Forward with the business of the country

[Karl]

Forward with the business of the country

ID: INTERACTIVE DIALOGUE
DAVID MULLINGS

Sunday, January 01, 2012


Firstly I must congratulate the majority of my fellow Jamaicans for what seems like the most mature election to be held to date. It seemed that more people openly discussed which party they were voting for and why. The political violence has continued the downward trend and reports of voter intimidation seem to be fewer.

It is a sign of progress when a country can have peaceful elections. This progress is good, but the next five years require additional progress in a number of areas during a challenging period for Jamaica, notwithstanding what else could transpire in the years to come. I admit I get very worried when I think about the impact on oil prices if Iran really does block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping points for oil.

Areas and Targets



The 2012 Doing Business Report published by the World Bank ranked Jamaica 88 out of 183 countries, down from 48 out of 155 countries in 2006. Jamaica also scored worst in the region and 172 out of 183 countries for paying taxes in that report. In 2011, Jamaica ranked 86th out of 182 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index, a far cry from the 2003 ranking of 57th out of 133 countries. For the first time in recent memory, Forbes magazine ranked Jamaica among the 10 worst economies in the world, ranking us at number five but blaming it mostly on the global financial crisis and the hit to tourism revenue (which has not been talked about by the last Government).

According to the national crime statistics, 2010 and 2011 were the first years since 1999 that all crimes were down. This was the result of citizens standing up and refusing to allow their government to be captured by criminals and criminal affiliations, not because of some brilliant crime strategy put forward by the sitting Government. Successive governments have failed to deal with crime, but the people succeeded. However, the new Government has to put in place a plan and execute it, because the clear-up rate for murders in Jamaica is still below 30 per cent after decades. Little has improved that glaring statistic since the late 1990s.

Between 1996/97 and 2002/3 our debt to GDP ratio grew from 71.3 per cent to 124.7 per cent. It has continued growing, now hovering around 130 per cent and in absolute terms it grew from $923 billion in March 2007 to close to $1.6 trillion today, a 60 per cent increase in four years, which looks massive but is in line with the growth of sovereign debt around the world in response to the recession.

To have a reasonable idea of what can be expected over the next five years, one must first consider what we know is going to happen during that time:
1) The Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF ends this year and full repayment is due within three - five years. That means Jamaica must find US$1.24 billion to pay the IMF back by 2017, barring a new arrangement that makes changes.

2) Some of the bonds that were swapped to longer maturities during the JDX will come due within the next five years.

3) The IMF requires the public sector to be reduced to less than 10 per cent of GDP.

4) Cuba is opening up for investment and for business.

5) Oil will not be getting cheaper.

In light of these issues, Jamaica must turn around the rankings I listed earlier, because a stable exchange rate (artificially maintained as it may be) and low inflation alone do not lead to growth and certainly will not generate enough growth to get poverty back to the level of the 2000s nor allow Jamaica to pay back the IMF and JDX bonds without more borrowing.
Perceptions of corruption must decrease. The same political will found to defend criminals must now be found to fight crime so that investors see Jamaica much more favourably; tax reform must take place and efficiency at all levels of government, especially government-owned entities, must be top priority.

This new administration starts out with advantages, especially not having some massive burdens running losses in the name of the government. It also has the disadvantages of rankings that have been going the wrong way for a few years and the difficult task of reversing that trend in a tough global economic environment.

I would not be surprised to see a new IMF deal, an Extended Fund Facility this time instead of a Stand-By Agreement, but time will tell. It is good to see ideas like the Falmouth cruise ship pier, Montego Bay Convention Centre, divesting management of the international airports and the introduction of casinos continue from the PNP administration to a JLP Government. With this new administration I am sure that more ideas with bi-partisan support can be identified and executed with the long-term future of Jamaica in mind, and not merely to win votes in five years.

Finally, I have been very disappointed with the way some Jamaicans have reacted to the laudable and progressive view that the sexual orientation of a person has nothing to do with their ability to run a ministry and contribute to the future of Jamaica. That is not surprising, however.

Those who know better should do better, and while I hope Jamaica makes progress in the areas I previously listed, I also hope that the maturity that has finally come to political debates will also find its way into discourse about prejudice.

Happy New Year and happy birthday to my brother who turns 30 today.

