NBC Poll: Cain leads in S.C.; tight Fla. race with Romney

[Skeng DX]

'The road to the convention is going to go through these two states'

Former businessman Herman Cain holds a narrow lead in South Carolina’s Republican primary, and he’s running neck and neck in Florida with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to two new NBC News-Marist polls.

These two states have played pivotal roles in past Republican presidential nominating contests: Since 1980, the winner of South Carolina’s GOP primary has gone on to win the party’s nomination, while Florida ultimately decided the party’s pick in 2008. This cycle, South Carolina’s contest will occur on Jan. 21 and Florida’s will take place on Jan. 31.

“The road to the convention is going to go through these two states,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of Marist College’s Institute for Public Opinion.

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In South Carolina

(Download poll PDF), Cain gets the support of 30 percent of likely GOP primary voters — determined by past participation, interest and chance of vote — and Romney gets 26 percent. They’re followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 9 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 6 percent and Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5 percent each; 15 percent of likely primary voters are undecided.

Among a broader pool of Republicans in South Carolina, Cain is at 28 percent and Romney is at 27 percent.

In Florida (Download poll PDF), Cain is at 32 percent among likely voters, Romney at 31 percent, Perry at 8 percent and Paul and Gingrich are at 6 percent; 11 percent say they are undecided.

Among a broader range of Florida Republicans, Romney is at 30 percent and Cain is at 29 percent.

Breaking down the Cain vs. Romney divide

What is particularly striking is the difference in support between Cain and Romney in both states. Cain performs better among Tea Party backers, very conservative voters, evangelical Christians and Republicans who have viewed the past GOP debates.

Romney, by contrast, over-performs among Republicans who don’t identify with the Tea Party, as well as those who consider themselves liberals and moderates.

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“This is a very, very divided electorate,” said Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist Poll.

And there’s also a divide in the level of support. In South Carolina, 45 percent of Cain’s supporters in South Carolina strongly back him, versus 37 percent of Romney’s. In Florida, 52 percent of Cain’s supporters strongly back him, versus 41 percent of Romney’s.

As in the recent NBC-Marist polls of Iowa and New Hampshire — which showed Romney leading both contests — likely Republican voters in both South Carolina and Florida place more emphasis on issues and values than on experience and electability.

In South Carolina, a combined 58 percent say a candidate sharing their values or their positions on the issues is more important in deciding their vote. That’s compared with a combined 39 percent who say experience and electability will determine their vote.

In Florida, it’s a combined 54 percent for values and issues, versus 44 percent for experience and electability.

Also in South Carolina, 53 percent of likely GOP voters don’t believe Mormons are Christians, or say they are unsure about it. Among those respondents, Cain leads Romney (who is Mormon), 33 percent to 19 percent — with Perry at 11 percent.

In Florida, just 42 percent of likely GOP voters don’t believe Mormons are Christians or are unsure.

Obama vs. the GOP field

President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Florida — a key general-election state — stands at 41 percent, with 49 percent disapproving of his job performance.

In a hypothetical general-election match up in the Sunshine State, the president is up two points on Romney, 45 percent to 43 percent. He leads Cain by six points, 47 percent to 41 percent. And he’s ahead of Perry by eight points, 47 percent to 39 percent.

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In South Carolina — a GOP stronghold in presidential contests — Obama’s job-approval rating stands at 40 percent, and he trails Romney, Cain and Perry in head-to-head match ups in the Palmetto State.

The South Carolina survey was conducted Oct. 11-13 of 2,131 total registered voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 2.1 percentage points) and of 639 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 3.9 percentage points).

The Florida poll was conducted Oct. 10-12 of 2,225 total registered voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 2.1 percentage points) and of 524 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points).

[Bruce]

Herman Cain: A Koch-sucking whore, Wisconsin Dictator Osama bin Walker in black face.

[Islandman]

Cain Proposes electrical fence to kill Illegals

By EDWARD WYATT
Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain said Saturday that part of his immigration policy would be to build an electrified fence on the country’s border with Mexico that could kill people trying to enter the country illegally.

The remarks, which came at two campaign rallies in Tennessee as part of a barnstorming bus tour across the state, drew loud cheers from crowds of several hundred people at each rally. At the second stop, in Harriman, Tenn., Mr. Cain added that he also would consider using military troops “with real guns and real bullets” on the border to stop illegal immigration.

The remarks were among the most pointed yet by Mr. Cain about illegal immigration, and they come as he is enjoying a surge in national political polls on the back of his victory in a recent Florida straw poll. They also follow on remarks made by Representative Michele Bachmann on Saturday during a speech on illegal immigration in Iowa, in which she also advocated a border fence.

It is not the first time that Mr. Cain has floated the idea of an electrified fence. He has told the story many times of a caller to his former radio show who chastised him for talking about building a border fence, saying that such an idea was impractical. Mr. Cain often says he told the caller that he had recently returned from China, and if the Chinese could build the Great Wall then America could build a border fence.
Last summer, after President Obama remarked that some Republicans seemed to want a moat filled with alligators in addition to a fence, Mr. Cain responded by saying that he would indeed add an alligator-filled moat to his proposed fence, which would be topped with electrified barbed wire.

In his remarks on Saturday, Mr. Cain appeared to go a step further. Speaking to a rally sponsored by the Roane County Tea Party, Mr. Cain said that part of his plan would be to “secure the border for real” with a fence.

“It’s going to be 20 feet high. It’s going to have barbed wire on the top. It’s going to be electrified. And there’s going to be a sign on the other side saying, ‘It will kill you — Warning.’” At an earlier rally, on the campus of Tennessee Tech University in Cookeville, Tenn., he added that the sign would be written “in English and in Spanish.”

“This nation has always been a nation with wide open doors,” Mr. Cain said at the second rally. “We want to make it easy for people to come through the front door. And we’re going to shut off the back door so you don’t have to sneak into America.”

Saying that some critics have told him that his remarks about building a fence are insensitive, Mr. Cain said that the fault lies with the actions of some illegal immigrants. “It’s insensitive for them to be killing our citizens, killing our border agents,” he said. “That’s what’s insensitive. And that mess has to stop.”

In addition using a fence and unspecified “technology” to cut down on illegal immigration, Mr. Cain added: “If we have to put troops with real guns and real bullets for part of it, we can do that too.”

Brent Wilkes, Vice Chair of the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda, said Mr. Cain’s remarks were reflective of increasingly harsh prescriptions for dealing with illegal immigration being offered by Republican presidential candidates.

“These folks who come across the border are at most committing a misdemeanor,” Mr. Wilkes said. “To suggest that they would be electrocuted or shot would be to treat them harsher than we treat murderers or rapists. It’s a real distortion of the rule of law.”

Mr. Wilkes said Mr. Cain is mistaken when he implies that it would be easy for would-be Mexican immigrants to enter the country legally. In fact, he said, there are few if any visas available for Mexican nationals who do not have a firm job offer in this country or who do not already have relatives living here legally.

After long being considered an also-ran in the Republican field, Mr. Cain has surged into the spotlight following his victory in the Florida straw poll and because of interest in his unusual 9-9-9 tax plan, which would set personal and business income tax rates at 9 percent each and institute a 9 percent national sales tax, eliminating all other federal taxes.

The Tennessee tour, which began Friday near Memphis, Mr. Cain’s birthplace, has drawn crowds of several hundred supporters and curious onlookers at each of eight stops.

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