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EDITORIAL - Life After Chávez
Published: Thursday | March 7, 2013
AS WRENCHING as it may still have been for his mass of supporters around the world, few could claim that Tuesday's death of Hugo Chávez, the charismatic and controversial president of Venezuela, had been entirely unexpected.
There was a sense that statements in recent days by his deputy, Nicolas Maduro, about the deteriorated state of Chávez's health were preparing the Venezuelan public for the inevitable. In that regard, Chávez's February 18 return to Venezuela from Cuba might have been a coming home to die.
Indeed, the Venezuelan president was keenly aware of his own mortality and the fact, perhaps, that he was terminally ill. Before leaving for Havana last December for his fourth surgery for the cancer that eventually claimed his life, Chávez anointed Maduro as the man to whom Venezuelans should look "to continue, if I can't".
Chávez's political movement, and the government it spawned, should take time to contemplate a post-Chávez Venezuela. So, too, should other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Jamaica, that benefited from Chávez's policies, or for whose pink-tinted revolutions for which he provided inspiration. Except that the Venezuelan situation is not straightforward. It is rather complex.
Hugo Chávez was one of those larger-than-life figures, who at once commanded great support and loyalty and visceral opposition. In Venezuela, poor people embraced his populist social programmes in education, health and housing. His opponents say he wasted resources, that his socialism wrecked the country's economy and that he presided over a creeping dictatorship. His harsh criticism of American policy, especially during the administration of George W. Bush, alienated the United States and its closet allies.
Yet few leaders in Latin America subjected himself and his policies to the vote as did Chávez, a former coup leader who found legitimacy via the ballot box. He won four presidential elections, including the one last October, as well as recall election vote. He also prevailed in two constitution-related referenda, and lost one.
But the jury remains out on Chávez's legacy - including his Chavismo at home and the hemispherical alliances he created.
Matter of months
It is likely that Maduro will win the presidency in an election that must be held in a matter of months. Maduro is no Hugo Chávez. The issue, therefore, is can he hold Chavismo together in the face of a declining economy, spiralling inflation, high crime and an opposition that, in the absence Chávez, is likely to be grow in confidence and, perhaps, support.
There is the question, too, of how Chávez's policies in the region, especially his PetroCaribe oil initiative, will fare. This is a matter of importance to Jamaica.
PetroCaribe allows beneficiaries credit, at low interest and long repayment periods, for up to 70 per cent of the oil they import from Venezuela. In Jamaica's case, the foreign-exchange cushion is about US$500 million a year. PetroCaribe was established on the foundation of Chávez's personality and ideology. There are some, even Chavistas, who believed its terms to be too generous.
Whatever the final verdict on the Chávez years, we hope for a peaceful, democratic transition in Venezuela. It is up to the government and opposition to create an environment for this.
Published: Thursday | March 7, 2013
AS WRENCHING as it may still have been for his mass of supporters around the world, few could claim that Tuesday's death of Hugo Chávez, the charismatic and controversial president of Venezuela, had been entirely unexpected.
There was a sense that statements in recent days by his deputy, Nicolas Maduro, about the deteriorated state of Chávez's health were preparing the Venezuelan public for the inevitable. In that regard, Chávez's February 18 return to Venezuela from Cuba might have been a coming home to die.
Indeed, the Venezuelan president was keenly aware of his own mortality and the fact, perhaps, that he was terminally ill. Before leaving for Havana last December for his fourth surgery for the cancer that eventually claimed his life, Chávez anointed Maduro as the man to whom Venezuelans should look "to continue, if I can't".
Chávez's political movement, and the government it spawned, should take time to contemplate a post-Chávez Venezuela. So, too, should other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Jamaica, that benefited from Chávez's policies, or for whose pink-tinted revolutions for which he provided inspiration. Except that the Venezuelan situation is not straightforward. It is rather complex.
Hugo Chávez was one of those larger-than-life figures, who at once commanded great support and loyalty and visceral opposition. In Venezuela, poor people embraced his populist social programmes in education, health and housing. His opponents say he wasted resources, that his socialism wrecked the country's economy and that he presided over a creeping dictatorship. His harsh criticism of American policy, especially during the administration of George W. Bush, alienated the United States and its closet allies.
Yet few leaders in Latin America subjected himself and his policies to the vote as did Chávez, a former coup leader who found legitimacy via the ballot box. He won four presidential elections, including the one last October, as well as recall election vote. He also prevailed in two constitution-related referenda, and lost one.
But the jury remains out on Chávez's legacy - including his Chavismo at home and the hemispherical alliances he created.
Matter of months
It is likely that Maduro will win the presidency in an election that must be held in a matter of months. Maduro is no Hugo Chávez. The issue, therefore, is can he hold Chavismo together in the face of a declining economy, spiralling inflation, high crime and an opposition that, in the absence Chávez, is likely to be grow in confidence and, perhaps, support.
There is the question, too, of how Chávez's policies in the region, especially his PetroCaribe oil initiative, will fare. This is a matter of importance to Jamaica.
PetroCaribe allows beneficiaries credit, at low interest and long repayment periods, for up to 70 per cent of the oil they import from Venezuela. In Jamaica's case, the foreign-exchange cushion is about US$500 million a year. PetroCaribe was established on the foundation of Chávez's personality and ideology. There are some, even Chavistas, who believed its terms to be too generous.
Whatever the final verdict on the Chávez years, we hope for a peaceful, democratic transition in Venezuela. It is up to the government and opposition to create an environment for this.
