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It is not over until the fat lady sings
CHRIS BURNS
Monday, October 17, 2011
Like an armada, political pundits and prognosticators have been sailing up and down the country's political shores prematurely calling the results for the next general election; never mind that the date for the election has not yet been announced. Obviously, they must be looking through political crystal balls because some have even gone as far as to predict a repeat of the 1980 electoral landlside for the Jamaica Labour Party; all of this is coming on the heels of Andrew Holness's elevation to the coveted position of party leader and prospective prime minister.
Interestingly, in the stampede to make all kinds of wild predictions and to place false festoons on Holness's hibiscus tree, some people seem to have forgotten that a week is a long time in politics. Sometimes, the political smoke is bigger than the fire and the sweet aroma it carries can suffer sudden death. Everybody should "hold their horses" because the track is not ready and politics is as predictably odd as it is unpredictably weird.
No one should think that either Portia Simpson Miller (left) or Andrew Holness will be easy game.
Paradoxically still, nothing happens in politics by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way - bombshells and pretences notwithstanding. Therefore, it would be naive to assume that the 73-year old People's National Party, which is not headed by political neophytes, would sit idly by and risk being chafed by the coarseness of its own miscalculations and misreading of the political tea leaves, which were pointing to an imminent leadership change in the JLP and to some other game-changing announcements, as it plans its campaign strategy.
Moreover, political parties, the PNP included, build their strategies around well-developed and defined "perception grids" - mostly of the main target - which include indepth personality trait analysis.
Armed with these tools and a remarkably solid political history, the PNP would have known what to expect from Golding. It would have also known that the degree of difficulty surrounding its thrust to regain political power would increase exponentially when the prime target is taken out of the equation and the relatively younger and affable Andrew Holness is added. In the final analysis, and amidst all the hype and anxiety surrounding the JLP leadership swop, "it ain't over until the fat lady sings". Therefore, it may be wise to delay the political requiems because the PNP is anything but dead.
Furthermore, we have had many political Lazaruses in the past and we will most certainly have some in the future. We should learn to be less precipitate in declaring defeat or victory because, to paraphrase Prince Buster, like cats, politicians have 99 lives, and although you "pick 'im up, you lick 'im down, im bounce right back; what a hard man fi dead". That said, sometimes it appears we are helplessly devoted to, and are in love with forgetting our political history - however useful remembering certain events could be in guiding future actions.
For, it wasn't so long ago; in fact it was in 2006, that Portia Simpson Miller created history when she became the first PNP president and woman prime minister. The euphoria that surrounded her elevation to party president was palpable and her favourability rating topped the charts. Every opinion poll conducted immediately following her rise pointed to a landslide victory for the PNP and that made her appear more invincible than she really was.
Even Bruce Golding remarked, "If Portia calls the election now she would probably win the West Kingston seat". Still, after the dust settled, it was Bruce Golding's JLP that won the 2007 elections, albeit by the slimmest of margins. But, as my late father used to say, "Politics is just like show business; you have a hell of an opening, coast for a while, and then have a hell of a close.". The word "hell" in this saying is a fiddly political double entendre.
But even before Portia's rise, when Michael Manley announced his retirement in 1992, five people were identified as possible successors to Manley. Yet the late illustrious Professor Carl Stone wrote, "Patterson is by far the weakest of the alternatives. If he were to get the leadership of the PNP, Seaga would chew him up at the polls." Well, as accurate as the goodly professor had always been, as things turned out, Mr Patterson did all the political "chewing up" between 1993 and 2002. Interestingly, but more meaningfully, Mr Patterson himself, responded in a subsequent interview with the Gleaner, "I don't believe that anybody in the JLP feels that PJ Patterson is easy game." Advisedly, no one should think that either Portia or Andrew will be easy game.
