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THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!
"Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.
"It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes. -
Him down to 310 now. So I guess that's the new blowout number?
Next stop is 298?"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass -
Islandman as of November 5:
Very unlikely - X territory : >330 (loses only IN and NC)
Somewhat likely - a very good night : 303 - 310 (also loses FL )
Most likely result : 285-298 (also loses one or both of CO and VI)
Somewhat likely - A very long night : 271 -285 (lose some more likkle battleground states)
Very unlikely - The Horror story : 269 or less (loses OH )"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick DouglassComment
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Tell X fi go out and vote and make him long island friend them go vote.- Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.
Comment
- Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.
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SNAPSHOT as of November 5, 8:00PM EST:
Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history- SNAPSHOT as of November 5, 8:00PM EST:
- Obama: 309
- Romney: 229
- Meta-margin: Obama +2.34%
- RSS
- Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.2%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%
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November 6th, 2012, 1:47am by Sam Wang
If state polls perform as well as they did in 2004 and 2008, most aggregators should get within +/-15 electoral votes and 48/51 races correct. The question is how to squeeze a bit more out of the data.
The topline listed just below the title of this website is not our prediction, but the automatically-generated snapshot. It will fluctuate as the last few polls trickle in. The last 3 updates are at 8:00am, 10:00am, and noon. Then we freeze it.
I make two electoral predictions.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 332 EV, Mitt Romney 206 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a chance of being exactly correct.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 309 EV, Romney 229 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.34%. This is the automatically-generated snapshot for November 5th 8:00pm. This prediction is almost guaranteed to be off, since 309 EV is not a common combination.
ALL-STATE PREDICTION (binary outcomes):
Most outcomes arose clearly from the median of the last week of polling. The exception was Florida, for which I used polls with at least half of their respondents on Nov. 1 or after. This gave a median margin of Obama +0.5 +/- 0.8% (n=10), for a win probability of 72%. I will be unsurprised for it to go the other way (outcome Obama 303 EV, Romney 235 EV). In Florida, a recount is triggered by a margin of 0.5% or less (recount rules, Brennan Center for Justice). There is about a 50-50 chance that we will see that happen.
The next-closest states are Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, with margins of less than 2.0%. Excluding these three states and Florida still leaves Obama 281 EV, Romney 191 EV.
In addition to all-or-none outcomes, later today I will provide final polling medians in graphical form in the Geek’s Guide. I hope it will be useful as you follow the returns.
POPULAR VOTE. The average Meta-Margin for the last three days was Obama +2.7%. The median of national polls is Obama +1.0 +/- 0.5% (n=13 polls). The approach I described before for combining these measures gives- Final predicted popular-vote margin: Obama +2.2 +/- 1.0%.
- Two-candidate vote share: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.
- Allowing 1% for minor-party candidates: Obama 50.6%, Romney 48.4%.
I should point out that A note: Election Eve prediction is not the most impressive of feats. What we did in August (here, and here) was the interesting part. Those were true predictions, and were centered around Obama 315 EV, Romney 223 EV.
Put your predictions in comments.
→ 47 CommentsTags: 2012 Election · President
A 1-point Sandy bounce?
November 5th, 2012, 10:02pm by Sam Wang
(Today’s our all-time high of traffic – over 300,000 350,000 views. That’s three times our 2008 traffic. Welcome, readers of Andrew Sullivan, Paul Krugman, Wired, Deadspin,Kevin Drum, Peter Norvig, The Blaze…The Blaze? ZOMG!!! I thought you were PECer-heads! Seriously…everyone go read that piece. Alternate reality.)
Some of you expressed concern at an “unnerving” drop in the EV estimator today. I’ll make a confession: part of that was a recent data glitch. Pollster.com was feeding us the rolling daily Ipsos/Reuters averages, which were redundant, especially in North Carolina. It’s fixed now. After the dust clears we’ll scour for similar earlier mistakes.
>>>
Where I live, Halloween was postponed until tonight because of Sandy. The last of the trick-or-treaters have trickled by.
Judging from the return toward semi-normal life here in hard-hit New Jersey, voting mechanics should only be affected in some regions, and less so in other (less blue) states. So the direct physical effect of Sandy is probably small. But what about indirect political effects? [Read more →]
→ 150 CommentsTags: 2012 Election · PresidentTHERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!
"Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.
"It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.Comment
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It look like you end up being a bigger stats man Dan me now, what a way things change,lol"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick DouglassComment
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What I have learned is if you cant back up yuh arguement with stats instead of loud talk and bark you look like a fool.
I dont have to call anyone names to make a point, if i believe it , i will say it and stand by it, hey all i could be is wrong and I am sure I will have learnt a lesson and that is to my benefit.
Mi brethren.THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!
"Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.
"It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.Comment
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Good learning dat!"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick DouglassComment
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Reasonable...given the penchant for shenanighans...Comment
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i am hoping wang is right... he has obama with 332... i predicted (330 - 349)... i am concerned about republicans cheating in ohio...'to get what we've never had, we MUST do what we've never done'Comment
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Whats funny is all the pundits on CNN are now conceeding Romney didnt have any lead after the 1st debate , and his closing of the gap in polls wasnt enough....haha
Dont believe the hype !
Presidential prediction 2012 (final… stay tuned)
November 6th, 2012, 11:47am by Sam Wang
Now that all the polls are in, it’s possible to perform variance minimization, a simple procedure to identify the range of polls that can be used – and therefore reduce uncertainty. We’ll have that in a bit. Calculating and double-checking…stand by.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/1...al-stay-tuned/THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!
"Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.
"It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.Comment
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Presidential prediction 2012 – final
November 6th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
I apologize to all for the late update. We wanted to make sure all the polls were in. And it’s a hectic day.
The following are final estimates, based on taking polling data over longer intervals than our usual 1-week rule. Instead, I found the period over which a state’s polling variance was minimized, as a means of identifying stability.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 303 EV, Mitt Romney 235 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the EV histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a 22% chance of being exactly correct. The next-most-likely outcome is Obama 332, Romney 206 EV.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 305 EV, Romney 233 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.76%. This median is almost guaranteed to be off, since 305 EV is not a common combination. It is the midpoint of all possibilities, and reflects the overall shape of the distribution. The nominal 1-sigma band is Obama [293, 332] EV.
TWO-CANDIDATE POPULAR VOTE SHARE: Obama 51.1%, Romney
http://election.princeton.edu/THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!
"Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.
"It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.Comment
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Good ting election is today at the rate he has been adjusting down his figures.
3 more days and him would have Obama losing, LOL."It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick DouglassComment
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Given all his stats, probabilities and polls, it all comes down to the voters turning out to vote.
330 -360 ..mi say..heheTHERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!
"Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.
"It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.Comment
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MSNBC is great! Fi dem bias is clear! And hilarious!
BLACK LIVES MATTERComment
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