David Mullings was the first Future Leaders Representative for the USA on the Jamaican Diaspora Advisory Board. He can be found on Twitter at twitter.com/davidmullings and Facebook at facebook.com/InteractiveDialogue


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[Karl]

Last lick! - Thou shalt not diss the massive!

Last lick! - Thou shalt not diss the massive!

Franklin Johnston

Friday, January 06, 2012


THE biggest winner in the election is the working class. Election 2011 was not about the IMF or economy; it was class war! The JLP produced an excess of vitriol targeting Portia; a battle between two Jamaicas — uptown, male, Anglicised, airs and affectations; downtown where women rule in a misogynistic society (paradox?) men "vex" but women are "virago"; men "drop licks" women "kibber mout"; men "drop seed all bout" women are "sluts".

The real issues were deep, unsaid and did not solidify for the massive (our people as one) until just before the poll. Manifesto was zilch — JLP would continue, the PNP would review. Slice it, dice it, same difference. I didn't foresee a landslide, but Portia hit a nerve which clarified the campaign trash; the issue was class.

I spoke with Don Anderson in the hardware one day as the uber professional who got it right — the "why" was elusive. Physics explains why a billion grains of sand congregate to make a beach, but why did people vote PNP?

It started as a contest with the JLP ahead, fed by a flow of effective gutter advertising and snobbery; but when the big spend peaked, the gap narrowed. Shock! The tower of filth was so high it toppled on itself.
Neck and neck and in the final metres the verities shifted. My inbox told me a thread of resentment at JLP's Portia adverts grew into a fabric. I did not get the meaning until much later "every jibe at Portia was a blow at the massive"; so convincing that when she spoke — measured, thoughtful — many could not believe.

What, they said she was dumb! So what else is a lie? It was unravelling. Then Portia hit a nerve; parson and JLP went berserk supposedly to help God, but the massive was not in it. After 49 years of unmitigated grief you now diss the "queen" of the disadvantaged? The massive hit back.

This election will be remembered. It stirred emotions like Busta's "small island can't rule us". They know the PNP will cut a slice for the massive even if the cake shrinks. It is the DNA of the party. The massive is risk-averse; faced with a strange man, with strange habits who makes strange decisions and says no to change. Vote with your gut! They gave the JLP a bloody nose "Why are you in politics if not to help the massive? Ignore downtown and you are "dead meat!". This was won in 10 days.

BOTH leaders were virgins — none had led an electoral victory, yet both had held the PM job. They were equals up to the final run. Andrew had the debate edge and I was shocked the gay issue worked well for Portia. My e-mails told me she tapped a vein of tolerance.

This lady got more comfort from Portia than parson. I was in tears. Damn parson! They were close but Portia, buoyed by this late tailwind, was closing on the tape faster than Andrew. Elections are won weeks before; not this one!

LOW voter turnout cannot be dismissed as a global phenomenon. The massive is fair and forgiving, know when people take advantage, defend their own, even in party elections. Some think as Bush Jr ran the US, every clown here can be an MP. Not so! The USA is prosperous, so to run it is relatively easy. We need skilled MPs to build prosperity from scratch. Voter apathy is not the same here as where people get house, child support, health care, education for free.

Why don't we vote? It does not affect our condition! We voted in 15 polls and are poorer than in 1962. Can we fix it? JEEP may save uptown from downtown's despair. We need useful, labour-rich projects and moreso the "Big Idea". More anon.

ELECTION 2011 was like 1962. When I said Portia was more like Busta than Norman you chuckled. We start our second 50 years as our first — a PM with smarts and charisma after a referendum on class. No campaign will ever be like this; or MP elected without his CV and job description; no retreat from the youth agenda; the dawn of a better day for politics!

GOING forward the big picture is key and her majority means Portia can be incisive. Every MP needs to buy into the prerequisites to building prosperity — massive input to education, food, 10 million tourists, export, security — more anon. Government is the catalyst to growth and must lead. It can't be business as usual in the civil service; but it can't be "slash and burn" either; the service needs innovation and missionary managers.

Portia's ministers are crucial as is their top management team. Prosperity is when the massive does well and feels well. The State sets the example in its production and service ministries and investment follows.