Undoubtedly, both parties are being counselled by seasoned political strategists, but they would be well advised to make the next election less about the "target" and more about the goal. Going after the target may appeal to those on the political fringes and could excite the base. However, if the focus is directed towards the goal - the goal being whatever is in the best interest of Jamaica - the task of governance, post-election, could be easier. I say this because the election would centre on issues and experience. Both parties would be able to tell voters the truth about the state of our economy and country and about the solutions they can provide.
When all is said, it would be a sad day for our country, were we to make the next election about majoring in the minor or peripheral issues at the expense of fundamental ones. If we are to benefit from a truly enlightened democracy, it cannot be about the foolishness of who is younger than whom, or who is "nicer" than whom; it must be about policies and vision.
There are many sacred cows that the next government will have to take on. I speak here of pension, constitutional, tax and public sector reforms, restructuring the education and labour systems, restoring values and attitudes and driving long-term economic development and growth, all occurring simultaneously, as we redefine the role of the Jamaican state, not only as a lame facilitator, but as an active implementer.
Burnscg@aol.com
----
PL BOGLE
10/18/2011
Whose interests would these reforms serve and what are the main obstacles that stand in their way? Is it public opinion? whose interests take precedence, the Jamaican people or the IMF?
0o k
10/18/2011
After 18 1/2 of running Jamaica into the ground Comrades surely will not be minded to
A. reform pension, constitution, tax and public sector
B. restructure the education and labour systems
C. restore values and attitudes
D drive long-term economic development and growth
Will they .......taak the truth?
I think di fat lady done sing!
PL BOGLE
10/17/2011
I don't think people realize what in store for this country If the JLP is returned to power, very tough austerity measures will be taken, it will be a mixture of public spending cuts and higher taxes.The evidence is very clear the most rapid increases of the unemployment rate in the last one year were observed in countries that underwent very tough austerity.
Mr. Golding and Mr.Holness went to Washington DC to meet with the IMF but there were no breaking news or any news conference on their returned, only that they were committed to the IMF programme.
Nejeeper KNG
10/17/2011
The people need Security (Police stations, Timely and frequent patrols especially in high crime areas and Trust in the Security Force) Infrastructure (Schools, Road, Bridges and Street-lights). Some constituencies are so broken down and crime riddled it is nauseating to see representatives campaigning for votes. The JLPNP needs to have a debate on these issues, Garrison politics/safe-seats is dirty politics. So many are guilty!!
Jaye Stone
10/17/2011
It is time ignorant poor people get it into their heads that Portia is not a lover of the poor; she is a love of poverty. There is a big difference, folks!
And Andrew had better tell us what he meant when he claimed that Bruce "did nothing wrong" with regards to the Manatt-Dudus affair. Would he have done the same? 'Fess up, Holness!
St. Ann
10/17/2011
@ fall mouth. Meat Head failed to comprehend that the socialist countries economies are the ones that are showing growth, while capitalist countries are in a financial crisis and things are not getting any better, and to make matters worse the forecast is very gloomy.
fall mouth
10/17/2011
@Meat Head, I agree with you. To restore those old socialist policies in Jamaica would be disastrous. Look what it has done to China, Venezuela and Cuba on whose benevolence we depend on these days. Thank God for these countries.@Kevin Williams, you are behaving typically JLP, always tearing down people, instead of speaking about the issues. You would be so lucky if you were as senile as K.D. .
But you will always hate him won't you? After all he almost caused you to have a 1-term govt
Ras Benji
10/17/2011
Good balanced opinion writing Mr. Burns.
One Love!
Meat Head
10/17/2011
Agreed - it would be bad if we let peripheral issues decide the next election. However, it would be far worse if we returned to the same old socialist policies that have consistently failed us in the past.
James Bond
10/17/2011
Let me say it as it is, the JLP has just put on their cleanest dirty shirt, and chinch has the tendency to crawl from under the collar in public places. The JLP has based their political campaign on youth, Chris you and I are aware that experience and wisdom comes with age. The PNP has the brightest politicians seasoned pros, the JLP political machinery is no match for the formidable PNP. The PNP need to re-package M Manley plans and ideas, Bruce has revamped a few and he should be given credit.
