The cost of crime: A back of the envelope calculation

[Don1]

The World Bank estimates that crime costs Jamaica ~6% of GDP. This is probably an understatement when one considers the extreme JLPNP & Big Business Corruption and social disorder those entities create and spread across Jamaica... but let's use that 6% number.

Assumptions:

-6% hit/year effect

Using the mid 70s as a base point (that when crime became more significant)... we'll assume a 36 year time horizon

Choose a median GDP gross number to be "representative"of this 36 year period... So we assume this base number can be manipulated to reflect changes over the 36 year period for the sake of simplicity.

Let's say that representative or "average" GDP number is US$10B... at current prices more than half the current GDP but a nice round base number to calculate from (Atlas Adjustment Method or other Silicon Valley Economics fallacies not considered)

So the "average" GDP haircut per year at constant pricing is US$10B X 6% = US$600m

Over 36 years that's US$600m X 36 = ~US$22B in lost income

The story doesn't end there ... assuming that income was available... Jamaica would have a much reduced debt to service...and more available for investments which have economic multipliers

If 25% of that US$22B or US$5B was invested with a modest 6% return over 36 years...the estimated upside using the Rule of 72... is that US$5B will double every 12 years....so over 36 years the upside is another US$20B

Which means JLPNP & Big Business fostered crime, corruption and social disorder has cost Jamaica north of US40B since the mid 1970s


The JLPNP cannot fix the mess they created... time for the real Social Contract

Memba mi tole unnu

[Don1]

The World Bank estimates that crime costs Jamaica ~6% of GDP. This is probably an understatement when one considers the extreme JLPNP & Big Business Corruption and social disorder those entities create and spread across Jamaica... but let's use that 6% number.

Assumptions:

-6% hit/year effect

Using the mid 70s as a base point (that when crime became more significant)... we'll assume a 36 year time horizon

Choose a median GDP gross number to be "representative"of this 36 year period... So we assume this base number can be manipulated to reflect changes over the 36 year period for the sake of simplicity.

Let's say that representative or "average" GDP number is US$10B... at current prices more than half the current GDP but a nice round base number to calculate from (Atlas Adjustment Method or other Silicon Valley Economics fallacies not considered)

So the "average" GDP haircut per year at constant pricing is US$10B X 6% = US$600m

Over 36 years that's US$600m X 36 = ~US$22B in lost income

The story doesn't end there ... assuming that income was available... Jamaica would have a much reduced debt to service...and more available for investments which have economic multipliers

If 25% of that US$22B or US$5B was invested with a modest 6% return over 36 years...the estimated upside using the Rule of 72... is that US$5B will double every 12 years....so over 36 years the upside is another US$20B

Which means JLPNP & Big Business fostered crime, corruption and social disorder has cost Jamaica north of US40B since the mid 1970s


The JLPNP cannot fix the mess they created... time for the real Social Contract

Memba mi tole unnu

The 800 lb Gorilla no one likes to touch... the hidden costs of disorder, negative social relations, negative social capital, corruption and criminality

Most are too busy with puerile point scoring over long past and now irrelevant & petty tribal confrontations

Jamaicans... so in love with Majoring in the Irrelevant .... while others with really humongous issues like Rwanda & South Africa can overcome their differences and emerge as winners

Dawg nyam wi suppa.... courtesy of our backward mindset

Memba mi tole unnu

[Muadib]

What was the Murder rate in 1989... ?

What was the Murder rate when the PNP left office ?

Which segment of the population is responsible for the majority of this ?

Poor and Reckless economic policy = lack of cash = lack of opportunity plus substandard state controls = high crime and poor mitigation and prosecution capabilities...

Try and connect the dots...

[Don1]

What happened to the murder rate when one JLP aligned gangster was removed?
We noted that you and others were trying to support your tribe's provision of political cover for the criminal...and some still persist with that idiocy...then still complain about crime...such hypocrites

You prove my point with every post

Many thanks

[Muadib]

Reckless and Poor Economic Policy (70's & 90's) = PNP...

guh back tuh di drawing board..

[Don1]

mi dun wid di drawing board lang time

wi move on to Advanced CAD fi pickney... 21st Century tings

Mi nuh ave tuh much time fi di 1970s & 1980s nuh mo

[Muadib]

All who voted for the PNP since 1976 and all who never vote are responsible for the wretched state of Jamaica..

The truth is an offense not a sin.

Accept, Repent and Sin no more...

[Muadib]

mi know what ah boddah you.. di household ting is an anchor.. shame and embarassment.. but nuh compound it with denial..

[Don1]

yuh hopeless....amusing but hopeless

All wen dem ah bury yuh yuh agguh still ah chat bout PNP an Mantu ...LOL

[Muadib]

dat is di oddah ting dat boddah yuh.. parochial sentiments can be a burden..

[Don1]

Mi nuh tink yuh aware ah wha parochial mean.... your political views are its very essence ... time to become inclusive and move from that barren pro JLP focus.

By not doing so your type of insularity makes the cooperation between the tribes which is indispensable for progress, impossible..... so in essence and in logic your worldview makes progress impossible

[Muadib]

It is not my fault you are unable to determine which Administration and Policy philsophy is best given two options...

Yuh brain innah gridlock and those like you put us inna di mess we are in by inaction or madaction when time come fi choose..

JLPNP is a copout.

[Bricktop]

What is the relevance of this information? Dudus is gone and so is crime...stop living in the past

[Don1]

You just don't get it...it's simple logic

Let's say your pro JLP argument is true.... that's actually immaterial because the following is also demonstrably true:


1. >50% of Jamaica's active voters appear to be PNP inclined...the PNP has a natural majority it appears

2. Most of those PNP supporters will NEVER support the JLP just as how most of the JLP's natural minority will NEVER support the PNP... yuh cudda deal, people mostly nah change dem political allegiance -- That's a fact

3. We can agree that Jamaica's performance as a country is poor under the current system.

4. Assuming 1-3 is true one has a decision to make:

A. JLP supporters can continue to bleat in futility about their tribe's superiority and demonize the PNP and the PNP can do their song and dance about the JLP.... That's what happens today which results in gridlock and more decay. It's stupid.

B. The more intelligent can call for a new way forward regardless of what tribe is a favorite of theirs. That's pragmatism.



By your interminable JLP bleating you choose to be with the mass of the Blind & Ignorant Tribalists continuing down a failed path.... but at least you won't be lonely

[Muadib]

The only failed path demonstrated has been the one the PNP has taken us.. 1972-1980 and 1989-2007...

I must therefore attribute the demise of the country to those that

(a) Did not choose correctly
(b) Did not choose at all

At these critical times:

1976, 1989, 1993 Since the country's economic platform for any hope of substained growth at the time was destroyed by those Administrations.

Mi juss give is straight. Who nuh like it or shame..tough