Tweet
The Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) leader in waiting, Andrew Holness, is the only Labourite who could seriously test the People's National Party's (PNP) Portia Simpson Miller in any election at this time, according to the latest Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll.
Holness, who was overwhelmingly endorsed by the JLP's senior parliamentarians yesterday, is locked in a statistical dead heat with Simpson Miller as the people's choice to lead the Government.
According to the poll, Simpson Miller holds a slight four percentage points advantage over Holness, but that is within the margin of error and sets the stage for a mouth-watering clash if the 39-year-old Turk and the 65-year-old former prime minister lead their parties into the next general election.
The pollster found that if Holness and Simpson Miller lead their parties, 44 per cent of Jamaicans would select the PNP president as prime minister while 40 per cent would choose the JLP leader-designate.
Fifteen per cent of the respondents said they were undecided while one per cent refused to answer.
Right move
Jamaicans were responding to the question about who would be their choice for prime minister as things stand now and the result suggests that the JLP parliamentarians made the right move when they decided to almost uniformly line up behind Holness yesterday.
Holness towers over all those in the second tier of the PNP, including Campaign Director Dr Peter Phillips and General Secretary Peter Bunting.
The poll also found that none of the other people who initially put their names forward as a possible replacement for Bruce Golding, including Audley Shaw and Dr Christopher Tufton, came close to Simpson Miller as the people's choice for prime minister.
The Gleaner-commissioned poll was conducted by Bill Johnson on Saturday, October 1 and Sunday, October 2 in 84 communities across the island.
It has a sample size of 1,008 people with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent
"Holness would be a stronger influence on how people vote than Tufton or Shaw, but it's difficult to say how that would translate to the result of an election," Johnson said.
"People in Jamaica vote based on three areas - party identification, the local candidate, and who they would like to be the prime minister," added Johnson.
According to the poll, Holness would be by far the popular choice for prime minister if the PNP was headed by Phillips or Bunting at this time.
Of the other people who had emerged as top aspirants for the post of JLP leader before pulling out yesterday, the poll found that Shaw trailed Simpson Miller almost two to one as the popular choice for the top job in the Government.
Tufton fared a little better, but with 48 per cent of the respondents saying they would choose Simpson Miller and 34 per cent saying they would give him the nod, it appeared unlikely that he could lead his party to an election victory.
The poll also found that Shaw trailed both Phillips and Bunting as the person Jamaicans would want most as prime minister.
In the case of Tufton, the respondents placed him in a statistical dead heat with Bunting and Phillips as the right man to lead the Government.
The last time a Gleaner-commissioned poll checked the popularity rating of Simpson Miller and Golding, the outgoing prime minister, was in May and June of this year.
At that time, 42 per cent of Jamaicans said Simpson Miller would do a better job as prime minister while 31 per cent of the respondents said Golding would do a better job.
Holness, who was overwhelmingly endorsed by the JLP's senior parliamentarians yesterday, is locked in a statistical dead heat with Simpson Miller as the people's choice to lead the Government.
According to the poll, Simpson Miller holds a slight four percentage points advantage over Holness, but that is within the margin of error and sets the stage for a mouth-watering clash if the 39-year-old Turk and the 65-year-old former prime minister lead their parties into the next general election.
The pollster found that if Holness and Simpson Miller lead their parties, 44 per cent of Jamaicans would select the PNP president as prime minister while 40 per cent would choose the JLP leader-designate.
Fifteen per cent of the respondents said they were undecided while one per cent refused to answer.
Right move
Jamaicans were responding to the question about who would be their choice for prime minister as things stand now and the result suggests that the JLP parliamentarians made the right move when they decided to almost uniformly line up behind Holness yesterday.
Holness towers over all those in the second tier of the PNP, including Campaign Director Dr Peter Phillips and General Secretary Peter Bunting.
The poll also found that none of the other people who initially put their names forward as a possible replacement for Bruce Golding, including Audley Shaw and Dr Christopher Tufton, came close to Simpson Miller as the people's choice for prime minister.
The Gleaner-commissioned poll was conducted by Bill Johnson on Saturday, October 1 and Sunday, October 2 in 84 communities across the island.
It has a sample size of 1,008 people with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent
"Holness would be a stronger influence on how people vote than Tufton or Shaw, but it's difficult to say how that would translate to the result of an election," Johnson said.
"People in Jamaica vote based on three areas - party identification, the local candidate, and who they would like to be the prime minister," added Johnson.
According to the poll, Holness would be by far the popular choice for prime minister if the PNP was headed by Phillips or Bunting at this time.
Of the other people who had emerged as top aspirants for the post of JLP leader before pulling out yesterday, the poll found that Shaw trailed Simpson Miller almost two to one as the popular choice for the top job in the Government.
Tufton fared a little better, but with 48 per cent of the respondents saying they would choose Simpson Miller and 34 per cent saying they would give him the nod, it appeared unlikely that he could lead his party to an election victory.
The poll also found that Shaw trailed both Phillips and Bunting as the person Jamaicans would want most as prime minister.
In the case of Tufton, the respondents placed him in a statistical dead heat with Bunting and Phillips as the right man to lead the Government.
The last time a Gleaner-commissioned poll checked the popularity rating of Simpson Miller and Golding, the outgoing prime minister, was in May and June of this year.
At that time, 42 per cent of Jamaicans said Simpson Miller would do a better job as prime minister while 31 per cent of the respondents said Golding would do a better job.
Comment