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... Another nail-biting contest looms in Central Manchester
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
It could take a super slow-motion photo-finish camera to separate Peter Bunting and Danville Walker when the race for the Central Manchester seat ends on election night.
There is less than a whisker separating Bunting, the incumbent, who is representing the People's National Party's (PNP), and Walker, the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) representative, when people in the constituency are asked who they would like to win the next general election.
And the parties are in a statistical dead heat with the JLP leading by just a nose when voters are asked, which of the two they would be voting for.
A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found if the general election were called today, 31 per cent of voters would definitely vote JLP while six per cent would probably put their X beside that party's candidate, giving it a possible 37 per cent support and a close victory in the constituency it has not held since 1989.
Thirty-one per cent of the voters would definitely cast their ballot for the PNP with a further two per cent saying "probably PNP", giving that party 33 per cent support.
When asked in a separate question, which of the two they would want to see win, the voters are split evenly between Bunting (37 per cent) and Walker (37 per cent). A further 26 per cent of the voters are yet to decide which of the two they would prefer to see win.
Bunting's support is ahead of the PNP's 33 per cent backing, while Walker is hanging on the coat-tails of his party with his support being exactly in line with the JLP's 37 per cent.
Bunting won the seat for the PNP in 2007 with 8,453 votes, while the JLP's Sally Porteous polled 8,338 votes. Walker, who has worked as a director of elections and, more recently, commissioner of customs, recently replaced Porteous as the JLP's standard-bearer in the constituency.
Since then, the JLP has taken aim at the seat, one of approximately eight now held by the PNP, which the Andrew Holness-led party is going after.
Stiff fight for Bunting
With the new candidate in place for the JLP, Bunting has found himself facing another stiff fight in a constituency he won in the 2007 general election by 115 votes, after being selected to represent the PNP late in the day.
Four years later, as Bunting prepares for his first defence of his title, only 73 per cent of the people are able to identify him as their member of parliament.
More worrying for the PNP's general secretary is that only 36 per cent of the people believe that he should be re-elected, while 47 per cent say they want to see someone else in the seat, and 17 per cent say they are not sure.
Those who say Bunting should be re-elected argue that he is doing a good job (30 per cent), helps the community (14 per cent) and helps people (10 per cent). For those who think Bunting should be replaced, 41 per cent say he does nothing and is not working, while 36 per cent argue that he is not visible in the constituency.
Bunting's troubles are compounded, as 44 per cent of the residents in the Central Manchester constituency say they view him in an unfavourable light, 36 per cent see him in a favourable light and 20 per cent either say they are either not sure or could not identify him.
Walker, who was parachuted into the seat just over one month ago, enjoys a 30 per cent favourability rating, while 32 per cent view him in a negative light, but 38 per cent of the people are yet to make up their minds on the man whose entry into representational politics caught many Jamaicans by surprise.
Walker beating pavement
But Walker has been beating the pavement, with 34 per cent of the respondents saying they have seen him in their community recently, while 41 per cent say they have seen Bunting on their doorsteps in the past three months.
Central Manchester has left the hands of the PNP only once since it was created in 1967. After three straight victories, Winston Jones lost the seat to the JLP's Sydney Beaumont in 1980.
John Junor restored the PNP's dominance in 1989 and held the seat for four consecutive terms before calling it a day. Bunting continued the PNP's winning streak in 2007, but with one of the smallest margins of victory. Now he faces Walker with 6,999 new persons added to the voters' list since 2007.
The Gleaner-Bill Johnson Central Manchester poll was conducted on November 27 across the constituency with a sample size of 480 persons and a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2...ead/lead1.html
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
It could take a super slow-motion photo-finish camera to separate Peter Bunting and Danville Walker when the race for the Central Manchester seat ends on election night.
There is less than a whisker separating Bunting, the incumbent, who is representing the People's National Party's (PNP), and Walker, the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) representative, when people in the constituency are asked who they would like to win the next general election.
And the parties are in a statistical dead heat with the JLP leading by just a nose when voters are asked, which of the two they would be voting for.
A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found if the general election were called today, 31 per cent of voters would definitely vote JLP while six per cent would probably put their X beside that party's candidate, giving it a possible 37 per cent support and a close victory in the constituency it has not held since 1989.
Thirty-one per cent of the voters would definitely cast their ballot for the PNP with a further two per cent saying "probably PNP", giving that party 33 per cent support.
When asked in a separate question, which of the two they would want to see win, the voters are split evenly between Bunting (37 per cent) and Walker (37 per cent). A further 26 per cent of the voters are yet to decide which of the two they would prefer to see win.
Bunting's support is ahead of the PNP's 33 per cent backing, while Walker is hanging on the coat-tails of his party with his support being exactly in line with the JLP's 37 per cent.
Bunting won the seat for the PNP in 2007 with 8,453 votes, while the JLP's Sally Porteous polled 8,338 votes. Walker, who has worked as a director of elections and, more recently, commissioner of customs, recently replaced Porteous as the JLP's standard-bearer in the constituency.
Since then, the JLP has taken aim at the seat, one of approximately eight now held by the PNP, which the Andrew Holness-led party is going after.
Stiff fight for Bunting
With the new candidate in place for the JLP, Bunting has found himself facing another stiff fight in a constituency he won in the 2007 general election by 115 votes, after being selected to represent the PNP late in the day.
Four years later, as Bunting prepares for his first defence of his title, only 73 per cent of the people are able to identify him as their member of parliament.
More worrying for the PNP's general secretary is that only 36 per cent of the people believe that he should be re-elected, while 47 per cent say they want to see someone else in the seat, and 17 per cent say they are not sure.
Those who say Bunting should be re-elected argue that he is doing a good job (30 per cent), helps the community (14 per cent) and helps people (10 per cent). For those who think Bunting should be replaced, 41 per cent say he does nothing and is not working, while 36 per cent argue that he is not visible in the constituency.
Bunting's troubles are compounded, as 44 per cent of the residents in the Central Manchester constituency say they view him in an unfavourable light, 36 per cent see him in a favourable light and 20 per cent either say they are either not sure or could not identify him.
Walker, who was parachuted into the seat just over one month ago, enjoys a 30 per cent favourability rating, while 32 per cent view him in a negative light, but 38 per cent of the people are yet to make up their minds on the man whose entry into representational politics caught many Jamaicans by surprise.
Walker beating pavement
But Walker has been beating the pavement, with 34 per cent of the respondents saying they have seen him in their community recently, while 41 per cent say they have seen Bunting on their doorsteps in the past three months.
Central Manchester has left the hands of the PNP only once since it was created in 1967. After three straight victories, Winston Jones lost the seat to the JLP's Sydney Beaumont in 1980.
John Junor restored the PNP's dominance in 1989 and held the seat for four consecutive terms before calling it a day. Bunting continued the PNP's winning streak in 2007, but with one of the smallest margins of victory. Now he faces Walker with 6,999 new persons added to the voters' list since 2007.
The Gleaner-Bill Johnson Central Manchester poll was conducted on November 27 across the constituency with a sample size of 480 persons and a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2...ead/lead1.html