Africas future - hope or hopeless?

[Islandman]

By Global Public Square staff - CNN.com

Africa’s population challenge

It's rare enough for a U.S. president to visit Africa. This week, two of them are there – President Obama, of course, but also his predecessor, George W. Bush. The two visits are unrelated, but the focus is common: how to engage with the world's fastest growing continent.

Africa was for many decades the "dark continent," or the "hopeless continent," as The Economist once put it. More recently it has become the Great Hope of the business world. The Economist updated its take to "Africa Rising." The World Bank recently said Africa could be on the verge of a take-off the like of China's 30 years ago.

Africa's recent growth has been impressive and important. But let's step back and get some perspective before we break out the champagne.

First, the case for optimism: growth.

As populations stagnate or even decline in Europe, Japan, and China ... Africa's population of one billion is expected to more than double by 2050. More people, means more consumption, more production, more growth.
African economies grew on average around 6 percent last year: that's three times the pace of America's growth, and faster than many Asian countries. A new world is opening up to Africans as they get used to credit cards and mobile phones. And they are also becoming economically more free and more democratic.

But there are hurdles ahead.

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn....ge/?hpt=hp_bn2

[Historian]

Africa vs. China

The World Bank recently said Africa could be on the verge of a take-off the like of China's 30 years ago.

But there are hurdles ahead.

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn....ge/?hpt=hp_bn2

The obvious difference, of course, is that China is a country (with one government) while Africa is a continent comprising large and diverse countries, people, languages, cultures and governments.

(By the way, Historian is Jamaican, not African.)

But let’s look at the hurdles, as stated by the blog:

But there are hurdles ahead.
The World Economic Forum's new Africa Competitiveness Report shows that of the 20 least competitive economies in the world, 14 are African. What this means is that African economies are blighted by low productivity. They may be growing for now, and from a very low base, but they are over-dependent on commodities.

More than half of the continent's total exports are minerals, a focus which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand. More than two-thirds of Africa's labor force is employed in agriculture, much of it subsistence agriculture. On the other hand, manufacturing (the hallmark of a developed economy) has essentially remained stagnant: its share of total GDP is the same as what it used to be in the 1970s!

The African Economic Outlook, published by the African Development Bank and others, builds on some of these points. It turns out that if the world's rich countries experience a 1 percent drop in growth that translates into a 10 percent drop for Africa's export earnings.

In most countries, economic and political reforms have stalled. Corruption remains staggeringly high. And the private sector remains much too tied to government favors.

Look at Africa's biggest economy. As attention centers on the great Nelson Mandela's life and legacy, South Africa itself is languishing. Annual growth fell to less than 1 percent in the latest quarter; youth unemployment hovers around 50 percent – a recipe for future crises.

What to make of all these facts and reports? South Africa's case is a warning for the rest of the continent. African countries have immense potential, but they need a continued commitment to bold reforms, transparency, free markets, and trade.

Perhaps the most crucial thing to watch is how Africa deals with its greatest resource: not oil, not minerals, but people. Africa’s share of the world's population will rise from one-seventh to about one-fifth by the middle of this century. If Africans get the right access to education, healthcare, good governance, and jobs, Africa will be a powerhouse. If not, the population growth is a curse not a blessing.

This week's visits by Obama and Bush are important. But what African countries need is not so much external attention as internal reform.

Post by:
CNN's Jason Miks

[Islandman]

Yes there are many hurdles to overcome. One of the biggest threats which was not mentioned is of course WAR: civil war, ethnic wars, proxy wars, and so on.

What is clear is that Africa will make a lot more people wealthy in this century but as to how many of them will be Africans remains to be seen.

At least they are growing at a decent rate though, which is more than Jamaica can say for most of the last 20 years.

[Muadib]

There should be serious study done on Jamaica by the greatest minds... its economic non-performance is a modern day miracle !!

[Sir X]

Africa has 3 spheres which are at the center of its boom, South , East and West all have been doing positive growth in excess of 4 % except South Africa,which is odd , some economist have declared Nigeria GDP is bigger than S. Africa, that said they say S.Africa is the germany of Africa where all the industry to develop infrastructure and provide loans are located .

Mozambique to me is odd , it has growth that avergaes over 6 % for the past 20 years, yet it has one of the poorest population , proof that wealth is concentrated in the elitist , Mozambique caters to Brazilian and Portuguses migrants esp portugese , where the red carpet is opened for them to create industries or abuse them, depends how you look at it.

It is on the up.

[Islandman]

It truly is.

[Muadib]

Suh why yuh tink dem draw fi Echeverry !

<Minister Echeverry served as adviser to the African Development Process, led by South Africa’s Brenthurst Foundation and Konrad Adenauer of Germany.>

Dem nuh have phobia like some..

[Islandman]

it has growth that avergaes over 6 % for the past 20 years, yet it has one of the poorest population

It could also be that they are starting from a lower base even by sub Saharan African standards.

The Portuguese and the Belgian colonialists make their English and French counterparts look like gifts from the heavens by comparison. They were that bad. Might have been an inferiority complex on their part....don't know.

[Sir X]

Could be .

[World Fan]

We will be begging from Africans soon.

[World Fan]

Trade between Africa and China will surpass the trade between China and the US/EU - in our lifetime.

[Rudi]

Six of the ten fastest growing economies in the past few years are from Sub-Saharan Africa. Ben has a point, the Jamaican growth record should be studied.
some on here say the informal sector in Jamaica is seriously under reported and should therefore be brought into the tax net. What they don't seem to realize is that if the informal sector is under reported then so are Jamaica's growth numbers.

[Muadib]

Well.. we were a slave class out of Africa....

[Don1]

Trade between Africa and China will surpass the trade between China and the US/EU - in our lifetime.

That has already occurred... But I wish you a long life said speed

[World Fan]

"were"...It a mental thing now