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PNP Administration taking us to the brink?
In the long JLP campaign for the 2007 general elections, the mantra enshrined in the JLP's election manifesto was 'jobs, jobs, jobs'.
As the Golding-led JLP won its narrow victory, sweet as it was — coming from out of the cold of more than 18 years in opposition — it was greeted by the arrival of the worst global economic horror since the Great Depression of the 1920s.
Notwithstanding that, by 2010 the country's NIR was fairly healthy, there was some stability in the exchange rate, bank lending rates were trending down and with business confidence on the increase, although the gurus in the business class said the stage was set for growth, the jobs, jobs, jobs were still nowhere to be seen.
The fact is, as mirrored in the US recovery, it takes many years to 'right-size' and for businesses and consumers to arrive at that point of synergy that they act in tandem to satisfy their own self-interests.
Long before the Golding Administration had arrived on the political scene in late 2007, Jamaica had been caught up in the triple whammy caused by poor economic management by our political leaders — stagnation, puny growth, and recession.
So the global economic recession hit in December 2007 and worked its way into our system all the way to 2009, while our people were resilient enough to deal with the added hardships. It was perfectly captured by a taxicab driver as he said to me in 2008, "Look how long poor people inna recession. Dis a nutten new to wi."
With the stage set for its growth agenda in 2010, the JLP Administration spat on itself and on the country in the 'Dudus' debacle and eventually spat out itself and headed for familiar territory -- the Opposition benches.
In spite of the very real fact of the global recession and the effects it had on Jamaica, during Golding's tenure as prime minister, the Opposition PNP, long a master of playing to the 'penny section', would never let up on reminding the nation that no jobs, jobs, jobs had materialised. The PNP even blamed the JLP Government for the global increase in the price of grain and oil and its local effects on a struggling economy such as ours.
The people ate it all up and in late 2011 discarded the JLP for the syrupy sweet promises of the PNP propaganda machine. Led by Portia Simpson Miller, the PNP also hammered the JLP Government and its Finance Minister Audley Shaw for the failure to complete a new agreement with the IMF, which the JLP was forced to turn to after the ravages of the global recession.
Allowing Portia to get away with anything
Even with the PNP now in power for over 15 months, there are still some PNP diehards who are willing to rehash the failure of the JLP Administration from 2007 to 2011 to provide those jobs, jobs, jobs. They do so seemingly oblivious to the realities of the recession and more than reasonable economic management the JLP displayed in getting back key economic variables in the right direction.
With the IMF taking its own sweet time in submitting our programme/proposal to its board, one senses that somewhere along the way we are not being told the truth for the delays which are likely to be emanating from our end. The IMF is, of course, totally au fait with the fancy footwork of politicians, and it has historically distanced itself from appearing to favour one political party approach over another.
So even if our politicians sell us snake oil in baskets, it is the tendency of the IMF to either ignore the rhetoric, whisper jokes to their colleagues about our sorry selves and certainly to say nothing publicly which falls outside of their strict diplomatic responses to economic matters.
Golding's party promised jobs, jobs, jobs in 2007 and did not deliver, but the reason for the non-delivery was self-explanatory.
In the debates before the 2011 election, the soon-to-be prime minister, then opposition leader Portia Simpson Miller, in answer to a question, promised that a new IMF agreement would be sown up in a matter of weeks if her party took power. It was a blatant misrepresentation then, and to my knowledge, she has not apologised to the nation for commenting on something which, hindsight tells us, she knew little of.
We lambasted Golding for the lack of jobs, but we are constantly giving Simpson Miller a pass on using a blatant false promise to win an election. The PNP apologists will, of course, say that she really did not know the true state of the country's affairs until her party took office. Again we yield to hindsight and would suggest, belatedly, that her answer should have been, "I will make it top priority as we assume the role of government and will mobilise the finance ministry to pursue it with those objectives in mind."
The essential difference between the JLP Government of the 2007 to 2011 period and the 15-month period of the PNP Administration, notwithstanding the usual political capers (a JLP minister claiming his right to luxurious living, the PNP purchasing fancy SUVs in these tough times) is that there was a sense in the JLP times that a manager was in the office.
With the dollar about to break through that dangerous psychological value of being worth one US cent, it is hardly likely that it has any intention of reversing its direction. Fear feeds on fear and the whole is bred by inept management by the PNP Cabinet and the prime minister, who seems not just totally befuddled by all that's happening around her, but in instances aloof, as if it is of no real concern to her.
Even if the most rabid PNP supporter should admit to herself that Portia did not study economics, and no evidence has surfaced that she is an ardent fan of reading up on such matters, she must at some stage ask herself if there is something else that she could do better to slow the decline of the dollar which will hurt her and her four kids now and later, much worse.
The PNP has historically ruined the economy
Norman Manley was premier when his Administration presided over significant economic growth.
