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THE possibility that 'prime minister-designate' Andrew Holness may vacate his West Central St Andrew seat in favour of the totally safe JLP seat of West Kingston is not an equation that would balance well with a young man about to face even bigger challenges.
First, to do so would place him in the same old, same old, tired, stale politics of the past. It would signal to many people that his reform agenda, which must merge with 'continuity' — that is, getting the macro-economic variables on a steadier course in a harsh economic global environment — is somewhat out of whack.
Knowing the political realities, I can appreciate the concerns of the JLP. Those concerns would be the Opposition PNP throwing a disproportionate amount of its election campaign machinery in the constituency to ensure that it will be no walkover for Holness. To counter that, the JLP would flood the constituency with resources of personnel and funds. Second would be the 'dirty tricks'. This is where politicians speak clean but, on the ground, they let slip the dogs of war.
Over many years, that has been the feature of both political parties in certain 'sensitive' constituencies. In that nasty feature, seemingly senseless bouts of violence occur and the orange and green brigade launch out in blame and counter-blame.
The fear that the JLP could have is that Holness could be caught up in the middle of this and such a focus would prove a disaster to him and the JLP. He could win his seat but the local battle, if it is made hot for Holness, who is known to be a clean operator, could cost the JLP the election.
My advice to him would be, first, avoid the West Kingston seat at all costs. Second, at the beginning of the election campaign in his constituency, invite his PNP opponent to form a committee to sit with his own for the specific purpose of staving off the possibility of political violence. Third, invite a reputable entity like CAFFE to sit on the committee plus have its agents on the ground.
I have seen enough of Jamaican politics to know that the 'win at all costs' route invariably includes scare tactics and that usually transforms itself into political intimidation and violence. Worse, when one side recognises that its chances of winning are slipping away, depending on who the other candidate is, sometimes it suits the impending loser to cause as much harm as possible until the ballots are counted. Public perception plays a big role there.
With the poll trend favouring a growth in JLP strength caused by the emergence of Andrew Holness, his support on the ground in his own constituency should earn him rich electoral rewards. Residents of those impoverished constituencies pockmarked with garrison pockets are very pragmatic people.
Once the residents of West Central St Andrew are turned on to the reality that Holness is the prime minister, the benefits which they perceive will return to the constituency will bring about a 'wagonist' effect.
As to whether PM Holness can deliver on those expected benefits, that will be left up to old father time.
To me, the ideal person for the West Kingston seat is JLP Senator Tom Tavares-Finson. He knows the constituency intimately, has spent quite a long time on the ground there and he shares a special relationship with many of its residents, some of whom he has provided assistance to in education, infrastructure and in health issues.
Andrew Holness has no business in a constituency that he knows little about. He should not even harbour the thought of 'abandoning' the constituents of West Central St Andrew just to score a cheap political point. Should he do that, I would expect to see his national ratings fall rapidly, simply because he would have proven himself to be a man who would be prepared to turn his back on the 'little people' for the sake of raw politics.
The Andrew Holness I know is made of sterner stuff.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/colum...#ixzz1awICwcQi
First, to do so would place him in the same old, same old, tired, stale politics of the past. It would signal to many people that his reform agenda, which must merge with 'continuity' — that is, getting the macro-economic variables on a steadier course in a harsh economic global environment — is somewhat out of whack.
Knowing the political realities, I can appreciate the concerns of the JLP. Those concerns would be the Opposition PNP throwing a disproportionate amount of its election campaign machinery in the constituency to ensure that it will be no walkover for Holness. To counter that, the JLP would flood the constituency with resources of personnel and funds. Second would be the 'dirty tricks'. This is where politicians speak clean but, on the ground, they let slip the dogs of war.
Over many years, that has been the feature of both political parties in certain 'sensitive' constituencies. In that nasty feature, seemingly senseless bouts of violence occur and the orange and green brigade launch out in blame and counter-blame.
The fear that the JLP could have is that Holness could be caught up in the middle of this and such a focus would prove a disaster to him and the JLP. He could win his seat but the local battle, if it is made hot for Holness, who is known to be a clean operator, could cost the JLP the election.
My advice to him would be, first, avoid the West Kingston seat at all costs. Second, at the beginning of the election campaign in his constituency, invite his PNP opponent to form a committee to sit with his own for the specific purpose of staving off the possibility of political violence. Third, invite a reputable entity like CAFFE to sit on the committee plus have its agents on the ground.
I have seen enough of Jamaican politics to know that the 'win at all costs' route invariably includes scare tactics and that usually transforms itself into political intimidation and violence. Worse, when one side recognises that its chances of winning are slipping away, depending on who the other candidate is, sometimes it suits the impending loser to cause as much harm as possible until the ballots are counted. Public perception plays a big role there.
With the poll trend favouring a growth in JLP strength caused by the emergence of Andrew Holness, his support on the ground in his own constituency should earn him rich electoral rewards. Residents of those impoverished constituencies pockmarked with garrison pockets are very pragmatic people.
Once the residents of West Central St Andrew are turned on to the reality that Holness is the prime minister, the benefits which they perceive will return to the constituency will bring about a 'wagonist' effect.
As to whether PM Holness can deliver on those expected benefits, that will be left up to old father time.
To me, the ideal person for the West Kingston seat is JLP Senator Tom Tavares-Finson. He knows the constituency intimately, has spent quite a long time on the ground there and he shares a special relationship with many of its residents, some of whom he has provided assistance to in education, infrastructure and in health issues.
Andrew Holness has no business in a constituency that he knows little about. He should not even harbour the thought of 'abandoning' the constituents of West Central St Andrew just to score a cheap political point. Should he do that, I would expect to see his national ratings fall rapidly, simply because he would have proven himself to be a man who would be prepared to turn his back on the 'little people' for the sake of raw politics.
The Andrew Holness I know is made of sterner stuff.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/colum...#ixzz1awICwcQi