How democratic can you get ?.....Chavez did this for 14 yrs

[Sir X]

Nicolás Maduro is Venezuela's vote for Chávismo

Hugo Chávez's economic policies were successful but a close vote means the new president cannot become complacent

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• • Mark Weisbrot
  • guardian.co.uk, Monday 15 April 2013 07.00 EDT
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'Nicolás Maduro defeated challenger Henrique Capriles, thus assuring continuity in Venezuela.' Photograph: Miguel Gutierrez/EPA

After a short but bitterly fought, insult-laden campaign, Chávista standard-bearer Nicolás Maduro defeated challenger Henrique Capriles, thus assuring continuity in Venezuela after the death of the former president, Hugo Chávez, last month. But the election was much closer than the polls predicted: a margin of just 1.6%, or about 275,000 votes.

Capriles is demanding an audit of 100% of all votes; Maduro has apparently agreed. But the audit is unlikely to change the outcome. Unlike in the United States, where in a close election we really don't know who won, the Venezuelan system is very secure. Since there are two records of every vote (machine and paper ballot), it is nearly impossible to rig the machines and stuff the ballot boxes to match. Jimmy Carter called Venezuela's electoral system "the best in the world."

Polling data published by Reuters at the end of the campaign showed a close correlation between support for Maduro and Venezuelans' contact with the misiones, or social programmes, established by Chávez, that provided everything from healthcare and subsidised food to college education. Capriles, who mostly attacked Maduro for not being Chávez, pledged to maintain and expand the misiones. But this was not sufficient to win over enough of the swing voters who, while numerous enough to determine the outcome, probably did not believe that a scion of Venezuela's wealthy elite who hailed from a rightwing party (Primero Justicia, or Justice First) would keep that promise.

Of course, it was not just the success of the misiones that won Chávismo another seven years of the presidency. There were major improvements in Venezuelans' living standards during the Chávez years. After the government got control over the national oil industry, poverty was reduced by half and extreme poverty by about 70%. Real income per person grew by about 2.5% annually from 2004 to 2012, and inequality fell sharply. Unemployment was 8% in 2012, as opposed to 14.5% when Chávez took office.

These numbers are not in dispute among economists or other experts, nor among international agencies such as the World Bank, IMF or UN. But they are rarely reported in the major western media.

In their ongoing efforts to delegitimise Venezuela's government, the punditry and press often portray the Chávistas as having an unfair advantage in these elections. But this election, like the presidential election in October, was conducted on about as level a playing field as any in the region. The Chávistas have the government, but the opposition has most of the wealth and income of the country, as well as the majority of the media. State TV has about a 6% share of the audience (and they actually aired Capriles campaign ads last week); and the opposition has a clear advantage in both print and radio. Compare that to Mexico's last two presidential elections, where the left-of-centre candidate had little chance against a rightwing media duopoly thatdetermined the outcome of the election (if it wasn't stolen altogether in 2006).

Most of the western press has been unsuccessfully forecasting imminent economic collapse in Venezuela for 14 years, and this theme has been prominent lately. The press, which relies almost completely on opposition sources, will be wrong again.

But the new government does face serious challenges, and the closeness of this election should be a wake-up call. It needs to fix the exchange rate system and bring down inflation, and resolve the problem of shortages – these three problems are closely related. Hopefully, it will resist the temptation to lower inflation and reduce imports by shrinking the economy – it is important to maintain aggregate demand, growth and employment, and the country very much needs more public investment in infrastructure. The economy has been growing for nearly three years now, after a downturn brought on by the world recession that ended in mid-2010; and until the last quarter of last year this accelerating growth was accompanied by falling inflation. It should be possible to return to this scenario with the right policies.

Maduro also pledged to bring down Venezuela's high violent crime rate, and some efforts have already begun. Governance and administration are the country's major weaknesses. It remains to be seen if the new government can meet these challenges.