In the post-Independence period there is a very definite trend in the PNP/JLP nexus. During a JLP Administration the economy grows. After the PNP comes into power, it saps the economy because of its inherent socialist belief that it is easier to shift State resources to its base than it is to invest in the long-term vision of creating policy to generate national wealth.
The economy grew at a healthy clip from 1962 to 1972 under a JLP Administration. It has to be admitted, however, that JLP administrations, trending as they do towards empowering those with capital, are oftentimes perceived as lacking a social conscience. In addition, those of us over 60 tend not to forget the JLP banning books on Black Power, making the late Guyanese lecturer Dr Walter Rodney persona non grata and beating up Rasta.
It could be that the JLP Administration of 1962 to 1972 had not reached to that stage of political evolution that caused it to grow a social conscience, or it was simply reacting as any other government of the time would do, to crises beyond the normal ones that a developing country would be expected to face.
We may argue about the proximate cause or, a composite of causes for the atrocious economic decline during Michael Manley's run from 1972 to 1980. What we do know is that the economy suffered about a 19 per cent decline, made worse by a 24 per cent decline between 1974 and 1980.
The JLP Government of Eddie Seaga was forced to be a government elected to rescue the country. Badly hated by those who disliked him and judged as 'suspicious' by those who tolerated him, Seaga — after the tough years of placing the economy back on an even keel — eventually posted significant economic growth in the latter part of his run.
It is significant to note that even though the PNP tends to devise policies that dole out State resources to many who do not necessarily work for their pay — due to the abysmal economic management of the PNP Administration of the 1989 to 2007 period -- in the finance ministry's attempt during the 1990s and beyond to 'mop up liquidity', it was Ronnie Thwaites, now minister of education who, in a burst of conscience attack, said that the PNP Government of that time was responsible for the greatest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich since slavery.
So even with the PNP's socialist agenda and with its ranks filled with those with social science degrees from UWI — with all of that, its lack of a working knowledge of the market-driven economy forced it into printing paper (government bonds) and selling the paper to the moneyed class as loans to be redeemed later at quite healthy interest rates. Of course, at each budget, it was the poor who had to bear the brunt of the negative payback.
Up until 2011 the PNP has always won elections from the JLP while the economy was growing. During those times the PNP wrecked the economy (1972 to 1980) and averaged less than one per cent growth (1989 to 2007) at a time when the global economy was in a boom period.
The PNP found itself in uncharted territory when it won in 2011. For the first time it 'won' an economy which was just recovering from the ravages of the global recession and had pending the new IMF agreement.
Although there are ministers in the PNP Cabinet who are fully charged up on the capitalist, market-driven model, one senses that if the PNP pushes too much and too fast a growth agenda as espoused in its Progressive Agenda, it will alienate its base of poor voters who are always looking to it for the easiest route to a bellyful.
One also senses that the prime minister is more than divided on direction, especially as the IMF dictates will not allow her any wiggle room to give away nice vote-catching goodies.
I am somewhat heartened that in the PNP Administration's growth agenda as mentioned in the GG's Throne Speech (archaic nonsense, this throne business) there is mention of the Logistics Hub. I am also pleased that minister of industry, investment and commerce Anthony Hylton has been logging thousands of miles either to sell the plans to the international community or to make final links with those who are already on board.
Minister Hylton, those miles must result in a huge payday for Jamaica in the medium term.
As for the here-and-now, the prime minister must step up to the bat and address matters on the economy and pressing fiscal numbers that are causing near panic in all sections of the business community.
A declining dollar, shortage of foreign exchange and too much uncertainty will, if they continue, lead to one conclusion. The job is bigger that what the PM can handle.
And if she cannot handle it, there are two other obvious options.
Why is the PNP afraid of a completed Finsac report?
With the sorry state of the economy as it is now, the PNP has its escape clause on the Finsac report.
If financial constraints were earlier given as main reasons for its non-completion, then 'financial crisis' can now be invoked.
The irony is, there is the possibility and the likelihood that many answers to what now ails the economy may be in the pages of a completed Finsac Report.
I am, however, wondering if the PNP is simply giving the JLP a healthy dose of payback. Payback, in that the Manatt enquiry, although it would have added to Golding's decision to end his political career, was not consistent with the conclusions of the Manatt Report.
We had an enquiry, saw it live on television, then later when the report was issued, we were stunned at the findings.
Although I believe the PNP Administration of 1989 to 2007 would be sorely embarrassed by the findings in a Finsac Report, the last JLP Administration has to take some of the blame for it.
After all, we live in a country where our politicians are more scallywags than gentlemen living up to their noble promises to serve the people's interests.
It is quite likely that a Finsac Report would show that many people's interests were 'served up' to the greedy few governing us.
observemark@gmail.com
Read more: http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...#ixzz2PsJpjxht
PNP Administration taking us to the brink?
