1,000,000 if everyone who wanted work other than selling wrigley's was counted.
                  mmmm?

                  A population of 2+ million and you have 1+ million unemployed or under-employed?

                  It just appears to me that that is IMPOSSIBLE! There is no way, even if the country had no one or entity as 'governing'/government such unemployment or under-employment could exist...or could be created?

                  IMPOSSIBLE!

                  Perhaps, you do not see a difference with saying there are too many unemployed or under-employed? ...or, putting up accurate figures? In your warpped mind it suits your purpose to make ridiculous claims of unemployment and or under-employment!

                  BTW - Are you actively pratising as a politician? Just asking -- as politicians too often put out half-truths which as you know are damn lies!

                  Ken, I know as a good person, so I forgive him for being somewhat careless with his facts.
                  "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                    Regardless of the real numbers Karl, 72% don't have ONE SUBJECT! Many people who do have jobs would never have one if those passes were better, but we have had to lower the bar till it a touch grung!

                    Wait till the CSME start!


                    BLACK LIVES MATTER

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                      I agree that 1 million seems out of the question, but dont try to use Statin's number as proof.

                      The quoted 146K unemployed is the joke of this century and last!

                      No way the figure is less than 400K!!!!

                      If the workforce is approx 50% of the popn, ie 1.4m, then at least 30% of that number is unemployed.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                        Originally posted by Willi View Post
                        I agree that 1 million seems out of the question, but dont try to use Statin's number as proof.

                        The quoted 146K unemployed is the joke of this century and last!

                        No way the figure is less than 400K!!!!

                        If the workforce is approx 50&#37; of the popn, ie 1.4m, then at least 30% of that number is unemployed.
                        I would wonder about even your 400K but, not for one moment disagreeing that the 'figures' are poor. ...just keep wondering why to make our argument we have play with the truth?

                        I am sure the majority is convinced that 'tings bad'.
                        "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                          Agreed there.

                          However, I do come back to my same cause celebre.

                          The officials must be held to a far higher standard than mere mortals like columnists and pundits.

                          Finally, 400K seems like a lowball figure. Check out how many idle young people are on the street corners all over the island. The figure could be over half a million easily.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                            Originally posted by Karl View Post
                            I would wonder about even your 400K but, not for one moment disagreeing that the 'figures' are poor. ...just keep wondering why to make our argument we have play with the truth?

                            I am sure the majority is convinced that 'tings bad'.
                            Run through this excercise:

                            For the past 18 years

                            Find out the number of kids that enter High School every year

                            Find out the number of High School Students leaving high school each year.

                            Calculate what percentage enter a system of Higher Education

                            Calculate what percentage are able to find jobs.

                            Categorize the types of jobs available.

                            Now based on the pool you start off with guesstimate how many are

                            1. Employed
                            2. Meaningfully Employed

                            Would you guess a minority or majority of students that enter high school fall into category 1 and 2 ?

                            I think some of you don't fully comprehend the 'genocide' that has occurred after 2 decades and 1 Trillion Dollars..

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: After 18 years Jamaica still 'poised' for growth

                              Genocide is the wrong word.

                              It is not life that is being eliminated...it is free consciousness!

                              That is the 3-card trick.

                              Sort of like a neutron bomb...eliminate the people, but preserve the fixed assets (shell).

                              Comment

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