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How elections are won and lost
Published: Sunday | January 8, 2012
Dennis Morrison, Contributor
It is not surprising that supporters of the People's National Party (PNP) would be jubilant at the party's recent historic victory at the polls after its disappointing defeat in September 2007.
In the aftermath of that defeat, the PNP seemed haunted by voter fatigue from its 18 years in office, unprecedented in Jamaica's political history. Judging by the initial outpouring of goodwill for the incoming Golding administration, a two-term spell in Opposition may well have been in the cards, but for the poor performance of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
But party supporters should not get carried away by the massive victory, and nor should the Jamaican electorate entertain wild expectations. In the 35 years between the PNP's landslide electoral victory of December 15, 1976, and the surprisingly big defeat suffered by the JLP in the December 29, 2011 polls, our political parties have, in turn, taken up office with wild expectations that are soon dashed.
This is a reality that should concentrate the minds of Prime Minister Simpson Miller and members of her Cabinet. It is more so the case given the dire economic circumstances facing the country.
By my count, no more than five members of the current Cabinet would have been on the scene when the PNP trounced the JLP in the 1976 election, winning 47 seats to the JLP's 13, and attracting approximately 57 per cent of the popular vote. But with the economy sliding and foreign reserves drying up, the Manley regime turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), creating fissures that undermined the effectiveness of the Government.
disillusioned expectations
By November 1977, it was only a couple of points ahead of the JLP in the Stone polls and never regained popularity in that term. Writing in this newspaper on October 8, 1980, Professor Carl Stone commented on the PNP's demise brought about by the disillusioned expectations of voters after the promises of 1976 melted away as the economy took a sharp turn for the worse. Some say history does not repeat itself, but it at least mirrored itself, as the JLP stormed to power in the 1980 election.
In that watershed election, the JLP captured 51 seats to the PNP's 9, winning 58 per cent of the popular vote. There was great euphoria, and the promise of 'deliverance' created hope that there would be a rapid turnaround in our economic fortunes. But even faster than the PNP, the popularity of the Seaga regime evaporated as it made little headway in the economy, despite massive borrowing from the IMF and freeing up of imports.
The July 1981 Stone poll results showed a six-point slippage in the JLP support from 59 to 53 per cent, and by October 1982, the pendulum had swung firmly in favour of the PNP. The JLP support fell further to 47 per cent, and it never recovered political advantage up to the 1989 election.
The big victory of the PNP in that election was once again followed by early disaffection, as expectations had been aroused by the 'we put people first' slogan of its election campaign. A weak and divided JLP and smooth leadership succession in the PNP mitigated the fallout in the party's popularity and allowed it to win back power in 1993. The persistent divisions in the JLP were to retard the party's electoral viability. For the PNP's part, its non-confrontational style was a contributing factor to it remaining in office.
need for Effective management
While the populace has shown a better understanding of the causes of our economic difficulties, the new administration is expected, very early, to demonstrate effective management of affairs. The Jamaican people will respond if they perceive that their leaders are seriously engaged in working towards economic and social priorities. The promises to show respect, to consult and to be transparent are good signals.
It is patently clear that the JLP Government was crippled by the Dudus-Manatt affair. It lost the people's trust and was overtaken by its arrogance. Because of weakened political leadership, it failed over the last nearly 18 months to implement policy measures agreed with the IMF and other multilateral agencies. And the country's performance in the area of investment has been the worst in decades, accounting substantially for the sputtering recovery from the recession.
The wide margin between the parties in the number of seats won gives a sense of an overwhelming victory that is not in keeping with the popular vote. The margin of victory in many constituencies has, also perhaps, never been thinner and, hence, incumbents will have to work hard to maintain the support of their constituents.
If they are seized of these realities, they must keep in the forefront of their minds what happened to the administrations that emerged from the elections of 1976, 1980 and 2007.
They did not deliver on the promised economic benefits, failed to communicate effectively, were overcome by arrogance, and, ultimately, lost the trust of the people.