In the long JLP campaign for the 2007 general elections, the mantra enshrined in the JLP's election manifesto was 'jobs, jobs, jobs'.
As the Golding-led JLP won its narrow victory, sweet as it was — coming from out of the cold of more than 18 years in opposition — it was greeted by the arrival of the worst global economic horror since the Great Depression of the 1920s.
Notwithstanding that, by 2010 the country's NIR was fairly healthy, there was some stability in the exchange rate, bank lending rates were trending down and with business confidence on the increase, although the gurus in the business class said the stage was set for growth, the jobs, jobs, jobs were still nowhere to be seen.
The fact is, as mirrored in the US recovery, it takes many years to 'right-size' and for businesses and consumers to arrive at that point of synergy that they act in tandem to satisfy their own self-interests.
Long before the Golding Administration had arrived on the political scene in late 2007, Jamaica had been caught up in the triple whammy caused by poor economic management by our political leaders — stagnation, puny growth, and recession.
So the global economic recession hit in December 2007 and worked its way into our system all the way to 2009, while our people were resilient enough to deal with the added hardships. It was perfectly captured by a taxicab driver as he said to me in 2008, "Look how long poor people inna recession. Dis a nutten new to wi."
With the stage set for its growth agenda in 2010, the JLP Administration spat on itself and on the country in the 'Dudus' debacle and eventually spat out itself and headed for familiar territory -- the Opposition benches.
In spite of the very real fact of the global recession and the effects it had on Jamaica, during Golding's tenure as prime minister, the Opposition PNP, long a master of playing to the 'penny section', would never let up on reminding the nation that no jobs, jobs, jobs had materialised. The PNP even blamed the JLP Government for the global increase in the price of grain and oil and its local effects on a struggling economy such as ours.
The people ate it all up and in late 2011 discarded the JLP for the syrupy sweet promises of the PNP propaganda machine. Led by Portia Simpson Miller, the PNP also hammered the JLP Government and its Finance Minister Audley Shaw for the failure to complete a new agreement with the IMF, which the JLP was forced to turn to after the ravages of the global recession.
Allowing Portia to get away with anything
Even with the PNP now in power for over 15 months, there are still some PNP diehards who are willing to rehash the failure of the JLP Administration from 2007 to 2011 to provide those jobs, jobs, jobs. They do so seemingly oblivious to the realities of the recession and more than reasonable economic management the JLP displayed in getting back key economic variables in the right direction.
With the IMF taking its own sweet time in submitting our programme/proposal to its board, one senses that somewhere along the way we are not being told the truth for the delays which are likely to be emanating from our end. The IMF is, of course, totally au fait with the fancy footwork of politicians, and it has historically distanced itself from appearing to favour one political party approach over another.
So even if our politicians sell us snake oil in baskets, it is the tendency of the IMF to either ignore the rhetoric, whisper jokes to their colleagues about our sorry selves and certainly to say nothing publicly which falls outside of their strict diplomatic responses to economic matters.
Golding's party promised jobs, jobs, jobs in 2007 and did not deliver, but the reason for the non-delivery was self-explanatory.
In the debates before the 2011 election, the soon-to-be prime minister, then opposition leader Portia Simpson Miller, in answer to a question, promised that a new IMF agreement would be sown up in a matter of weeks if her party took power. It was a blatant misrepresentation then, and to my knowledge, she has not apologised to the nation for commenting on something which, hindsight tells us, she knew little of.
We lambasted Golding for the lack of jobs, but we are constantly giving Simpson Miller a pass on using a blatant false promise to win an election. The PNP apologists will, of course, say that she really did not know the true state of the country's affairs until her party took office. Again we yield to hindsight and would suggest, belatedly, that her answer should have been, "I will make it top priority as we assume the role of government and will mobilise the finance ministry to pursue it with those objectives in mind."
The essential difference between the JLP Government of the 2007 to 2011 period and the 15-month period of the PNP Administration, notwithstanding the usual political capers (a JLP minister claiming his right to luxurious living, the PNP purchasing fancy SUVs in these tough times) is that there was a sense in the JLP times that a manager was in the office.
With the dollar about to break through that dangerous psychological value of being worth one US cent, it is hardly likely that it has any intention of reversing its direction. Fear feeds on fear and the whole is bred by inept management by the PNP Cabinet and the prime minister, who seems not just totally befuddled by all that's happening around her, but in instances aloof, as if it is of no real concern to her.
Even if the most rabid PNP supporter should admit to herself that Portia did not study economics, and no evidence has surfaced that she is an ardent fan of reading up on such matters, she must at some stage ask herself if there is something else that she could do better to slow the decline of the dollar which will hurt her and her four kids now and later, much worse.
The PNP has historically ruined the economy
Norman Manley was premier when his Administration presided over significant economic growth.