Kevin Williams
10/17/2011
I really hope they make it about issues because the only thing coming from Porta Simpson mouth is that she loves poor people. While that approach may have worked in the 1970's this is a new era. The strategies of the PNP are outdated and irrelevant in this turbulent global economy. Just a word of advice for the PNP, they should reconsider having KD Knight so visable on there campaigns, the man is obviously senile.
wanda woeman
10/17/2011
We will soon see if the Prince is any different from our soon departed and unlamented B.G. Despite what his detractors might say, he is a brilliant if flawed man. But will A.H. keep Vaz as I.M; will he continue to lie to us and tell us that 2+2 is 5 when he knows we know differently; will they continue to blame the PNP for every act of commission and omission for 18 years, instead of getting on with the job, will we see achievements instead of hearing them mouthed?
The PNP should hope for their sakes that he moves to W.K, as that would effectively sound his death knell, but I hope for the nation’s sake that he does not, as he would be hamstrung and would soon fall into a similar trap as Bruce G.
And for heaven’s sake don’t look so happy for the job. It is a hard row to hoe and we are ungovernable.
Jay Brown
10/17/2011
IF only we could plan so carefully to build this country the way we plan for national elections, could you just imagine for a second where Jamaica could be today.
So it does not appear to be the ability to plan so much as the lack of a plan, which causes us to continue to fail.
James St. John
10/17/2011
Only one lady will be singing this time around, and she is not fat. PSM will be singing a tune for all Jamaicans, with the appropriate lyrics and the right tune.
James St. John
10/17/2011
To me, the fat lady, along with the not so fat lady have sung their tune, with piercing lyrics a long time ago.
10/17/2011
HURRAH! HURRAH!....There you go again CB.... making the plitical pundits in Jamaica look amateurish. Well balanced article...and always based arguments with the "Country First" mentality instead of "The Party First" and "Party Lovers" mentality of most of the others. Keep up the good (not so good now) name of Jamaica.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/colum...#ixzz1bD19MHCD
CHRIS BURNS
Monday, October 17, 2011
Like an armada, political pundits and prognosticators have been sailing up and down the country's political shores prematurely calling the results for the next general election; never mind that the date for the election has not yet been announced. Obviously, they must be looking through political crystal balls because some have even gone as far as to predict a repeat of the 1980 electoral landlside for the Jamaica Labour Party; all of this is coming on the heels of Andrew Holness's elevation to the coveted position of party leader and prospective prime minister.
Interestingly, in the stampede to make all kinds of wild predictions and to place false festoons on Holness's hibiscus tree, some people seem to have forgotten that a week is a long time in politics. Sometimes, the political smoke is bigger than the fire and the sweet aroma it carries can suffer sudden death. Everybody should "hold their horses" because the track is not ready and politics is as predictably odd as it is unpredictably weird.
No one should think that either Portia Simpson Miller (left) or Andrew Holness will be easy game.
Paradoxically still, nothing happens in politics by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way - bombshells and pretences notwithstanding. Therefore, it would be naive to assume that the 73-year old People's National Party, which is not headed by political neophytes, would sit idly by and risk being chafed by the coarseness of its own miscalculations and misreading of the political tea leaves, which were pointing to an imminent leadership change in the JLP and to some other game-changing announcements, as it plans its campaign strategy.
Moreover, political parties, the PNP included, build their strategies around well-developed and defined "perception grids" - mostly of the main target - which include indepth personality trait analysis.
Armed with these tools and a remarkably solid political history, the PNP would have known what to expect from Golding. It would have also known that the degree of difficulty surrounding its thrust to regain political power would increase exponentially when the prime target is taken out of the equation and the relatively younger and affable Andrew Holness is added. In the final analysis, and amidst all the hype and anxiety surrounding the JLP leadership swop, "it ain't over until the fat lady sings". Therefore, it may be wise to delay the political requiems because the PNP is anything but dead.
