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Why the JLP lost
Political commentators Paul Ashley and Troy Caine weigh in
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Sunday Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Sunday, January 01, 2012
Sunday Observer asked two of the country's political analysts to weigh in on discussions surrounding the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) crushing electoral defeat on Thursday.
Political historian, Troy Caine pointed to the following as factors that led to the JLP'S demise:
(L-R) CAINE... the JLP never got their voters out, that is what accrued to the very low turn out of voters. ASHLEY... the JLP was not prepared for the election and paid little attention to the enumeration process
1/3 
Delayed election
According to Caine, everything was ripe for Holness to anounce the holding of elections much earlier than December 29 and to delay the election until the publication of the November 30 voters list.
"Unless you are pretty sure that a great majority of these people are going to support you, then politically it really doesn't add up to much. All the other leaders as soon as they are ready to call an election, all they want to know is that the electoral office is ready," he said.
"When Mrs Simpson Miller called the election in 2007, it was in September, the voters list used was the one for May 2007, so that means all those other voters who were registered from April to September were unable to vote but there werent any complaints.
No one likes Christmas polls
"I thought that even at conference it was not that late to call the election, and to make sure that the election was out of the way before Christmas, I think that augured against the Jamaica Labour Party because no election in our past has been held in that week. We have had five other elections in December since 1944 and all of them took place in the second or third week of December.
JLP couldn't get voters out
"The JLP never got their voters out, that is what accrued to the very low turn out of voters and that resulted in the lowest turn out of voters in the history of elections between the two main parties," he added. Caine said lack of experience played a role here, since there seemed to be heavy spending on advertising and pre-election campaigns, which may have affected how much was left to spend on election day to get the voters out and take care of the party's workers.
PNP targetted marginal seats
Caine emphasized that the PNP employed a good tactic in targeting the marginal seats. The JLP lost some seats which were traditional JLP seats such as Ernest Smith's in St Ann. Chris Tufton barely won his seat despite winning it in 2007 by 1,800 votes.
According to Caine, all the pollsters and the pundits including Don Anderson were wrong with this one because as it turned out it was a wide result, everybody predicted a very close election.
"The incredible thing is that in spite of a 19 seat margin the fact is that that worked out to 65 to 35 per cent in terms of the share of the seats, but in terms of majority votes there was a difference of just over 57,000 in the votes cast for the two major parties."
There is no 'I' in 'team'
Caine also weighed in on suggestions that Holness focused too much on himself. "Andrew — and that came out a lot in the discussions — focused too much on 'I'. That factor played out in 2007 when Portia placed too much emphasis on herself in that campaign. Bruce Golding spoke more of the party and what other people in the party were doing, you really weren't hearing that from Andrew," said Caine.
For Attourney and policitical commentator Dr Paul Ashley these factors contributed to the JLP's misfortune.
Bruce Golding
"On his re-entry to the JLP, Bruce Golding brought in some interventions that spoke to good governance. This was substantially higher than what existed and had attractive elements for example term limits, accountability, transparency. Those were very good words, very noble ideals. The campaign was brilliant, he himself raised public expectations of government to a new level. But realty crept in on assuming office, It seemed that Golding, in the attempt to gain political office promised things to everyone and on assuming office was unable to deliver. Therefore there was an increasingly widening gap between rhetoric and reality.
The language used at the Labour Party conference by Bruce Golding was also damaging, as he suggested that what he had done by his resignation was a master stroke. He described himself as a master strategist who devised a plan, and using his words, under that plan he would now create a situation where the chief scorer (Andrew Holness) would take the ball to the net. Apparently he (Golding) was still on the field playing. The strategy claimed by Bruce was rejected and was a contemptuous strategy. It assumed that by changing one man and leaving everything else in place the Jamaican people would vote for the JLP, and would suddenly forget all the damage caused by Bruce Golding, and now Prince Holness would emerge untainted, unaffected to save the day.
Dudus Extradition
"In the Dudus extradition saga, Bruce Golding committed what could be termed political suicide, as what was revealed was not only inconsistent and insincere but as KD Knight termed it, he was pathologically mendacious. The Tivoli incursion affected the base of the party as the instructions to invade came from a Bruce Golding led Jamaica Labour Party. The killing of the 73 people as well as the killing of Keith Clarke in his own home in front of his wife and child remains unaccounted for. This is under the regime of a man who promised accountability, transparency, you name it".
JLP Unpreparedness
The JLP was not prepared for the election and paid little attention to the enumeration process. Holness was in a quandary whether or not to call the election this year. Holness was facing a problem, as if he had used the old voters list he would disenfranchise 40,000 plus voters who it was said were primarily youth, but on the other hand it was the PNP which did most of the work to get these people. Holness called it too early. The elections were called to vote himself out of office, It was better to lose after 12 months than to lose after two months in office. Because when he lose after two months he will have no record to go on as prime minister.