[Sir X]

Hugo Chavez's political heir Nicolas Maduro named Venezuela's president-elect

By Catherine E. Shoichet, CNN
updated 8:38 PM EDT, Mon April 15, 2013



Maduro wins Venezuelan election




STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Nicolas Maduro says the election was fair and constitutional
• Election authorities proclaim him president-elect, despite calls for a recount
• The opposition candidate calls for Venezuelans to protest
• Both candidates call for peace, but appear to be bracing for a fight

(CNN) -- Election authorities proclaimed Hugo Chavez's handpicked successor Venezuela's president-elect Monday, despite his challenger's demand for a recount.
"It was a result that was truly fair, constitutional and popular," Nicolas Maduro said, criticizing his opponent's refusal to concede.
Maduro secured 50.8% of votes in Sunday's election, while opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski won 49.0%, Venezuela's National Electoral Council said Monday.
The South American country's top election official certified the results at a ceremony in Caracas, saying Venezuela's voting system had worked perfectly.
Maduro, who billed himself throughout the campaign as Chavez's political heir, told supporters Monday that the former president's son-in-law would be executive vice president during his six-year term.
Jorge Arreaza has been Venezuela's science and technology minister and is married to Chavez's daughter, Rosa Virginia.
Earlier Monday, Capriles called on his supporters to protest and slammed Maduro as an "illegitimate" leader.
"If both sides have said that they want to count vote for vote, what is the rush? What are they hiding? Why do we have to accelerate the process?" he said. "What they want is for the truth not to be known."
Many of the opposition candidate's backers took to the streets Monday night, banging pots and pans to protest the government's refusal to recount votes. Capriles called on them to head to local election offices Tuesday.
The head of Maduro's campaign accused Capriles of inciting violence.
"This man, Capriles, does not know how to lose," Jorge Rodriguez, the head of Maduro's campaign, told reporters Monday.
Capriles' repeated demands for a recount leftkey questions about Venezuela's future unanswered Monday: Will Maduro's supporters stick behind him? Will tension in the deeply divided country boil over after the tight race? And will world leaders recognize the results?
The presidents of Argentina, Bolivia and Cuba were among the leaders who offeredcongratulations to Maduro on Monday. But the head of a prominent regional body said he supported a recount. And a White House spokesman pushed for an audit of the results.
"The result as reported is extremely close," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters. "The opposition candidate and at least one member of the electoral council have called for an audit, which ... in our view, seems like an important and prudent step to take."
Organization of American States Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza offered the support of the regional body's election experts for a recount "in the context of deep division and political polarization."
Both Capriles and Maduro have urged supporters to remain peaceful but appeared to be bracing for an intense political fight.
Tension mounts after tight race
Police and National Guard troops stood by, armed with tear gas, as protesters gathered in one Caracas neighborhood Monday night, witness Alejandro Astorman said.
On state television, Maduro vowed to use an "iron fist" against any coup attempts and accused political opponents of trying to destabilize the country.
On Sunday, Maduro said he would have nothing to hide if votes were recounted. On Monday, he said officials had already ruled that the results showing his victory were clear.
"It is the majority," he said. "There is a majority that won, and there is a minority that we recognize and respect, even though many of them hate us."
Capriles stressed that Maduro must also recognize the political will of the millions of voters who supported the opposition.
"Here there is no majority," he said. "There are two halves."
Sunday's closely watched election comes at a time of political polarization and uncertainty for Venezuela. It was the second time in just over six months that voters in the South American country cast ballots in a presidential vote.
Chavez, who ruled Venezuela for 14 years, celebrated a triumphant re-election victory in October. After his death on March 5, authorities announced new elections to select his successor.
'I am not Chavez, but I am his son'
Maduro, 50, has been Venezuela's interim leader since Chavez's death. When he registered to run for the presidency last month, he told supporters, "I am not Chavez, but I am his son."
They weren't blood relations, but in one of his last public appearances, Chavez tapped Maduro as his replacement.
"My firm opinion, as clear as the full moon -- irrevocable, absolute, total -- is ... that you elect Nicolas Maduro as president," Chavez said in December, waving a copy of the Venezuelan Constitution as he spoke. "I ask this of you from my heart. He is one of the young leaders with the greatest ability to continue, if I cannot."
It was the first time Chavez had named a successor.
His comments dramatically changed the political landscape and became the basis for Maduro's push to ascend to the presidency after his mentor's death.
Throughout the campaign, Maduro pledged to continue Chavez's efforts to build "21st century socialism" and said his platform consisted of following the former president's plan for the country.
At rallies for Maduro, a recording of Chavez's voice belting out the national anthem boomed through loudspeakers.
At one campaign event, he told supporters that Chavez appeared to him in the form of a little bird to give him spiritual support.
And Maduro's official campaign theme song began with a militant drumbeat and Chavez's voice, endorsing his candidacy.
Campaigns bracing for a battle
Capriles, 40, said he was pushing a more moderate approach, promising to continue social programs and improve the country's economy.
The opposition candidate lost to Chavez in October's presidential vote, but he came within 10 percentage points of the longtime leader. It was a significant gap, but the closest any opposition candidate ever came to defeating Chavez during his rule.
More than 78% of the 18.9 million Venezuelans registered voted in Sunday's presidential election, Lucena said.
In Venezuela, elections officials said Sunday evening that the day had proceeded smoothly without major incidents.
Authorities detained 43 people for alleged electoral crimes, Maj. Gen. Wilmer Barrientos told reporters.
As polls were closing Sunday, Twitter accounts for Maduro and his party were apparently hacked with posts denouncing "electoral fraud." A group calling itself Lulz Security Peru claimed responsibility, while officials from Maduro's campaign criticized what they said were "dirty tactics." They blamed right-wing political opponents for the hacking.
CNN's Fernando del Rincon, Patricia Janiot and Paula Newton, and journalist Osmary Hernandez contributed to this report from Caracas. CNN's Rafael Romo, Marysabel Huston-Crespo and Claudia Dominguez contributed from Atlanta.

