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  • No precise growth, debt forecasts in PNP manifesto

    No precise growth, debt forecasts in PNP manifesto

    Published: Friday | December 16, 2011 2 Comments


    People's National Party Chairman Robert Pickersgill (left) with chairman of the Manifesto Committee, Dr Omar Davies (centre), and General Secretary Peter Bunting following the launch of the party's 2011 policy manual at the Wyndham hotel, New Kingston, on Wednesday. - Norman Grindley/Chief Photographer





    Steven Jackson, Business Reporter The Parliamentary Opposition People's National [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]Party[/COLOR][/COLOR] (PNP) has avoided outlining any specific growth or debt projections to underpin its economic strategies if it wins the upcoming general election, and thus does not [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]mirror[/COLOR][/COLOR] the traditional stance in previous policy manuals or other public statements.
    In its manifesto, entitled 'People Power: Leading the Agenda for Progressive Change', the party concedes that its economic plans were constrained by the "global uncertainty and the absence of full information from the present administration about the extent of Jamaica's challenges and commitments".
    The 68-page document, however, addresses how the party would steer the country out of its economic difficulties. This, the PNP said, would be predicated primarily on a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]deal[/COLOR][/COLOR], undisclosed reductions in energy [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]costs[/COLOR][/COLOR] augmented by the prioritisation of a US$1.5-billion upgrade of the Petrojam oil refinery in Kingston, an effective US$100-million slash in the import bill over five years, tax reform, and a bauxite sector rebound.
    The IMF deal, it said, would place emphasis on stability, growth and development, and tax reform would entail broadening the tax base. "An integral part of this reform is the broadening of the tax net and the revamping of the incentives regime as a tool to stimulate growth," the document states.
    According to the manifesto, the focal point of the PNP administration would be to grow the economy, but the party outlined no projections or estimates. "We are confident that we have the right mix of policies to jump-start the economy in an environment of stable prices," it said. "These initiatives should provide the [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]jobs[/COLOR][/COLOR] in the numbers needed, reduce poverty levels at a more acceptable pace and improve the quality of life for our people".
    The growth target set in the PNP's 2002 manifesto was two to four per cent in the medium term and six per cent thereafter. The 2007 manifesto avoided the topic, but at its launch before general election that year, the party reportedly revealed a six to seven per cent annual growth target.
    Opposition spokesman on finance, Dr Peter Philips, was not reached by telephone for comment.
    According to the policy manual, the overarching sectors to reposition the economy for growth would include energy as well as information and communication technology (ICT). The rapid escalation in the price of oil since 2006, the PNP argues, has adversely affected the Jamaican economy and its product competitiveness, especially within the bauxite sector.
    "The re-engineering and retrofitting of the Petrojam oil refinery at an approximate cost of some US$1.5 billion will be a priority," it said. "The administration will leverage its relationship with the Venezuelan state-owned petroleum company, Petroleum of Venezuela (PDVSA), and create a joint-venture partnership to access equity and debt financing, hence preventing any need for the GOJ (Government of Jamaica) to provide a sovereign debt guarantee. A revamped refinery will also enable provision of cleaner diesel fuel at a much lower cost. It will also allow for the separation of petcoke, the cheapest fuel for electricity generation," the PNP said in the document.
    According to the document, a PNP administration would stimulate local food production and thereby reduce food imports by US$20 million a year.
    "The annual food import bill of US$800 million provides an indication of the possibility of simultaneously saving foreign exchange and increasing output from agro-processing activities. A conservative target of the next administration is to reduce the import bill by US$20 million per year over the next five years. At the same time, the administration will establish a formal mechanism to promote such linkages between the tourism, manufacturing and agricultural sectors," it explained.
    The party outlined 18 steps to achieve full people empowerment, including the introduction of new legislation to impact positively on doing business in Jamaica, and renewing the focus on facilitating small and medium-size enterprises "which make the greatest contribution to economic growth and employment".
    According to the manifesto, "The PNP is mindful of the economic challenges, both global and domestic, and recognises that there will be limited options within which to manoeuvre. However, in developing the path to domestic recovery, the PNP administration will exploit, to the fullest, its relationships with emerging economic blocs".
    steven.jackson@gleanerjm.com
    • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

  • #2
    LOL....Wha kina foolfool headline dat...

    Who ave crystal ball fi projek dem ting dere inna dis yah time?? Man cyaan even projek dem ting dere fi di nex quarter ...much more fi years to come...ah wha dis Faada

    Dem projekshan deh wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on...
    TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

    Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

    D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

    Comment


    • #3
      so what you say? There should be no projection in this environment, right.
      • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

      Comment


      • #4
        I wondered the same thing?!?


        BLACK LIVES MATTER

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Don1 View Post
          LOL....Wha kina foolfool headline dat...

          Who ave crystal ball fi projek dem ting dere inna dis yah time?? Man cyaan even projek dem ting dere fi di nex quarter ...much more fi years to come...ah wha dis Faada

          Dem projekshan deh wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on...
          My thoughts exactly.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Assasin View Post
            so what you say? There should be no projection in this environment, right.
            I'm saying such a projection would be worthless...if you find projections into an abyss comforting...run.. no..jump wid it
            TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

            Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

            D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

            Comment


            • #7
              No economist would take such a document without projection serious. The PNP is talking about growth but have no idea and no target????

              It nuh matter how bad the time is people still have to make projection, if external forces changes then they can update that. They have no idea how much growth their so call growth policy is going to result in? not even a minimal number!!! The least they could do is put a range and a time frame.
              • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

              Comment


              • #8
                ok economist...LOL

                While you're pontificating please take note of the projections on "growth" and "jobs, jobs, jobs," made by both tribes in 2007.... I guess you took those (at a minimum the JLP numbers for sure) "seriously"... don't?? LOL
                TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

                Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

                D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

                Comment


                • #9
                  There should be projects given the information you have..run a simulation against different scenarios and choose the likley one based on economic indicators...That when you say growth will be between 5-7% because you are making adjustments for changes in the economy...And since the PNP seem like they are so ready to renogiate every contract..it shudn't be a problem to build a forecast based on how they view the economy and how they want it to grow

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The fact is they didn't deliver on that that promise of Jobs Jobs Jobs, but that shouldn't stop serious people who from making projections.

                    What serious company or institution you could get away with that???
                    • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ...ok boss.. let's send out the SOS for the "Precise Growth & Debt Forecasts" LOL
                      TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

                      Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

                      D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Don1 View Post
                        LOL....Wha kina foolfool headline dat...

                        Who ave crystal ball fi projek dem ting dere inna dis yah time?? Man cyaan even projek dem ting dere fi di nex quarter ...much more fi years to come...ah wha dis Faada

                        Dem projekshan deh wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on...
                        DAMN Don1 !! ...suh the country must just live day by day...serious lack of vision.
                        Sunday, August 28th, 2011. We will never forget !!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          We lived day by day for years on delusions of 6% growth and jobs, jobs, jobs.. how do you feel about them apples now??

                          If you want continued statistical delusions without accountability...Run wid dat vision
                          TIVOLI: THE DESTRUCTION OF JAMAICA'S EVIL EMPIRE

                          Recognizing the victims of Jamaica's horrendous criminality and exposing the Dummies like Dippy supporting criminals by their deeds.. or their silence.

                          D1 - Xposing Dummies since 2007

                          Comment

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