THE JLP temporise with special pleading of voter registration. Andrew, a fine young man, not my choice. Will he last? What's his watering hole? He inhaled? What's his brew? The JLP has a basic flaw. Kamina Johnson was praised for the JLP manifesto at its launch, so give her two years to draft JLP philosophy — the party mantra. It is too ectoplasmic to rival the PNP on trust issues. No need to oppose the PNP. If like Social Democrats and Christian Democrats your values are close, use policy as a discriminator. A solid party mantra will build voters' trust.

ANDREW needs a sabbatical. Dr Capildeo (math and physics genius) did so as opposition leader in T&T. An attachment abroad — President Obama, campus or big firm; spend six months abroad during House recesses, get experience and ideas. If not the PNP turks coming from big firms and abroad by the 2016 polls will eat you for breakfast.

THE PNP now have a second chance to make a first impression. Stop the self-referential back-patting which detract from embedded PNP roots in social justice and fairness which carried the massive. Voters who rebated 18 underperforming years and said "take the wheel again" did not do so to please organisers. The 11th is like unto this "do not diss the massive". Selah!

To Portia I gift Nicky Thomas' "Living in the love of the common people". They re-run old innuendoes which imploded; Portia as herself disproved the "dumb blonde"-type tales; so voters asked, "What else is a lie?" It was downhill from there. Granny say "yu see how fambily cuss one a nedder, yu don't try it or dem all tun pan yu an nyam yu!"

The icon "crash programme" is the bane of the middle class but a blessing to the jobless; of course some of the shiftless broom leaners also benefit, as if you keep cow expect to have some ticks. So, my friend, elections are over; wash your face, put away your colours. Next week we will view for the 16th time the hill we climb to prosperity. Life is a bitch! Have a conscious New Year!

Dr Franklin Johnston is a strategy advisor and project manager. franklinjohnstontoo@gmail.com


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[Karl]

The 'Jamaican Queen' takes the road...

The 'Jamaican Queen' takes the road...

Barbara Gloudon


Friday, January 06, 2012

"WHAT is fi-yuh, cyaan be un-fi yuh." So it is not Standard English... so what if it is that dreaded "patwah" which drives some people crazy and strengthens their resolve to rid the nation of all that terrible "bad chatting" which holds us back from taking tea at Buckingham Palace?

Consider well, in which language can you find an expression which is confident enough to say: "What is yours cannot be not yours". That sound pyah-pyah eeh? There we go again, lapsing into the vernacular. Like it or not, however, it is the voice of that part of the society which made its power known last week, changing the heartbeat of the nation in the process.

Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller at the PNP annual conference in 2011




Every pundit has been toiling through the night trying to find the appropriate scientific explanation for what happened on December 29, 2011. In certain quarters, the puzzle to be solved was, why so few saw the train coming? Portia had been banished to the periphery to which she had been relegated since '07. How could she possibly become the star of the moment all of a sudden? She's not even young. Wasn't this supposed to be "yute time now"? Old people (anybody over 30) "shoulda did tek weh demself long time". But, instead, here they are, taking back the reins of leadership, from a much-vaunted younger generation. Another example of old age and treachery overcoming youth and skill?

The harsh truth is that one woman has triumphed over seemingly impossible odds, and, with the help of a well-organised team of strategists, has managed to confound the pollsters and naysayers. What is strange about this particular time is that so few could honestly say that they knew what was to come. Did anybody really anticipate a 42:21 scorecard? How come?

Writers of letters to the media have taken the opportunity to unleash a torrent of blame at the feet of the losers. Charges of arrogance, disrespect, insensitivity and more has been levelled at the 'Yute' brigade which led the charge, but that will pass...

Insult is being added to injury, salt is being rubbed into the wounds because we don't like losers, especially when the expectation of victory was as high as the cost of taking well-wishers on a round-the-island outing, among other things. With hindsight, it is now being asked, was the same effort expended on seeing that the joy-riders had been enu-merated? Who ensured that they were eligible to vote and did go out on Election Day?

THE GREATEST TALKING POINT of all though, is the victor — already dubbed the Personality of the Year, the woman whose slightest slip of the tongue, the smallest sign of vulnerability, drew the scorn of the self-appointed arbiters of the elevated little finger, who did not hesitate to delete her from their social register. They reckoned without her stamina and determination.

