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Don1 News Scoop.. leaving the Gleaner & the Sandals Newsletter inna di dust 
:
1976...just before the critical election
F. IN SUM, AS LONG AS THE MOVEMENT TO THE LEFT IS A DRIFT
AND NOT A QUANTUM LEAP THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORCES IN
JAMAICA WHICH CAN CHECK MANLEY. AS FOR SPAULDING AND HIS
GARRISON GANG, HE CAN BE CHECKED WHENEVER MANLEY GIVES
THE WORD. MANY WITHIN THE SECURITY FORCES WOULD RELISH
THE ASSIGNMENT.
7. HOW FAR ARE SEAGA AND THE JLP WILLING TO GO IN OPPOSING
MANLEY AND THE PNP- IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF THE JLP
STEPPING UP ITS LEVEL OF VIOLENCE IN RESPONSE TO MANLEY'S
ACTIONS?
A. SEAGA HAS HIS "GUNMEN" OR "SOLDIERS". SOME ASTUTE
LOCAL OBSERVERS CONTEND THAT IF IT WERE A SIMPLE QUESTION
OF JLP VERSUS PNP GUNMEN, SEAGA WOULD WIN. MANLEY, HOWEVER,
HAS THE SECUTITY FORCES OF THE GOVERNMENT AT HIS DISPOSAL.
JLP GUNMEN ARE NO MATCH FOR THAT KIND OF FIREPOWER AND
ORGANIZATION
B. MANLEY WOULD LOVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO USE THE SECURITY
FORCES TO ROOT OUT SEAGA'S SUPPORTERS. INDEED, A GOOD
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECENT VIOLENCE WAS A
PNP INSPIREDPROVOCATION TO FLUSH THEM OUT INTO THE
OPEN. SEAGA CAN NOT AFFORD THAT, AND HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING
TO RESTRIN HIS SUPPORTERS. HE NEEDS THEM FOR THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION, MAINLY TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR JLP
CANDIDATES, AND ACT AS A COUNTERFORCE TO INTIMIDATION
ATTEMPTS BY PNP GUNMEN.
SECRET
PAGE 07 STATE 035974
C. LEST ANYONE BE IN DOUBT, SEAGA IS NO ANGEL, BUT IF
ANYTHING HE IS RATIONAL. AS AN OPPOSITION LEADER HE GETS
ONLY ONE SHOT, AND THAT THE EMBASSY BELIEVES HE WILL SAVE
FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION. POWER ISHIS GOAL AND THAT CAN
ONLY BE ACHIEVED THROUGH THE BALLOT-BOX. HE NEEDS HIS
GUNMEN TO ASSURE SAFE PASSAGE FOR HIS SUPPORTERS TO THE
POLLING STATION
:1976...just before the critical election
F. IN SUM, AS LONG AS THE MOVEMENT TO THE LEFT IS A DRIFT
AND NOT A QUANTUM LEAP THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORCES IN
JAMAICA WHICH CAN CHECK MANLEY. AS FOR SPAULDING AND HIS
GARRISON GANG, HE CAN BE CHECKED WHENEVER MANLEY GIVES
THE WORD. MANY WITHIN THE SECURITY FORCES WOULD RELISH
THE ASSIGNMENT.
7. HOW FAR ARE SEAGA AND THE JLP WILLING TO GO IN OPPOSING
MANLEY AND THE PNP- IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF THE JLP
STEPPING UP ITS LEVEL OF VIOLENCE IN RESPONSE TO MANLEY'S
ACTIONS?
A. SEAGA HAS HIS "GUNMEN" OR "SOLDIERS". SOME ASTUTE
LOCAL OBSERVERS CONTEND THAT IF IT WERE A SIMPLE QUESTION
OF JLP VERSUS PNP GUNMEN, SEAGA WOULD WIN. MANLEY, HOWEVER,
HAS THE SECUTITY FORCES OF THE GOVERNMENT AT HIS DISPOSAL.
JLP GUNMEN ARE NO MATCH FOR THAT KIND OF FIREPOWER AND
ORGANIZATION
B. MANLEY WOULD LOVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO USE THE SECURITY
FORCES TO ROOT OUT SEAGA'S SUPPORTERS. INDEED, A GOOD
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECENT VIOLENCE WAS A
PNP INSPIREDPROVOCATION TO FLUSH THEM OUT INTO THE
OPEN. SEAGA CAN NOT AFFORD THAT, AND HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING
TO RESTRIN HIS SUPPORTERS. HE NEEDS THEM FOR THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION, MAINLY TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR JLP
CANDIDATES, AND ACT AS A COUNTERFORCE TO INTIMIDATION
ATTEMPTS BY PNP GUNMEN.
SECRET
PAGE 07 STATE 035974
C. LEST ANYONE BE IN DOUBT, SEAGA IS NO ANGEL, BUT IF
ANYTHING HE IS RATIONAL. AS AN OPPOSITION LEADER HE GETS
ONLY ONE SHOT, AND THAT THE EMBASSY BELIEVES HE WILL SAVE
FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION. POWER ISHIS GOAL AND THAT CAN
ONLY BE ACHIEVED THROUGH THE BALLOT-BOX. HE NEEDS HIS
GUNMEN TO ASSURE SAFE PASSAGE FOR HIS SUPPORTERS TO THE
POLLING STATION