Dennis Morrison is an economist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2...cleisure4.html
Published: Sunday | January 8, 2012
Dennis Morrison, Contributor
It is not surprising that supporters of the People's National Party (PNP) would be jubilant at the party's recent historic victory at the polls after its disappointing defeat in September 2007.
In the aftermath of that defeat, the PNP seemed haunted by voter fatigue from its 18 years in office, unprecedented in Jamaica's political history. Judging by the initial outpouring of goodwill for the incoming Golding administration, a two-term spell in Opposition may well have been in the cards, but for the poor performance of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
But party supporters should not get carried away by the massive victory, and nor should the Jamaican electorate entertain wild expectations. In the 35 years between the PNP's landslide electoral victory of December 15, 1976, and the surprisingly big defeat suffered by the JLP in the December 29, 2011 polls, our political parties have, in turn, taken up office with wild expectations that are soon dashed.
This is a reality that should concentrate the minds of Prime Minister Simpson Miller and members of her Cabinet. It is more so the case given the dire economic circumstances facing the country.
By my count, no more than five members of the current Cabinet would have been on the scene when the PNP trounced the JLP in the 1976 election, winning 47 seats to the JLP's 13, and attracting approximately 57 per cent of the popular vote. But with the economy sliding and foreign reserves drying up, the Manley regime turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), creating fissures that undermined the effectiveness of the Government.
disillusioned expectations
By November 1977, it was only a couple of points ahead of the JLP in the Stone polls and never regained popularity in that term. Writing in this newspaper on October 8, 1980, Professor Carl Stone commented on the PNP's demise brought about by the disillusioned expectations of voters after the promises of 1976 melted away as the economy took a sharp turn for the worse. Some say history does not repeat itself, but it at least mirrored itself, as the JLP stormed to power in the 1980 election.
In that watershed election, the JLP captured 51 seats to the PNP's 9, winning 58 per cent of the popular vote. There was great euphoria, and the promise of 'deliverance' created hope that there would be a rapid turnaround in our economic fortunes. But even faster than the PNP, the popularity of the Seaga regime evaporated as it made little headway in the economy, despite massive borrowing from the IMF and freeing up of imports.
The July 1981 Stone poll results showed a six-point slippage in the JLP support from 59 to 53 per cent, and by October 1982, the pendulum had swung firmly in favour of the PNP. The JLP support fell further to 47 per cent, and it never recovered political advantage up to the 1989 election.
The big victory of the PNP in that election was once again followed by early disaffection, as expectations had been aroused by the 'we put people first' slogan of its election campaign. A weak and divided JLP and smooth leadership succession in the PNP mitigated the fallout in the party's popularity and allowed it to win back power in 1993. The persistent divisions in the JLP were to retard the party's electoral viability. For the PNP's part, its non-confrontational style was a contributing factor to it remaining in office.
need for Effective management
While the populace has shown a better understanding of the causes of our economic difficulties, the new administration is expected, very early, to demonstrate effective management of affairs. The Jamaican people will respond if they perceive that their leaders are seriously engaged in working towards economic and social priorities. The promises to show respect, to consult and to be transparent are good signals.
It is patently clear that the JLP Government was crippled by the Dudus-Manatt affair. It lost the people's trust and was overtaken by its arrogance. Because of weakened political leadership, it failed over the last nearly 18 months to implement policy measures agreed with the IMF and other multilateral agencies. And the country's performance in the area of investment has been the worst in decades, accounting substantially for the sputtering recovery from the recession.
The wide margin between the parties in the number of seats won gives a sense of an overwhelming victory that is not in keeping with the popular vote. The margin of victory in many constituencies has, also perhaps, never been thinner and, hence, incumbents will have to work hard to maintain the support of their constituents.
If they are seized of these realities, they must keep in the forefront of their minds what happened to the administrations that emerged from the elections of 1976, 1980 and 2007.
They did not deliver on the promised economic benefits, failed to communicate effectively, were overcome by arrogance, and, ultimately, lost the trust of the people.
Dennis Morrison is an economist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2...cleisure4.html
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