[Sir X]

Babette's Feast With the Refugees at PDVSA: The Real Importance of Maduro's Victory in Venezuela

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This weekend the legacy of Hugo Chávez has been raked over the coals one last time, but the same old stats on poverty, inflation, and crime miss the real story. Chávez's success is as much about how the poor feel about their place in society as it is about improvements in their material conditions. According to pollster Oscar Schemel, these days "it's not enough to present a discourse offering food and employment; people want dignity." Depictions of Chávez supporters as wacky, warm-blooded stooges overlook this factor, yet it underpins the remarkable longevity of Chavismo, most recently reflected in the victory of Nicolás Maduro.
Inside the Barrio, Outside Society

To really understand the impact of Chávez's election in 1999 we have to go back in time. The former missionary Charles Hardy spent eight years in the pre-Chávez barrios (shanty-towns), and his memoir Cowboy in Caracasprovides a striking account of what life was like for Venezuela's majority urban poor. It's a grim picture of everyday humiliations like throwing parcels of excrement down the hillside, mounting tension as water trucks fail to materialise, and shoot-to-kill repression of unrest. Within the barrios the state was an absence or a threat; within the state the barrios, entirely absent from official maps, didn't even exist.
Under Chávez the barrios were charted and formalised, the title deeds going to their inhabitants. While problems with basic services persist, they are reduced, and crucially there exists the will to tackle them. One lesser-known social programme (Barrio Tricolor, left) beautified poor areas by repainting houses in the colours of the Venezuelan flag. Past governments liked to pretend the barrios didn't exist; Chávez governments said "we know there are problems, but these are your homes and they are nothing to be ashamed of."
Culture, Education, and Aspiration
Just as Chávez made it acceptable to live in a barrio instead of the gilded-cage apartment blocks preferred by the wealthy, his own unlikely ascent validated "Venezuelanness" itself.
In pre-Chávez Venezuela as in wider Latin America, model states and societies were to be found across the pond in Europe or across the Rio Grande in America. The more western ideas, diplomas, brands, and affectations you could get your hands on, the better you were doing. For the same reason, the barrios were seen as a third-world urban stain, whereas grand boulevards and futuristic skyways represented progress; they now make Caracas a sprawling, gridlocked hell. Politics was dominated by nice men in suits who cordially agreed to share power at every election, in line with the terms of their pact (of Punto Fijo, 1958). This was no place for a poor, afro-indigenous soldier with a habit of getting angry about things or breaking into llanera folk songs (below). And yet, in 1999 there he was slipping on the presidential sash.