And now, lo and behold, here she is, returning once more to make, not only political, but gender history -- first woman in Jamaican history to bear the title of prime minister, not once, but twice. Never mind the argument about whether she is the seventh PM in her second term, or whatever, she is back in power again. She will find her administration strapped for cash to care for the many who are already making it clear that they anticipate jobs, especially for the 'yute'. Roads must be fixed, education improved, the health service made healthy, security made even more secure, and we want all that and more as soon as possible.

It's not an easy road ahead but the "Jamaican Queen" has trod it before. Only a fool would forget lessons painfully learned in the past. This Queen is not fool-fool, nor are the members of the high-powered team which quietly carried out the strategies leading to victory. A real challenge is how to keep the people loyal. Jamaica people have become more confident. They are not afraid to speak out, and speak they will when they're ready. Anyone who ignores them, does so at their peril.

ONE OF THE BEST recommendations I've heard so far comes from a highly-respected, experienced, now-retired professional in a much-needed field of expertise, who would like to commend to the attention of the new administration, that there are persons like himself who are prepared to volunteer their skill and expertise in areas where there is need. He spoke, in particular, of the area of health, but said he knew there were other fields -- education, for example -- where retirees are also prepared to assist, if required. This is not a new concept. This time, however, will it be accepted and put to use?

Before young people get the idea that this will deprive them of employment, the proposer of the "volunteer brigade" was quick to point out that so great is the need, that there is enough to go around. The only loss which would accrue is the nation's refusal or inability to make use of such resources.

OTHER PERSONS are talking about ways of strengthening communities for mutual assistance, particularly in rural areas. Jamaica is never short of ideas. Instead of just chat-bout, though, why not seize the opportunities?
If you see a hand waving at the back of the class, it's me, trying to get in my two-cents. "Me, me teacher... hear my idea. What are we going to do with all that mined-out bauxite land? Is it true that the companies (some, maybe all) are not honouring commitments to us? Are they returning to restart operations, or will we continue to live in hope and die in starvation?" There's a lot we have to discuss.

Another big question I've heard is, why aren't we doing more to help ourselves to be more self-sufficient? How much do we spend on importation of corn and other products for animal feed, imported with costly hard currency? Many persons are asking, what is to prevent us from growing corn and other suitable crops, and why can't we process them here? All we seem to do is chat and chat about attracting investors, ignoring the fact that they're all over in China, India and the rest of Cheap Labour Land. What if they don't hear us? What are we going to do?

FLASH BACK to the 1980 newspaper files, immediately after that election. See the photos of the men in the three-piece polyester suits of the day, trooping across the tarmac, beneath the banner headlines: "THE INVESTORS ARE HERE!"

Read on... See how quickly they left again. Are we ready for another round of disillusionment? You mean we really cannot do anything for ourselves? Joke done. New times call for new action. Let's get going.

gloudonb@yahoo.com


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[Sir X]

Dis bredda sound like me ?

1) The Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF ends this year and full repayment is due within three - five years. That means Jamaica must find US$1.24 billion to pay the IMF back by 2017, barring a new arrangement that makes changes.

2) Some of the bonds that were swapped to longer maturities during the JDX will come due within the next five years.

3) The IMF requires the public sector to be reduced to less than 10 per cent of GDP.

4) Cuba is opening up for investment and for business.

5) Oil will not be getting cheaper.

low inflation alone do not lead to growth and certainly will not generate enough growth to get poverty back to the level of the 2000s nor allow Jamaica to pay back the IMF and JDX bonds without more borrowing.
Perceptions of corruption must decrease. The same political will found to defend criminals must now be found to fight crime so that investors see Jamaica much more favourably; tax reform must take place and efficiency at all levels of government, especially government-owned entities, must be top priority.

[Willi]

Basket fi carry water?

[Sir X]

Not even dat.

[Muadib]

DM ah lick out gainst Don2

<Between 1996/97 and 2002/3 our debt to GDP ratio grew from 71.3 per cent to 124.7 per cent. It has continued growing, now hovering around 130 per cent and in absolute terms it grew from $923 billion in March 2007 to close to $1.6 trillion today, a 60 per cent increase in four years, which looks massive but is in line with the growth of sovereign debt around the world in response to the recession.>

Household squabble... deal wid him case Don2 !

