Tweet
Can someone help with this one..when we forecast in Jamaica, do we include the cost of huricane in the forecast? Is the cost of hurricane included in the budget. I would think that hurrican/flooding cost are all probable so its useless to build a forecast without them...or we just exclude them and beg and borrow when they happen and also miss targets and blame it on the known...
We seem to have so much dependencies.......If we could only shave that import bill and have Jacans eat more of what they produce....so much better would we be
Phillips admits growth target challenging
Monday, April 22, 2013
Tweet
FINANCE Minister Dr Peter Phillips admitted Friday that meeting the one per cent growth target rate for fiscal 2013/14 will be a challenge for the Jamaica economy, which will depend on the state of the global economy
The (IMF) programme has us looking at a one per cent (growth) this year. The challenge for the country, and the programme, is conservative; taking into account the overall global economic conditions, in a sense, nobody can predict with certainty," Dr. Phillips told a press briefing at his ministry on Friday.
"I would hope that the financial analysts and journalists will bring a tinge of realism about this whole issue of economic forecasting to our domestic dialogue," he suggested.
The minister was clarifying issues raised by his opening budget presentation in the House of Representatives on Thursday, including the growth target.
He noted that both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank have revised their economic forecasts, including the prospects for the aluminium industry, all of which impact directly on Jamaica's capacities.
"So, in that context, and with that caveat, what we are seeking to do is to be able to benefit from the upside risks, in other words, to overshoot targets on the growth side. It is quite possible, again it depends on what is happening in the world economy," he explained.
He also listed natural disasters, like last year's Hurricane Sandy, as threats to the target, noting that after passing through Jamaica the hurricane intensified, creating more damage to the US landscape and economy, which also affected the Jamaican economy. However, he said that there was a ray of hope with a discernible revival in the aluminium market in Europe, but the effect will depend on Jamaica's energy solutions for the industry.
"So, there are these imponderables, these areas that you cannot predict. But, ultimately what we are seeking to do is to create the environment whereby we can induce greater levels of investor confidence, to undertake the major projects that will kick-start some of this growth here, and to ultimately set a platform by completing the programme of debt reduction, which will ultimately lead to us to having more robust capital budgets, which are critical to the growth and development agenda," he stated.
Phillips told Parliament, Thursday, that the Government agreed that economic growth was the only guarantee of an improved standard of living, and would provide the necessary platform for addressing the country's social problems. However, he said that it was important to dispel the notion that economic growth was separate from the economic reform programme.
"It is not possible for us to achieve sustained growth if most of our resources go simply to pay debt and we are unable to maintain an adequately financed capital investment programme," he argued.
"So the essential point is that, in order to reach that 'promised land' of sustained economic growth, we have to enter through the gates of fiscal consolidation, which will lead to low interest rates and, over time, generate more investments and more revenues," he stated
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz2RDU2wLsk
We seem to have so much dependencies.......If we could only shave that import bill and have Jacans eat more of what they produce....so much better would we be
Phillips admits growth target challenging
Monday, April 22, 2013
Tweet
FINANCE Minister Dr Peter Phillips admitted Friday that meeting the one per cent growth target rate for fiscal 2013/14 will be a challenge for the Jamaica economy, which will depend on the state of the global economy
The (IMF) programme has us looking at a one per cent (growth) this year. The challenge for the country, and the programme, is conservative; taking into account the overall global economic conditions, in a sense, nobody can predict with certainty," Dr. Phillips told a press briefing at his ministry on Friday.
"I would hope that the financial analysts and journalists will bring a tinge of realism about this whole issue of economic forecasting to our domestic dialogue," he suggested.
The minister was clarifying issues raised by his opening budget presentation in the House of Representatives on Thursday, including the growth target.
He noted that both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank have revised their economic forecasts, including the prospects for the aluminium industry, all of which impact directly on Jamaica's capacities.
"So, in that context, and with that caveat, what we are seeking to do is to be able to benefit from the upside risks, in other words, to overshoot targets on the growth side. It is quite possible, again it depends on what is happening in the world economy," he explained.
He also listed natural disasters, like last year's Hurricane Sandy, as threats to the target, noting that after passing through Jamaica the hurricane intensified, creating more damage to the US landscape and economy, which also affected the Jamaican economy. However, he said that there was a ray of hope with a discernible revival in the aluminium market in Europe, but the effect will depend on Jamaica's energy solutions for the industry.
"So, there are these imponderables, these areas that you cannot predict. But, ultimately what we are seeking to do is to create the environment whereby we can induce greater levels of investor confidence, to undertake the major projects that will kick-start some of this growth here, and to ultimately set a platform by completing the programme of debt reduction, which will ultimately lead to us to having more robust capital budgets, which are critical to the growth and development agenda," he stated.
Phillips told Parliament, Thursday, that the Government agreed that economic growth was the only guarantee of an improved standard of living, and would provide the necessary platform for addressing the country's social problems. However, he said that it was important to dispel the notion that economic growth was separate from the economic reform programme.
"It is not possible for us to achieve sustained growth if most of our resources go simply to pay debt and we are unable to maintain an adequately financed capital investment programme," he argued.
"So the essential point is that, in order to reach that 'promised land' of sustained economic growth, we have to enter through the gates of fiscal consolidation, which will lead to low interest rates and, over time, generate more investments and more revenues," he stated
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz2RDU2wLsk
Comment