Furthermore, we have had many political Lazaruses in the past and we will most certainly have some in the future. We should learn to be less precipitate in declaring defeat or victory because, to paraphrase Prince Buster, like cats, politicians have 99 lives, and although you "pick 'im up, you lick 'im down, im bounce right back; what a hard man fi dead". That said, sometimes it appears we are helplessly devoted to, and are in love with forgetting our political history - however useful remembering certain events could be in guiding future actions.
For, it wasn't so long ago; in fact it was in 2006, that Portia Simpson Miller created history when she became the first PNP president and woman prime minister. The euphoria that surrounded her elevation to party president was palpable and her favourability rating topped the charts. Every opinion poll conducted immediately following her rise pointed to a landslide victory for the PNP and that made her appear more invincible than she really was.
Even Bruce Golding remarked, "If Portia calls the election now she would probably win the West Kingston seat". Still, after the dust settled, it was Bruce Golding's JLP that won the 2007 elections, albeit by the slimmest of margins. But, as my late father used to say, "Politics is just like show business; you have a hell of an opening, coast for a while, and then have a hell of a close.". The word "hell" in this saying is a fiddly political double entendre.
But even before Portia's rise, when Michael Manley announced his retirement in 1992, five people were identified as possible successors to Manley. Yet the late illustrious Professor Carl Stone wrote, "Patterson is by far the weakest of the alternatives. If he were to get the leadership of the PNP, Seaga would chew him up at the polls." Well, as accurate as the goodly professor had always been, as things turned out, Mr Patterson did all the political "chewing up" between 1993 and 2002. Interestingly, but more meaningfully, Mr Patterson himself, responded in a subsequent interview with the Gleaner, "I don't believe that anybody in the JLP feels that PJ Patterson is easy game." Advisedly, no one should think that either Portia or Andrew will be easy game.
Undoubtedly, both parties are being counselled by seasoned political strategists, but they would be well advised to make the next election less about the "target" and more about the goal. Going after the target may appeal to those on the political fringes and could excite the base. However, if the focus is directed towards the goal - the goal being whatever is in the best interest of Jamaica - the task of governance, post-election, could be easier. I say this because the election would centre on issues and experience. Both parties would be able to tell voters the truth about the state of our economy and country and about the solutions they can provide.
When all is said, it would be a sad day for our country, were we to make the next election about majoring in the minor or peripheral issues at the expense of fundamental ones. If we are to benefit from a truly enlightened democracy, it cannot be about the foolishness of who is younger than whom, or who is "nicer" than whom; it must be about policies and vision.
There are many sacred cows that the next government will have to take on. I speak here of pension, constitutional, tax and public sector reforms, restructuring the education and labour systems, restoring values and attitudes and driving long-term economic development and growth, all occurring simultaneously, as we redefine the role of the Jamaican state, not only as a lame facilitator, but as an active implementer.
Burnscg@aol.com
----
PL BOGLE
10/18/2011
Whose interests would these reforms serve and what are the main obstacles that stand in their way? Is it public opinion? whose interests take precedence, the Jamaican people or the IMF?
0o k
10/18/2011
After 18 1/2 of running Jamaica into the ground Comrades surely will not be minded to
A. reform pension, constitution, tax and public sector
B. restructure the education and labour systems
C. restore values and attitudes
D drive long-term economic development and growth
Will they .......taak the truth?
I think di fat lady done sing!
PL BOGLE
10/17/2011
I don't think people realize what in store for this country If the JLP is returned to power, very tough austerity measures will be taken, it will be a mixture of public spending cuts and higher taxes.The evidence is very clear the most rapid increases of the unemployment rate in the last one year were observed in countries that underwent very tough austerity.
Mr. Golding and Mr.Holness went to Washington DC to meet with the IMF but there were no breaking news or any news conference on their returned, only that they were committed to the IMF programme.