Holness' sheen rubbed off
Holness was placed there to win the election as quickly as possible as the bitter medicine he spoke of was on its way. So the thing was to go to the election and then proceed with the drastic cuts in the civil service etc. The rise in the popularity of Holness was not as a result of Holness himself but it was that people were happy to see the back of Golding. Holness promised too much continuity and was unable to establish himself as being different from Bruce Golding. In addition to that he placed too much emphasis on himself. I grew up here, I went to school there I and I and I.
Campaign Blunders
In the election the elements and symbols that assisted in the demise of Bruce Golding reared their heads on the platform. They included threats against civil servants, getting into needless fights with the media. They (the JLP) demonstrated all the symptoms of old style politics in crisis. Anybody who criticized you was against you.
The JLP was of the view that they were dealing with the stereotypical view of Portia. The fact is Mrs Portia Simpson Miller has benefited tremendously from her years in Opposition as well as from the experience she had in government. It was now between 'Mama P' (Simpson Miller) and 'Baby Bruce' (Andrew Holness) and 'Baby Bruce' had nothing to go on, he had to refer to what 'Papa Bruce' ( Bruce Golding) did. 'Mama P' knew her people, she connected and identified with the suffering and pressures inflicted on the hopeless affected masses. How you doing very well and more people out of work? Who cares about this macro economic stability, who cares about some GDP ratios being maintained. Who cares when stability means that you have stabilised poverty and unemployment. The hard economic reality kicked in. At the same time, JEEP, which was proposed as a temporary solution by the PNP, was ridiculed.
Lack of funding
"...The ponzi scheme and other sources dried up. It meant that you could not go to the same sources again to promise what you didn't deliver. Funding became extremely difficult. The cost of the vote also went up, because of the effects of the recession and the decrease in the size of remittances as well as the fact that people had no jobs. Whereas you could buy a vote for probably ten grand it moved to 15.
Global anti-incumbency
"The effects of the economic crisis is having an impact on incumbents across the world. When things are hard you blame the government as people believe the government is supposed to provide for your well being. The Government didn't provide the jobs, nor had the resources to provide the social net for those who were displaced.
The Youth Vote
"Youth are more impatient than older people. There is a large body of frustrated youth who didn't see a way out and didn't accept the labour party's message about problems in Greece and elsewhere and were therefore told to be thankful even when they didn't have jobs and when education did not give them the social mobility they were told about.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz1iCuPhxbv
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Sunday Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Sunday, January 01, 2012
Sunday Observer asked two of the country's political analysts to weigh in on discussions surrounding the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) crushing electoral defeat on Thursday.
Political historian, Troy Caine pointed to the following as factors that led to the JLP'S demise:
(L-R) CAINE... the JLP never got their voters out, that is what accrued to the very low turn out of voters. ASHLEY... the JLP was not prepared for the election and paid little attention to the enumeration process 1/3 Delayed election
According to Caine, everything was ripe for Holness to anounce the holding of elections much earlier than December 29 and to delay the election until the publication of the November 30 voters list.
"Unless you are pretty sure that a great majority of these people are going to support you, then politically it really doesn't add up to much. All the other leaders as soon as they are ready to call an election, all they want to know is that the electoral office is ready," he said.
"When Mrs Simpson Miller called the election in 2007, it was in September, the voters list used was the one for May 2007, so that means all those other voters who were registered from April to September were unable to vote but there werent any complaints.
No one likes Christmas polls
"I thought that even at conference it was not that late to call the election, and to make sure that the election was out of the way before Christmas, I think that augured against the Jamaica Labour Party because no election in our past has been held in that week. We have had five other elections in December since 1944 and all of them took place in the second or third week of December.
JLP couldn't get voters out
"The JLP never got their voters out, that is what accrued to the very low turn out of voters and that resulted in the lowest turn out of voters in the history of elections between the two main parties," he added. Caine said lack of experience played a role here, since there seemed to be heavy spending on advertising and pre-election campaigns, which may have affected how much was left to spend on election day to get the voters out and take care of the party's workers.
PNP targetted marginal seats
Caine emphasized that the PNP employed a good tactic in targeting the marginal seats. The JLP lost some seats which were traditional JLP seats such as Ernest Smith's in St Ann. Chris Tufton barely won his seat despite winning it in 2007 by 1,800 votes.
According to Caine, all the pollsters and the pundits including Don Anderson were wrong with this one because as it turned out it was a wide result, everybody predicted a very close election.
"The incredible thing is that in spite of a 19 seat margin the fact is that that worked out to 65 to 35 per cent in terms of the share of the seats, but in terms of majority votes there was a difference of just over 57,000 in the votes cast for the two major parties."
