RBSC

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Andrew ahead of Portia — Polls , 3% error

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Andrew ahead of Portia — Polls , 3% error

    JLP leader better to represent Ja locally and abroad

    Thursday, December 15, 2011

    A majority of Jamaicans believe that Andrew Holness is a better leader than Portia Simpson Miller to represent the country locally and overseas. This was one of the findings of the latest Observer/Don Anderson Polls conducted between December 5 and 11, 2011. Anderson and his Market Research Services team interviewed 1,000 registered voters in all parishes in the island, covering over 150 different locations. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.
    Asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country overseas, 44.2 per cent of Jamaicans polled said the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader and Prime Minister Andrew Holness, compared with 38.9 per cent who said People's National Party (PNP) leader and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.

    When asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country locally, a smaller majority of 42.9 per cent said Holness against 41.3 per cent who chose Simpson Miller.
    "Empirical data has shown that perception of the respective leaders has been an important issue in party support in previous elections, especially in the 90s and early to mid 2000s when PJ Patterson and Edward Seaga were the respective leaders of the PNP and the JLP," Anderson said in his notes to the polls.
    He noted that the recent elevation to the higher office of prime minister of the "generally highly regarded Holness has boosted his favourability rating amongst Jamaicans to the point where he is now better perceived than PNP leader Simpson Miller..."



    Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...#ixzz1gbBzuiDK

  • #2
    With a 3% error margin, how can these numbers mean anything? In terms of being able to represent the country locally:

    Say Holness 42.9 with + or - 3% is anywhere between 39.9-45.9% inclusive.
    Then Portia 41.3 with + or - 3% is anywhere between 38.3-44.4% inclusive.

    Can you make a conclusive statement here? Or is it too close to call?
    Furthermore, can the answer be more accurate than the least accurate value? Shouldn't the error be 3.0% or the percentages rounded to 43% and 41%? Then you have a difference of 2%, less than the margin of error.

    For the first question for overseas leadership:
    Holness got 44% (41-47)%
    S-Miller got 39% (36-42)%

    For Anderson's comments did he have a pre-PM rating for Holdness?

    Comment


    • #3
      I agree with you. The results show them to be statistically even for that question and it should be reported as such.
      "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

      Comment


      • #4
        This is the "fooling the people" thing that goes on...remember also that 'undecided' or 'swing' voters tend to go with the poll-leading party....
        So Don1 et al. - any comments on HOW the poll is being reported by the Observer and the pollster? Or is again par?

        Comment


        • #5
          The only poll that means anything to me is which candidate will win his/her seat. In other words, how many seats to each party?


          BLACK LIVES MATTER

          Comment


          • #6
            Have any polls been published recently which breaks it down to that level?
            "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

            Comment


            • #7
              Heard a comment on Nomination Day- The only poll that matters is the polling station
              Solidarity is not a matter of well wishing, but is sharing the very same fate whether in victory or in death.
              Che Guevara.

              Comment


              • #8
                So true. Good one!

                Comment


                • #9
                  The polls have been that way for the past few moths and that has never stopped the pnp ahead, jlp ahead headlines. The pollsters have already said that this year is too close for them to call.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    That means 16 percent are holding out for more money.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Have to raise the stakes for them. lol.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        very funny... lol...
                        'to get what we've never had, we MUST do what we've never done'

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          statistically a dead heat... it should not have been this close... in fact, the jlp should not be leading in the polls after what i've witnessed these past four years... i think i know the answer, but will remain mum at this time...
                          'to get what we've never had, we MUST do what we've never done'

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            For the Dudus fiasco alone, it should have been a walkover by the PNP.

                            One wonders why that is not the case.


                            BLACK LIVES MATTER

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Barack Obama said the other day:

                              "Don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative"

                              Nuff said.
                              "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X