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No party any better than the other, say most undecided voters
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
ONE University of the West Indies lecturer is predicting a voter turnout of between 71 and 76 per cent come election day Thursday.
Anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle says his survey team has produced a 'snapshot' study based on a canvass of 480 poor, near-poor, upper and middle-class men and women from rural and urban Jamaica.
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The study considered the opinions of some persons in rural Jamaica over the age of 35, and some from urban town centres who between the ages 18 to 34.
The survey was conducted December 14 to 19, this year and took into account 56 constituencies across all parishes.
Two questions were posed:
1. Are you going to vote this election?
- If No, why not?
- If Yes, answer #2:
2.When you go to vote this election, what will be your main motivation? (Respondents could not select more than three options).
a. The party
b. The party leader
c. The candidate
d. Issues/policies
e. Gifts or money or the promise of any
f. Other
According to Dr Gayle, the results were divided into two sections: Why persons cannot, or may not vote, and why they are likely to vote. The researcher explained that, "though it was not requested, most persons gave tremendous details to support their decision."
According to the Gayle research team data, 340 of the 480 persons surveyed, said they will vote come Thursday. It estimated the highest possible voter turnout as being 76 per cent -- if all voter-motivating factors are held ceteris paribus (if nothing changes).
However, it could fall below 71 per cent given the fact that a number of persons who expressed an intention to vote may decide against doing so on the actual day.
"Almost a quarter (24 per cent or 140 of the respondents) either cannot vote or have expressed that it is highly likely that they will not vote in the upcoming elections. Five percent of respondents are still undecided at this stage; but represent those who are likely to vote if something changes," the anthropologist said.
Twenty-six persons expressed that they may make up their minds before the poll, (10 days away at the time of the survey) but they were hesitant to make a firm decision.
Eight of these persons were waiting to hear how the parties will address the economy: "How dem going to pay back the $1.6 trillion (loaned by the IMF) or make ordinary people feed dem children."
Six said they were JLP "but do not trust Andrew (Holness); five said they were PNP, "but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller); six said "none of the parties better", and a single respondent said he/she did not like his/her MP.
"Ten of these persons are poor, nine are near poor, and seven are middle and upper classes; 17 are females, nine are males; 11, urban, 15, rural. The most distinct difference here is therefore gender -- women clearly dominate this small group -- wanting to vote, but waiting for something to convince them," was Dr Gayle's analysis.
One hundred and fifteen persons surveyed who are on the voters list and, therefore, have a vote, said they won't take advantage of the opportunity.
This is the critical group to assess, said Dr Gayle, noting that "It is made up of all the persons who have not expressed that they will be voting (140) minus those who are not on the voters list (25 or 18 per cent of this group).
"By removing those who cannot vote, we are able to assess the major 'turn off' factors. It is important to note that a number of those who are not on the voters list are in that situation because they had little or no interest. Nonetheless, we have no clear data to assess the proportion, hence, the entire number of those who cannot vote (not on the voters list) are dropped from this analysis," said the anthropologist.
Forty-nine per cent said they won't exercise their franchise because "None of the parties is any better". Fifteen per cent said "I am JLP, but don't trust Andrew (Holness)". Eight per cent said " I am PNP but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller). Eight per cent gave no reason for not voting. Seven per cent said they were still waiting for policy solutions. Seven per cent said "My party is too corrupt". Two per cent said they do not like their MP. Two per cent blamed the ruling party's young affiliate group for their decision, saying, "I am a JLP, but scared of G2K's direction". Another two per cent pointed to voter intimidation, saying they "fear to vote against party in garrison".
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz1hjZWvc7r
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
ONE University of the West Indies lecturer is predicting a voter turnout of between 71 and 76 per cent come election day Thursday.
Anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle says his survey team has produced a 'snapshot' study based on a canvass of 480 poor, near-poor, upper and middle-class men and women from rural and urban Jamaica.
1/1
The study considered the opinions of some persons in rural Jamaica over the age of 35, and some from urban town centres who between the ages 18 to 34.
The survey was conducted December 14 to 19, this year and took into account 56 constituencies across all parishes.
Two questions were posed:
1. Are you going to vote this election?
- If No, why not?
- If Yes, answer #2:
2.When you go to vote this election, what will be your main motivation? (Respondents could not select more than three options).
a. The party
b. The party leader
c. The candidate
d. Issues/policies
e. Gifts or money or the promise of any
f. Other
According to Dr Gayle, the results were divided into two sections: Why persons cannot, or may not vote, and why they are likely to vote. The researcher explained that, "though it was not requested, most persons gave tremendous details to support their decision."
According to the Gayle research team data, 340 of the 480 persons surveyed, said they will vote come Thursday. It estimated the highest possible voter turnout as being 76 per cent -- if all voter-motivating factors are held ceteris paribus (if nothing changes).
However, it could fall below 71 per cent given the fact that a number of persons who expressed an intention to vote may decide against doing so on the actual day.
"Almost a quarter (24 per cent or 140 of the respondents) either cannot vote or have expressed that it is highly likely that they will not vote in the upcoming elections. Five percent of respondents are still undecided at this stage; but represent those who are likely to vote if something changes," the anthropologist said.
Twenty-six persons expressed that they may make up their minds before the poll, (10 days away at the time of the survey) but they were hesitant to make a firm decision.
Eight of these persons were waiting to hear how the parties will address the economy: "How dem going to pay back the $1.6 trillion (loaned by the IMF) or make ordinary people feed dem children."
Six said they were JLP "but do not trust Andrew (Holness); five said they were PNP, "but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller); six said "none of the parties better", and a single respondent said he/she did not like his/her MP.
"Ten of these persons are poor, nine are near poor, and seven are middle and upper classes; 17 are females, nine are males; 11, urban, 15, rural. The most distinct difference here is therefore gender -- women clearly dominate this small group -- wanting to vote, but waiting for something to convince them," was Dr Gayle's analysis.
One hundred and fifteen persons surveyed who are on the voters list and, therefore, have a vote, said they won't take advantage of the opportunity.
This is the critical group to assess, said Dr Gayle, noting that "It is made up of all the persons who have not expressed that they will be voting (140) minus those who are not on the voters list (25 or 18 per cent of this group).
"By removing those who cannot vote, we are able to assess the major 'turn off' factors. It is important to note that a number of those who are not on the voters list are in that situation because they had little or no interest. Nonetheless, we have no clear data to assess the proportion, hence, the entire number of those who cannot vote (not on the voters list) are dropped from this analysis," said the anthropologist.
Forty-nine per cent said they won't exercise their franchise because "None of the parties is any better". Fifteen per cent said "I am JLP, but don't trust Andrew (Holness)". Eight per cent said " I am PNP but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller). Eight per cent gave no reason for not voting. Seven per cent said they were still waiting for policy solutions. Seven per cent said "My party is too corrupt". Two per cent said they do not like their MP. Two per cent blamed the ruling party's young affiliate group for their decision, saying, "I am a JLP, but scared of G2K's direction". Another two per cent pointed to voter intimidation, saying they "fear to vote against party in garrison".
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz1hjZWvc7r