This in itself would be enough to make Chávez a folk hero and inspiration, but there is more to it. Aside from revelling in Venezuelan culture and reviling cultural imperialism, he was committed to nurturing intellectual development and political consciousness.
The bizarre antics and fiery speeches that made it into the foreign press were less common than his musings on whatever philosophical, historical, or literary text he happened to be reading (for he was always reading something). In a country that's not afraid of a bit of self-aggrandisement, he explored and explained without condescension. Articles about Chávez routinely fixate on his fixation with The Great Liberator, Simón Bolívar, but he was equally fond of Bolívar's Rousseau-loving tutor, Simón Rodríguez, and it showed.
It is a commonplace to note that illiteracy was taken to the verge of extinction by another social programme, Misión Robinson. Less well-known is the fact that in Latin America books are prohibitively expensive, and literacy will only do you so much good if you can't afford a book. Successive Chávez administrations used subsidies and state publishing houses to democratise access to the materials of culture and education. Taking from my shelf comparable texts purchased in Venezuela and Ecuador, I find that the Venezuelan one cost less than £2, the Ecuadorian one nearly £10. This is not unrepresentative, and Ecuador's lower GDP per capita makes the real difference even starker.
In a society more accustomed to hyper-consumerism and rumba (partying), Chávez tried to provide the example, the encouragement, and the means for people to educate themselves.

Babette's Feast with the Refugees at the State Oil Company
One bizarre moment from my time in Venezuela illustrates perfectly these changes in the state's posture towards the disadvantaged, from distance and disdain to acceptance and advancement.
Before Chávez, the state oil company PDVSA operated as a "state within a state", run for their own benefit by the economic, managerial, and technical elites that populated its imposing headquarters in Caracas. As any old article will tell you, after the top brass were removed for orchestrating a strike that wiped billions off the country's GDP, Chávez made PDVSA the executor of wide-ranging social programmes that have greatly improved health and education.
But devastating floods in late 2010 revealed that the shift was cultural as well as operational. With thousands made homeless the PDVSA HQ - like other government buildings, including the presidential palace - was turned into a temporary shelter. State institutions that would once have gone to great lengths to intimidate through studied cultural distance were put into the service of the most vulnerable. Beyond putting a roof over refugees' heads, they hosted meetings, workshops, and cultural events.

And so it was that after interviewing some oil official or other I found myself in a cavernous PDVSA auditorium watching foreign-language cinema with as ragtag a sample of Venezuelan society as you could hope to see. With the best equipment money can buy, in plush surroundings once reserved for well-oiled executives, I sat down with a low-ranking soldier, an old man or two, and a handful of riotous, track-suited refugees to watch the Franco-Danish rumination on sensuality Babette's Feast.
And so what? Did the screening change their lives? Perhaps not, but it was not a one-off and it certainly had more impact than no screening at all. More significant than the event itself was the fact that the state considered this audience worthy of access not only to "high culture", but also to the literal corridors of power. Symbolically it was saying "the arts and institutions from which you were excluded are yours and you are worthy of them." This is fundamental to the socio-political inclusion that really could make a difference long-term. It would have been inconceivable before Chávez.
Between Tropicalismo, Rationality, and Dignity
The foreign media have remained blind to these changes, simply supplementing the usual "populist buys votes of the poor" line with a new "Maduro plays up spirituality to Chávez-obsessed electorate" trope that trivialises support for Maduro while appearing to explain it: "Y'know, it's those wacky, warm-blooded, and irrational - if not downright stupid - Venezuelans!"
The prosaic reality, in Venezuela as in every other country, is that political affiliation is a fuzzy mix of self-interest, ideology, and emotion. After years of being tolerated at best, at worst ignored, is it any wonder that Venezuela's poor revere the first president to care about them and give them confidence in themselves?
As a presumably serious, cold-blooded, rational European - atheist, educated, and entirely disinterested too - I'm also glad that Chávez's project will continue. Whatever the faults of Chávez, Maduro, and their party, they have been a vast improvement on the bad old days.

[Sir X]

The Jamaicanization of Europe
Posted: 05/29/2012 11:18 am

Mark WeisbrotCo-director, Center for Economic and Policy Research, Washington, D.C.