There is no 'I' in 'team'
Caine also weighed in on suggestions that Holness focused too much on himself. "Andrew — and that came out a lot in the discussions — focused too much on 'I'. That factor played out in 2007 when Portia placed too much emphasis on herself in that campaign. Bruce Golding spoke more of the party and what other people in the party were doing, you really weren't hearing that from Andrew," said Caine.
For Attourney and policitical commentator Dr Paul Ashley these factors contributed to the JLP's misfortune.
Bruce Golding
"On his re-entry to the JLP, Bruce Golding brought in some interventions that spoke to good governance. This was substantially higher than what existed and had attractive elements for example term limits, accountability, transparency. Those were very good words, very noble ideals. The campaign was brilliant, he himself raised public expectations of government to a new level. But realty crept in on assuming office, It seemed that Golding, in the attempt to gain political office promised things to everyone and on assuming office was unable to deliver. Therefore there was an increasingly widening gap between rhetoric and reality.
The language used at the Labour Party conference by Bruce Golding was also damaging, as he suggested that what he had done by his resignation was a master stroke. He described himself as a master strategist who devised a plan, and using his words, under that plan he would now create a situation where the chief scorer (Andrew Holness) would take the ball to the net. Apparently he (Golding) was still on the field playing. The strategy claimed by Bruce was rejected and was a contemptuous strategy. It assumed that by changing one man and leaving everything else in place the Jamaican people would vote for the JLP, and would suddenly forget all the damage caused by Bruce Golding, and now Prince Holness would emerge untainted, unaffected to save the day.
Dudus Extradition
"In the Dudus extradition saga, Bruce Golding committed what could be termed political suicide, as what was revealed was not only inconsistent and insincere but as KD Knight termed it, he was pathologically mendacious. The Tivoli incursion affected the base of the party as the instructions to invade came from a Bruce Golding led Jamaica Labour Party. The killing of the 73 people as well as the killing of Keith Clarke in his own home in front of his wife and child remains unaccounted for. This is under the regime of a man who promised accountability, transparency, you name it".
JLP Unpreparedness
The JLP was not prepared for the election and paid little attention to the enumeration process. Holness was in a quandary whether or not to call the election this year. Holness was facing a problem, as if he had used the old voters list he would disenfranchise 40,000 plus voters who it was said were primarily youth, but on the other hand it was the PNP which did most of the work to get these people. Holness called it too early. The elections were called to vote himself out of office, It was better to lose after 12 months than to lose after two months in office. Because when he lose after two months he will have no record to go on as prime minister.
Holness' sheen rubbed off
Holness was placed there to win the election as quickly as possible as the bitter medicine he spoke of was on its way. So the thing was to go to the election and then proceed with the drastic cuts in the civil service etc. The rise in the popularity of Holness was not as a result of Holness himself but it was that people were happy to see the back of Golding. Holness promised too much continuity and was unable to establish himself as being different from Bruce Golding. In addition to that he placed too much emphasis on himself. I grew up here, I went to school there I and I and I.
Campaign Blunders
In the election the elements and symbols that assisted in the demise of Bruce Golding reared their heads on the platform. They included threats against civil servants, getting into needless fights with the media. They (the JLP) demonstrated all the symptoms of old style politics in crisis. Anybody who criticized you was against you.
The JLP was of the view that they were dealing with the stereotypical view of Portia. The fact is Mrs Portia Simpson Miller has benefited tremendously from her years in Opposition as well as from the experience she had in government. It was now between 'Mama P' (Simpson Miller) and 'Baby Bruce' (Andrew Holness) and 'Baby Bruce' had nothing to go on, he had to refer to what 'Papa Bruce' ( Bruce Golding) did. 'Mama P' knew her people, she connected and identified with the suffering and pressures inflicted on the hopeless affected masses. How you doing very well and more people out of work? Who cares about this macro economic stability, who cares about some GDP ratios being maintained. Who cares when stability means that you have stabilised poverty and unemployment. The hard economic reality kicked in. At the same time, JEEP, which was proposed as a temporary solution by the PNP, was ridiculed.
Lack of funding
"...The ponzi scheme and other sources dried up. It meant that you could not go to the same sources again to promise what you didn't deliver. Funding became extremely difficult. The cost of the vote also went up, because of the effects of the recession and the decrease in the size of remittances as well as the fact that people had no jobs. Whereas you could buy a vote for probably ten grand it moved to 15.
Global anti-incumbency
"The effects of the economic crisis is having an impact on incumbents across the world. When things are hard you blame the government as people believe the government is supposed to provide for your well being. The Government didn't provide the jobs, nor had the resources to provide the social net for those who were displaced.
The Youth Vote
"Youth are more impatient than older people. There is a large body of frustrated youth who didn't see a way out and didn't accept the labour party's message about problems in Greece and elsewhere and were therefore told to be thankful even when they didn't have jobs and when education did not give them the social mobility they were told about.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz1iCuPhxbv
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