Di man juss a fling ice watah one ah yuh long standing red herring argument..

[Sir X]

Which is what the JLP didnt have a clue and was continuing a proven course of failure set by the PNP.

Borrowing debt to service debt, it has to be repaid,the economic mask is off.Incidentally the PNP plan it seems is to continue the said plan in its new government.

[Muadib]

JLP did not have a clue because they were in line with Global Trends OR

PNP did not have a clue starting with cayliss liberalization leading to FINSAC followed by 'run wid it' resulting in huge debt crisis going into a recession where multilateral borrowing is a global requirement ? (ask Ireland)

Look like yuh want to blame di man dat haffi carry di water in a basket raddah dan di man dan wheh fling whe di pan and replace it wid di basket..

I wonder what is the root of your rather warped analysis.. yuh and Don1 did guh di same stats class at the Intellectual Ghetto ?

[Sir X]

Look man the card of absolving your party of blame has been debunked by all under the sun,the most recent time was last year december.

I make excuses for none when it comes to incompetence,fools dont suffer lightly under my whip,and i sure as hell dont give them any quarter.

You can continue to do so at your and your nations peril.

[Muadib]

policies.. list the failed ones, who advocated them and why and be thus guided.

It really is not that hard.. ask Barbados.

I can do no more for you.

[Karl]

Basket fi carry water?

Was there puppa-licka on this board claiming that JDX exchange had no downside?

[Muadib]

what was the option ?

net effect.. lets try that approach rather than your disingenuous approach.

reckless liberalization and then run wid it (intentionally create a problem then try and fix it).. please explain these actions.

Thanks in advance.

[Sir X]

Low interest rates etc , and not a clue on how to make the most of it,I argued with the clowns and they cursed me as having achieved a miracle.

-GDP persisted !...not a clue ...they went to the IMF for 1.3 billion to pay off debt on top of debt ...one joker a bawl bout increase tourism arrivals ,Butch himself said dont look to me as your main source of forgein exchange, do more for your exporters, they sat and twiddled thumbs because they had the solution,slash and borrow from the IMF?....clueless nothing innovative , a policy that has been implemented and proven to be a failure from the 80s, ...so they excuse it its a global recesion, tell that to panama, c.rica & cuba all have gdp growth 4 times that of jamaica....in a global recession ?...but they will excuse it away even further , playing the blame game ..the pnp did this to us ...o.k so what innovative programs are you doing to chart a new course ? ....again silence , we hear whispers of the IMF .....Finally kicked out by the people as frauds, clueless , who instead of campaigning on their merits , choose to campaign on classist / personalities ?......madness again clueless !.

So we get a new P.M , 1st thing she does is promise the people the same B.S , a 20 man cabinet and a crash/cash program?....more of the same , loans or debt has to be paid back in 3 to 5 years.

Innovative thinking would be to say , PEOPLE WI BRUK, WI CAAAN BORROW DEBT FI PAY OFF DEBT !, WI CAAN MORTGAGE WI FUTURE , IMF IS LIKE A BANK WITH HIGH INTEREST LOANS...MEK WI BUCKLE WI BELT and export/innovate wi self out of it , I am prepared to pay the political price !

LEADERSHIP THAT WE DONT HAVE !.THE ECONOMIC MASK IS OFF !

[Karl]

Which is what the JLP didnt have a clue and was continuing a proven course of failure set by the PNP.

Borrowing debt to service debt, it has to be repaid,the economic mask is off.Incidentally the PNP plan it seems is to continue the said plan in its new government.

Unfortunately that reality of borrowing to assist in repaying debt must...must continue...

The key is managing 'finances' such that debt grows at a slower rate - -such that income has a chance to 'catch up' - and that 'rapid' increase in economic activity ['rapid' always being as is possible at optimum rates within the always current circumstance(s)] ...all for growing wealth of each citizen/all citizens and country.

There is just no way around it unless there is a 'death wish' on the part of our leaders and our people. The JLP failed to understand (see: Seaga and his 1980's growth and the last JLP government's repeat of 'improving' numbers driven below the proverty-line as occurred during Seaga's 'growth years' ) this.