Nejeeper KNG
10/17/2011
The people need Security (Police stations, Timely and frequent patrols especially in high crime areas and Trust in the Security Force) Infrastructure (Schools, Road, Bridges and Street-lights). Some constituencies are so broken down and crime riddled it is nauseating to see representatives campaigning for votes. The JLPNP needs to have a debate on these issues, Garrison politics/safe-seats is dirty politics. So many are guilty!!
Jaye Stone
10/17/2011
It is time ignorant poor people get it into their heads that Portia is not a lover of the poor; she is a love of poverty. There is a big difference, folks!
And Andrew had better tell us what he meant when he claimed that Bruce "did nothing wrong" with regards to the Manatt-Dudus affair. Would he have done the same? 'Fess up, Holness!
St. Ann
10/17/2011
@ fall mouth. Meat Head failed to comprehend that the socialist countries economies are the ones that are showing growth, while capitalist countries are in a financial crisis and things are not getting any better, and to make matters worse the forecast is very gloomy.
fall mouth
10/17/2011
@Meat Head, I agree with you. To restore those old socialist policies in Jamaica would be disastrous. Look what it has done to China, Venezuela and Cuba on whose benevolence we depend on these days. Thank God for these countries.@Kevin Williams, you are behaving typically JLP, always tearing down people, instead of speaking about the issues. You would be so lucky if you were as senile as K.D. .
But you will always hate him won't you? After all he almost caused you to have a 1-term govt
Ras Benji
10/17/2011
Good balanced opinion writing Mr. Burns.
One Love!
Meat Head
10/17/2011
Agreed - it would be bad if we let peripheral issues decide the next election. However, it would be far worse if we returned to the same old socialist policies that have consistently failed us in the past.
James Bond
10/17/2011
Let me say it as it is, the JLP has just put on their cleanest dirty shirt, and chinch has the tendency to crawl from under the collar in public places. The JLP has based their political campaign on youth, Chris you and I are aware that experience and wisdom comes with age. The PNP has the brightest politicians seasoned pros, the JLP political machinery is no match for the formidable PNP. The PNP need to re-package M Manley plans and ideas, Bruce has revamped a few and he should be given credit.
Kevin Williams
10/17/2011
I really hope they make it about issues because the only thing coming from Porta Simpson mouth is that she loves poor people. While that approach may have worked in the 1970's this is a new era. The strategies of the PNP are outdated and irrelevant in this turbulent global economy. Just a word of advice for the PNP, they should reconsider having KD Knight so visable on there campaigns, the man is obviously senile.
wanda woeman
10/17/2011
We will soon see if the Prince is any different from our soon departed and unlamented B.G. Despite what his detractors might say, he is a brilliant if flawed man. But will A.H. keep Vaz as I.M; will he continue to lie to us and tell us that 2+2 is 5 when he knows we know differently; will they continue to blame the PNP for every act of commission and omission for 18 years, instead of getting on with the job, will we see achievements instead of hearing them mouthed?
The PNP should hope for their sakes that he moves to W.K, as that would effectively sound his death knell, but I hope for the nation’s sake that he does not, as he would be hamstrung and would soon fall into a similar trap as Bruce G.
And for heaven’s sake don’t look so happy for the job. It is a hard row to hoe and we are ungovernable.
Jay Brown
10/17/2011
IF only we could plan so carefully to build this country the way we plan for national elections, could you just imagine for a second where Jamaica could be today.
So it does not appear to be the ability to plan so much as the lack of a plan, which causes us to continue to fail.
James St. John
10/17/2011
Only one lady will be singing this time around, and she is not fat. PSM will be singing a tune for all Jamaicans, with the appropriate lyrics and the right tune.
James St. John
10/17/2011
To me, the fat lady, along with the not so fat lady have sung their tune, with piercing lyrics a long time ago.
10/17/2011
HURRAH! HURRAH!....There you go again CB.... making the plitical pundits in Jamaica look amateurish. Well balanced article...and always based arguments with the "Country First" mentality instead of "The Party First" and "Party Lovers" mentality of most of the others. Keep up the good (not so good now) name of Jamaica.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/colum...#ixzz1bD19MHCD
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