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Jamaica, an English-speaking Caribbean island nation of 2.9 million people, may seem worlds away from Europe. The country's income per person of $9,000 ranks it 88th in the world, as compared to the Eurozone countries, which are three or four times richer. But they face a common problem, and although none of the Eurozone countries is likely to become as poor as Jamaica is today, they could easily -- going forward -- mimic the dismal economic performance that Jamaica has seen over the past 20 years.

Jamaica has the world's highest public debt burden: interest payments on the government's debt account for 10 percent of the country's national income. (For comparison, Greece -- with the worst debt burden in Europe, is paying 6.8 percent of GDP in interest.) This leaves little room for public investment in infrastructure, or improving education or health care. Partly as a result of this debt trap, Jamaica's income per person has grown by just 0.7 percent annually over the past 20 years.

Two years ago Jamaica reached an agreement with its creditors, brokered by the IMF, that restructured its debt. Interest payments were lowered, and some principal payments were pushed forward. But the debt burden remained unsustainable. The IMF now projects that Jamaica's debt will reach 153 percent of GDP in just three years.

Sound familiar? That is what happened to Greece just four months ago. The Greek government reached an agreement with the European authorities (the "Troika" of the European Central Bank or ECB, the European Commission, and the IMF) that reduced its debt. Unlike in Jamaica, the private investors holding Greek debt took a "haircut," losing about half of the principal. But still it wasn't enough. Before the ink was dry on the deal, an IMF estimate of a "pessimistic scenario" going forward showed Greek debt reaching more than 160 percent of GDP by 2020. Since the IMF's projections for Greece over the past few years have proved enormously over-optimistic, and with Europe sliding further into recession, the pessimistic scenario is the more likely one. This means that even if Greek voters end up with a government that accepts the agreement -- by no means guaranteed -- it is likely that their economy will limp along from one crisis to the next until there is another restructuring, or a chaotic default.

In both Greece and Jamaica, the problem is not just the debt itself but even more, the policies that the creditors have attached to further lending. In Greece it is extreme: the Troika insisted on Greece cutting 8.6 percent of GDP from its fiscal deficit over the past two years -- the equivalent of the United States wiping out its entire federal budget deficit of $1.3 trillion. Naturally the economy went into a tailspin. In Jamaica, the IMF also attached conditions during the 2008-2009 economic crisis that worsened the country's downturn.

Europe's problem with harmful policies attached to official lending is not limited to Greece. Dow Jones' recent headline tells the sad story of Portugal in a sentence: "EU: Portugal Will Need More Austerity to Meet Deficit Targets." Yes, the European Commission wants Portugal to make even bigger budget cuts because the ones that they already made have shrunk the economy so much that they won't make their target deficit-to-GDP ratio. The economy is projected to shrink by a painful 3.3 percent this year, and official unemployment has risen from 12.9 percent last year to 15.3 percent. Ireland is in recession, yet it is also engaging in big budget tightening.

Spain hasn't yet had to borrow from the Troika, but has followed the same policies. With more than half of its youth languishing in unemployment, Spain's fiscal tightening -- according to the government's projections -- will carve 2.6 percent out of its economic growth this year.

Of course there are many important differences between the situation of the Eurozone countries and Jamaica, and among the Eurozone countries themselves. Jamaica needs debt cancellation; some of the Eurozone countries in trouble, for example Spain, would have a sustainable debt burden if the ECB would simply intervene in the sovereign bond markets and guarantee a low interest rate on their bonds. And the ECB, as the issuer of a hard currency in a monetary area with no serious inflationary threat, has a lot of room to do whatever is necessary to make sure that all of the Eurozone countries have low borrowing costs and therefore sustainable debt.

But the ECB has refused to use its powers to put an end to the sovereign debt crisis, preferring instead -- hand-in-hand with the rest of the Troika -- to exploit it in order to force unpopular political changes in Eurozone countries, especially the weaker ones. In so doing, they are condemning these countries to the long-term stagnation of high unemployment and slow growth that Jamaica has suffered for the past two decades. Although the human costs are much higher in a developing country such as Jamaica, it's a lot of unnecessary suffering on both sides of the ocean.

This article was published in The Guardian (UK) on May 18, 2012.