In the post-Independence period there is a very definite trend in the PNP/JLP nexus. During a JLP Administration the economy grows. After the PNP comes into power, it saps the economy because of its inherent socialist belief that it is easier to shift State resources to its base than it is to invest in the long-term vision of creating policy to generate national wealth.
The economy grew at a healthy clip from 1962 to 1972 under a JLP Administration. It has to be admitted, however, that JLP administrations, trending as they do towards empowering those with capital, are oftentimes perceived as lacking a social conscience. In addition, those of us over 60 tend not to forget the JLP banning books on Black Power, making the late Guyanese lecturer Dr Walter Rodney persona non grata and beating up Rasta.
It could be that the JLP Administration of 1962 to 1972 had not reached to that stage of political evolution that caused it to grow a social conscience, or it was simply reacting as any other government of the time would do, to crises beyond the normal ones that a developing country would be expected to face.
We may argue about the proximate cause or, a composite of causes for the atrocious economic decline during Michael Manley's run from 1972 to 1980. What we do know is that the economy suffered about a 19 per cent decline, made worse by a 24 per cent decline between 1974 and 1980.
The JLP Government of Eddie Seaga was forced to be a government elected to rescue the country. Badly hated by those who disliked him and judged as 'suspicious' by those who tolerated him, Seaga — after the tough years of placing the economy back on an even keel — eventually posted significant economic growth in the latter part of his run.
It is significant to note that even though the PNP tends to devise policies that dole out State resources to many who do not necessarily work for their pay — due to the abysmal economic management of the PNP Administration of the 1989 to 2007 period -- in the finance ministry's attempt during the 1990s and beyond to 'mop up liquidity', it was Ronnie Thwaites, now minister of education who, in a burst of conscience attack, said that the PNP Government of that time was responsible for the greatest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich since slavery.
So even with the PNP's socialist agenda and with its ranks filled with those with social science degrees from UWI — with all of that, its lack of a working knowledge of the market-driven economy forced it into printing paper (government bonds) and selling the paper to the moneyed class as loans to be redeemed later at quite healthy interest rates. Of course, at each budget, it was the poor who had to bear the brunt of the negative payback.
Up until 2011 the PNP has always won elections from the JLP while the economy was growing. During those times the PNP wrecked the economy (1972 to 1980) and averaged less than one per cent growth (1989 to 2007) at a time when the global economy was in a boom period.
The PNP found itself in uncharted territory when it won in 2011. For the first time it 'won' an economy which was just recovering from the ravages of the global recession and had pending the new IMF agreement.
Although there are ministers in the PNP Cabinet who are fully charged up on the capitalist, market-driven model, one senses that if the PNP pushes too much and too fast a growth agenda as espoused in its Progressive Agenda, it will alienate its base of poor voters who are always looking to it for the easiest route to a bellyful.
One also senses that the prime minister is more than divided on direction, especially as the IMF dictates will not allow her any wiggle room to give away nice vote-catching goodies.
I am somewhat heartened that in the PNP Administration's growth agenda as mentioned in the GG's Throne Speech (archaic nonsense, this throne business) there is mention of the Logistics Hub. I am also pleased that minister of industry, investment and commerce Anthony Hylton has been logging thousands of miles either to sell the plans to the international community or to make final links with those who are already on board.
Minister Hylton, those miles must result in a huge payday for Jamaica in the medium term.
As for the here-and-now, the prime minister must step up to the bat and address matters on the economy and pressing fiscal numbers that are causing near panic in all sections of the business community.
A declining dollar, shortage of foreign exchange and too much uncertainty will, if they continue, lead to one conclusion. The job is bigger that what the PM can handle.
And if she cannot handle it, there are two other obvious options.
Why is the PNP afraid of a completed Finsac report?
With the sorry state of the economy as it is now, the PNP has its escape clause on the Finsac report.
If financial constraints were earlier given as main reasons for its non-completion, then 'financial crisis' can now be invoked.
The irony is, there is the possibility and the likelihood that many answers to what now ails the economy may be in the pages of a completed Finsac Report.
I am, however, wondering if the PNP is simply giving the JLP a healthy dose of payback. Payback, in that the Manatt enquiry, although it would have added to Golding's decision to end his political career, was not consistent with the conclusions of the Manatt Report.
We had an enquiry, saw it live on television, then later when the report was issued, we were stunned at the findings.
Although I believe the PNP Administration of 1989 to 2007 would be sorely embarrassed by the findings in a Finsac Report, the last JLP Administration has to take some of the blame for it.
After all, we live in a country where our politicians are more scallywags than gentlemen living up to their noble promises to serve the people's interests.
It is quite likely that a Finsac Report would show that many people's interests were 'served up' to the greedy few governing us.
observemark@gmail.com
Read more: http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...#ixzz2PsJpjxht
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